China's Grey-Zone Strategy - Expanding Control Without War

Taiwan's local elections are approaching—but could the battle for Taipei signal something bigger? In this first episode of our election series, Neil O'Sullivan is joined by Brian Hioe, founding editor of New Bloom Magazine, to examine the upcoming Taiwan local elections and one of their most closely watched contests: the Taipei mayoral race. Can incumbent KMT mayor Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) secure a second term, or could DPP challenger Puma Shen (沈伯洋) —with his background in criminology and civil society work combating Chinese disinformation—pull off an electoral upset? We explore the momentum behind Shen's campaign, the significance of the Taipei contest, the potential impact of Taiwan's booming economy, and the possibility of Chinese interference in the elections. Beyond Taipei, could DPP gains in northern Taiwan challenge the KMT's traditional political stronghold and reshape the political landscape ahead of Taiwan's 2028 parliamentary elections? Recorded in Taipei's Wanhua district, this is an insightful conversation about Taiwan politics, electoral dynamics, democracy and the challenges facing Taiwan as it prepares to vote. Guest: Brian Hioe — founding editor, New Bloom Magazine; non-resident Fellow, University of Nottingham Taiwan Studies programme. Follow Perspectives with Neilo for further coverage of Taiwan's elections and the issues shaping freedom and democracy. More information and sources: https://www.pwneilo.com

How does China expand its influence and exert control over its neighbours without triggering open conflict? From the disputed waters of the South China Sea to the waters and airspace around Taiwan, Beijing is increasingly using grey-zone tactics to advance its strategic objectives. These activities — involving coast guard deployments, maritime militia, military pressure and other forms of coercion — challenge regional security while remaining below the threshold of conventional warfare. In this episode of Perspectives with Neilo, I welcome back Ray Powell, Director of SeaLight at Stanford University's Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, to examine China's evolving grey-zone strategy across the western Pacific. We explore the strategic significance of the Iron Triangle in the South China Sea, how China's expanding military operations around Taiwan risk normalising increasingly coercive behaviour, and the role of the Chinese Communist Party's United Front Work Department in the Philippines. We also examine how Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro is responding to these challenges. What is Beijing seeking to achieve through these activities? How can countries counter China's growing pressure without escalating tensions into open conflict? And what can the Philippines' experience tell us about the wider challenge facing democracies? Ray brings his expertise in maritime security and the monitoring of grey-zone operations to a discussion about the implications for Taiwan, the Philippines and the wider Indo-Pacific. Listen to this episode of Perspectives with Neilo for a closer look at China's grey-zone strategy — and the growing challenge of defending national sovereignty and regional security without a conventional war.

China’s new Ethnic Unity Law raises a troubling question: how far can Beijing’s reach extend beyond China’s borders? Under President Xi Jinping, repression of China’s ethnic and religious minorities has intensified for more than a decade. The treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang, Tibetans and other minority communities has been accompanied by growing restrictions on language, culture, religion and political expression. Now, China’s Ethnic Unity and Progress Law, which came into force on July 1st, 2026, takes that trajectory a step further. Beijing says the law is intended to strengthen ethnic unity and create a shared national identity. Critics argue that it further institutionalises assimilation and gives the Chinese Communist Party greater control over the cultural and religious identity of China’s minorities. But there is another significant dimension. The law contains provisions concerning organisations and individuals outside China who are deemed to undermine ethnic unity or create ethnic division — raising concerns about its potential use as a tool of transnational repression. So what does the new law actually mean? How does it fit into Xi Jinping’s broader policies towards China’s ethnic minorities? And what could its extraterritorial provisions mean for people outside China who speak out about human rights abuses? In this episode, I speak with Dr David O’Brien, an Irish anthropologist who has spent years working in China and is now a lecturer at Jagiellonian University in Kraków. We examine China’s new Ethnic Unity and Progress Law, its implications for Uyghurs, Tibetans and other ethnic minorities, the tension between the law and China’s constitutional framework, and how the legislation could further codify transnational repression. What happens when a government attempts to extend its definition of “ethnic unity” beyond its own borders — and what does that mean for freedom of expression and human rights? ./ ./ Audio Credits: Intro music: Suspense by ArctSound via Pixabay UN speech excerpts - Audio provided by the United Nations / UN Geneva Multimedia Newsroom

