EU Market Open: Crude pulls back while US assets tread water ahead of the FOMC

US VP Vance told the NY Post that the conflict with Iran is expected to shift into a "much different phase" in the coming months.A US official said the military and Gulf countries have begun conducting daytime tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz, rather than only at night as in recent months, according to Axios.Crude futures pulled back after rallying again yesterday as a series of geopolitical and supply headlines lifted the benchmarks.APAC stocks were mixed in choppy trade, albeit with sentiment gradually improving; European equity futures indicate a modestly positive cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Inflation (Aug), Italian Inflation Final (Aug), ECB Wage Tracker (Aug), US Retail Sales (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), New Zealand GDP (Q2), Fed Policy Announcement, BCB Policy Announcement, BoC Minutes. Speakers include ECB's Vujcic, Elderson & Nagel, Fed Chair Warsh. Supply from Germany.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said Iranian forces have full control of the Strait of Hormuz and will prevent enemy vessels from crossing.The Bank of England has reportedly written plans with the DMO to overhaul its money-printing programme, with plans to stop selling 20- and 30-year gilts, according to the Telegraph.Global equities continue to be weighed on by higher energy prices and bond yields.DXY edges higher; GBP unreactive following a mixed jobs report.Fixed income benchmarks fall, with USTs underperforming; Gilts little moved amid the Telegraph report.Energy benchmarks remain at elevated levels as Houthis continue to strike Saudi military sites.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly. Speakers include ECB's Cipollone and US Treasury Secretary Bessent. Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Crude futures remained firmer amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as Yemeni Houthis continued to target areas in Saudi Arabia, while Iran reiterated an unwillingness to negotiate an agreement with the US.IRGC Navy said the Strait of Hormuz is closed and remains under its control, according to Tasnim.APAC stocks traded mostly lower following the recent tech selling that was triggered by calls from industry CEOs for a slowdown in AI development; European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open.10yr UST futures declined amid gains in oil prices and after the US 10yr yield hit 5% for the first time since 2023; DXY edged higher in APAC trade.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Jobs/Wages (Jul), French/Spanish Inflation Final (Aug), German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Sep), and US ADP Employment Change Weekly. Speakers include ECB's Cipollone. Supply from the UK, Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said that Saudi Arabia insisted that the meeting between Iran and Gulf nations in Oman not to take place and it will be postponed to another date due to the Yemen situation.US President Trump said he warned Ukraine to stop targeting Russian oil refineries, as strikes have shut down diesel refining and helped lift prices of the fuel to record levels.Anthropic CEO Amodei urged a slowdown in the development of the most advanced AI systems to prevent AI from slipping beyond human control.US equity futures fall, Semis hit the hardest on worries of less capex investment.DXY firms on Fed rate hike bets and higher energy prices; JPY underperforms.Fixed income benchmarks mixed despite higher energy prices (Brent +2.7%).Looking ahead, highlights include the Canadian CPI (Aug). Speakers include ECB's Cipollone & Lagarde.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Crude futures began the week higher, with Saudi Arabia shutting its East-West Pipeline following attacks last week.Oman postponed the Persian Gulf meeting on Monday, where Iran had planned to formally unveil a temporary shipping lane agreement for the Strait of Hormuz.US President Trump said he warned Ukraine to stop targeting Russian oil refineries, as strikes have shut down diesel refining and helped lift prices of the fuel to record levels.AI-related selling was seen in APAC stocks after key industry executives called for a slowdown in AI development.APAC stocks were ultimately mixed after gradually improving from the initial risk-off mood seen at the start of the session; Europe is poised to open subdued.Looking ahead, highlights include the Swedish CPIF Final (Aug), Canadian CPI (Aug). Speakers include ECB's Schnabel, Cipollone & Lagarde.