How Taiwan Became the Republic of Chips How did Taiwan go from a largely agricultural, labour-intensive economy with little semiconductor expertise to becoming one of the most important centres of chip manufacturing in the world? That is the remarkable story explored in A Chip Odyssey, the documentary directed by Hsiao Chu-Chen. Made over five years and featuring more than 80 interviews with people who witnessed and helped shape Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, the film traces Taiwan’s extraordinary journey — from the pioneering engineers sent overseas to acquire vital skills and knowledge, to the development of a world-leading semiconductor industry and the emergence of TSMC, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. But A Chip Odyssey is about more than technology and economics. It is also a story about people, ambition, sacrifice and the transformation of Taiwan itself — and how the semiconductor industry became intertwined with Taiwan’s economic development, international position and security. In this episode of Perspectives with Neilo, I take you to Dublin’s Savoy Cinema, where A Chip Odyssey was screened as part of Culture Night 2026. I spoke with Evan Furlong of the Dublin School of Mandarin Chinese, Richard Casey, CEO of Primesel, Senator Gerard Craughwell, and Mark and Aoife Kelly, co-founders of Celtonn. They share their impressions of Taiwan, their thoughts on the island’s remarkable semiconductor industry, and what they took away from A Chip Odyssey. Their perspectives provide a fascinating look at how Taiwan’s semiconductor story is understood from Ireland — from those involved in organising the screening, to people working in technology and business, and an Irish political perspective. From the pioneering engineers of the 1970s to TSMC and today’s global semiconductor race, this is the story of how Taiwan became the Republic of Chips — and why that story matters far beyond Taiwan. Perspectives with Neilo — going beyond the headlines to examine how history, foreign influence and competing narratives shape modern democracies. / / Link to movie: https://youtu.be/zmNk3UwkVvU?si=G3sonkkLiP4eWlYN

On August 26th, 2026, a catastrophic flash flood tore through the Tibet–Nepal border region, destroying infrastructure, devastating communities and leaving more than a thousand people dead, with thousands still missing. But this disaster raises questions that go beyond the immediate human tragedy. What caused the flood? How quickly did the disaster unfold? And, perhaps most importantly, could people downstream have received an earlier warning? In this episode of Perspectives with Neilo, I examine the disaster and the growing information gap surrounding it — including China's restrictions on independent access to the Tibetan side, conflicting casualty figures, and Beijing's insistence that it has been open, transparent and timely in releasing information. I also look at what was known about the risks before the disaster, including a May meeting between Chinese and Nepalese officials to discuss glacier and flood hazards, and the questions surrounding the sharing of information. With China possessing extensive technological and surveillance capabilities across Tibet, and modern technology making early-warning systems increasingly possible, another question emerges: What could have been detected? What was known? And was potentially life-saving information shared across the border? I also examine questions surrounding infrastructure development in the region, Nepal’s relationship with China, and what we still don't know about one of the Himalayas' most devastating recent disasters. The Tibet–Nepal Flood: Disaster, Censorship and the Search for Answers. Perspectives with Neilo — a podcast for people who believe freedom and democracy are worth defending.

Ireland has maintained a policy of military neutrality for decades—but neutrality does not mean opting out of defence. After decades of comparatively low investment, Ireland's defence capabilities now face serious gaps in areas ranging from military radar and maritime surveillance to airspace monitoring and responses to modern hybrid and drone threats. At the same time, Ireland increasingly relies on external partners for capabilities essential to its national security. So what does that mean for Irish neutrality—and for Irish sovereignty? If Ireland wants to remain neutral, is it prepared to invest in the capabilities needed to defend that neutrality? Or does reliance on other countries for essential security capabilities create a contradiction at the heart of Ireland's model of military neutrality? And while NATO membership is sometimes presented as an alternative, alliance membership also comes with financial, military and political obligations. In this episode of Perspectives with Neilo, Neil O'Sullivan speaks with Cathal Berry, Director of Public Affairs for Red Flag, former TD and former Irish Army Ranger Captain. Recorded at the MacGill Summer School following a debate on Irish neutrality, Cathal discusses the consequences of decades of underinvestment in Irish defence, the vulnerabilities this has created, Ireland's dependence on external partners, and the challenges posed by an increasingly uncertain security environment. And can Ireland be genuinely neutral, sovereign and secure without being prepared to pay for the defence capabilities necessary to protect that independence? For additional information and sources relating to this episode, visit the Dive Deeper section of our blog at pwneilo.com. Perspectives with Neilo — a podcast for people who believe freedom and democracy are worth defending.

What is life really like in Ukraine after more than four years of Russia’s full-scale invasion? And how is the war changing on the ground? In this episode of Perspectives with Neilo, Neil O’Sullivan speaks with Professor Donnacha Ó Beacháin, Professor of Politics at Dublin City University and author of Unfinished Empire: Russian Imperialism in Ukraine and the Near Abroad, following his recent visit to Ukraine. Donnacha shares his observations of life in Ukraine and the mood among ordinary Ukrainians as the war continues. The discussion includes Ukraine’s increasingly important drone warfare, Russia’s ability to sustain its war effort, and the challenges facing Ukraine as the conflict enters another year. The conversation also turns to an issue much closer to home: Ireland’s Aughinish Alumina refinery and its links to Russia. How is the Aughinish controversy being perceived in Ukraine? What does it say about Ireland’s relationship with Russia and its commitment to supporting Ukraine? And what can Ireland and the European Union learn from how other countries have dealt with Russian demand for alumina? We also explore the significance of China’s support for Russia, the different elements of that support and much more. A wide-ranging conversation about Ukraine, Russia, Ireland, economic pressure, sanctions, drones and the geopolitics of the war — with a particular focus on the view from Ukraine itself. Listen to Perspectives with Neilo for conversations that go beyond the headlines to examine how foreign influence, economic pressure and political fear shape modern democracies. Dive Deeper: Additional sources and information relating to this episode are available at pwneilo.com

What happens when foreign investment becomes a matter of national security? An investigation by The Irish Times in March revealed how alumina produced at Aughinish Alumina in County Limerick has been exported to Russian smelters whose aluminium has entered supply chains serving Russia's defence industry. The story has reignited debate about Ireland's relationship with strategically important foreign-owned assets, EU sanctions, and the unintended consequences of global supply chains. In this episode of Perspectives with Neilo, Neil O'Sullivan is joined by Dr Eoin McNamara, Postdoctoral Fellow in the Global Security and Governance Programme at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs in Helsinki, to examine what the investigation revealed—and the much bigger questions it raises for Ireland and Europe. Together they discuss: • The significance of the Aughinish Alumina story and why it attracted attention across Europe. • Why alumina remains outside the current EU sanctions regime despite Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. • The difficult political, economic and moral choices facing the Irish Government. • How authoritarian states such as Russia and China use investment, trade and critical industries to create long-term strategic dependencies. • Why economic security has become one of the defining geopolitical challenges facing democratic countries. • What Ireland should learn about foreign direct investment, critical infrastructure and protecting national resilience in an increasingly uncertain world. This conversation goes beyond one refinery in County Limerick. It explores how economic relationships can become strategic leverage, why democracies often struggle to unwind these dependencies, and what policymakers must consider when balancing jobs, investment, national security and foreign policy. If you enjoy thoughtful conversations about geopolitics, economic security, foreign influence, European affairs and Ireland's place in a changing world, subscribe to Perspectives with Neilo and share this episode with others interested in the forces shaping our future. . / . Audio Credits Sound Soul (This Logo Reveal) by Diamond_Tunes via Pixabay Dreamy Downtempo Music by Tunetank via Pixabay

China insists it is a force for peace, stability and development—but do its actions match its rhetoric? In this episode of Perspectives with Neilo, we examine China's latest grey zone operations around Taiwan, where Chinese Coast Guard vessels began issuing commands to foreign commercial ships operating in waters east of the island. Security analysts warn these seemingly routine maritime patrols may represent something far more significant: a gradual attempt to reshape the status quo in the Taiwan Strait without firing a shot. We explore why recent maritime boundary negotiations between Japan and the Philippines triggered such a strong response from Beijing, what China's expanding claims over Taiwan's surrounding waters mean under international law and UNCLOS, and why experts believe these developments could have profound implications for regional security and freedom of navigation throughout the Indo-Pacific. The episode also examines China's rapidly expanding military capabilities, growing security cooperation between countries including Australia, Japan and the Philippines, and how organisations such as AUKUS and the Quad are responding to an increasingly assertive Beijing. Is China acting as a responsible global power seeking regional stability—or is it using incremental coercion to advance its strategic ambitions? We separate the headlines from the geopolitics to examine what these developments could mean for Taiwan, the wider Indo-Pacific and the future of international maritime law. In this episode: • China's latest Coast Guard operations around Taiwan • Grey zone warfare explained • The Taiwan Strait and international maritime law (UNCLOS) • Japan–Philippines maritime negotiations • China's military build-up and regional security • Freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific • AUKUS, the Quad and the changing balance of power If you enjoy independent analysis of geopolitics, international relations, foreign influence and global security, be sure to follow Perspectives with Neilo wherever you listen to podcasts and visit pwneilo.com for additional resources and further reading. . / . Audio Credits: Dark Suspense Thriller by Alex Morgan via Pixabay Sound Soul (This Logo Reveal) by Diamond_Tunes via Pixabay Excerpt from The Hon. Richard Marles MP, Deputy Prime Minister of Australia’s speech at the National Press Club of Australia on "Launch of the 2026 National Defence Strategy and Integrated Investment Program" via National Press Club of Australia You Tube Channel (see link in blog)

Taiwan opposition leader Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文) recently visited the United States following her high-profile meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing. During a public discussion at the Asia Society in New York, she faced tough questions about Taiwan's future, cross-strait relations, the 1992 Consensus, and whether engagement with Beijing can coexist with Taiwan's democracy and autonomy. In this episode of Perspectives with Neilo, we examine key moments from Cheng Li-wun's US visit, including her exchanges with Asia Society fellows Danny Russel and Orville Schell, her views on Taiwan-China relations, and the reaction from Washington policymakers. We also explore: • Cheng Li-wun's meeting with Xi Jinping • The future of the 1992 Consensus • Taiwan public opinion on cross-strait dialogue • US concerns about Taiwan's security and defence policy • The legacy of Hong Kong and "One Country, Two Systems" • Whether dialogue with Beijing reduces or increases risks for Taiwan ./ Copyright Disclaimer: This episode features short audio excerpts from Cheng Li-wun's June 8 discussion at the Asia Society in New York, originally published by the Asia Society. These clips are utilized under the doctrines of Fair Use (U.S. Copyright Act, Section 107) and Fair Dealing (applicable international copyright laws) for the purposes of criticism, comment, news reporting, and educational analysis. No copyright infringement is intended. All rights belong to their respective owners. Original source: https://youtu.be/FADLG_2Xb20?si=uklCFiMjH3-IlnNS ./ Music Chime: Sound Soul (This Logo Reveal) by Diamond_Tunes via Pixabay ./