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Gulf Foreign Ministers plan to meet with their Iranian counterpart in an effort by Oman and Iran to secure a deal on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, according to FT.Saudi Crown Prince MBS called President Trump twice on Thursday, urging him to launch strikes against Houthis, but Trump declined.IEA OMR sees 2026 world oil demand falling more than prior due to the impasse in US-Iran talks.US equity futures are bid; Oracle shares gain after a strong earnings report.DXY flat heading into US CPI; G10s are mixed against the USD.Fixed income benchmarks stabilise following Thursday's selloff; Gilts little moved after upbeat growth figures.Energy benchmarks fall on hopes of a Hormuz deal.Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI (Aug), US University of Michigan Survey Prelim (Sep), CBR Announcement. Speakers include ECB’s Lagarde & Lane. Earnings from Kroger.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump told reporters that the Iran war could end before the election, and there is no chance the Iran war will last through the rest of his term.Saudi Crown Prince MBS called President Trump twice on Thursday, urging him to launch strikes against Houthis, but Trump declined.US senior official told Israel's Channel 13 that Iran is planning a "major attack" involving Israel due to the pressure it is under.Crude futures paused overnight after surging yesterday, which saw WTI breach USD 104/bbl, and Brent climb to just shy of USD 110/bbl.APAC stocks were pressured, with global risk sentiment weighed by a further surge in oil prices; European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP (Jul), US CPI (Aug), US University of Michigan Survey Prelim (Sep), IEA OMR, CBR Announcement. Speakers include US President Trump, ECB’s Lagarde & Lane. Earnings from Kroger.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he thinks war with Iran will end immediately after the election and will do much more than a nuclear deal.US President Trump said he will give a 'Trump dividend' to every adult in the US of USD 5,000 if Republicans win the Midterm elections, while he added that the dividend must be spent in the US.US equity futures lack a clear direction as markets await US PPI.DXY rangebound; EUR waits for the ECB rate decision, NOK slightly softer following cooler-than-expected core CPI.Fixed income benchmarks continue to be at the mercy of higher energy prices (Brent +1.3%).Looking ahead, highlights include US PPI (Aug), Jobless Claims (Sep/05), Existing Home Sales (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), ECB Announcement, CBRT Announcement, OPEC MOMR. Speakers include ECB President Lagarde. Supply from the US. Earnings from Oracle & Adobe.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he thinks war with Iran will end immediately after the election and will do much more than a nuclear deal.US President Trump said he will give a 'Trump dividend' to every adult in the US of USD 5,000 if Republicans win the Midterm elections, while he added that the dividend must be spent in the US.Crude futures took a breather after extending their gains yesterday alongside the current backdrop of escalating US/Iran and Saudi/Yemen tensions, which lifted Brent crude north of the USD 100/bbl level.10yr UST futures remained subdued after yields rose alongside higher oil prices and following the Treasury's long-end buyback announcement of a maximum of USD 6bln of 10yr-20yr nominal coupons on Thursday.APAC stocks were mostly lower following the losses stateside; European equity futures indicate a flat/firmer cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include German Final CPI (Aug), Norwegian CPI (Aug), Swedish GDP (Jul), US PPI (Aug), Jobless Claims (Sep/05), Existing Home Sales (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), ECB Announcement, CBRT Announcement, OPEC MOMR. Speakers include US President Trump and ECB President Lagarde. Supply from the UK, Italy, and the US. Earnings from Oracle & Adobe.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US forces struck multiple Iranian tankers tied to the IRGC in response to more attempted missile attacks on a US Navy warship; Iran launched missiles at targets in response to US strikes on tankers, while it launched at least 20 missiles at bases in Jordan.IRGC had warned that oil tanker crews in Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports would be targeted in light of the US Army targeting several Iranian oil tankers.US equity futures are slightly softer; Google announces a EUR 13bln AI infrastructure in Finland.DXY rebounds off lows but remains under pressure; JPY continues to gain after daring comments from US Treasury Secretary Bessent.Fixed income benchmarks falter as Brent regains the USD 100/bbl mark, with focus on the Treasury buyback announcement.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, US Treasury Long-End Bond Buybacks Announcement, NBP Announcement, EIA STEO. Comments from ECB's Lagarde. Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk