Weekly Roundup 01/02/26 (2026 predictions, wealth taxes, secret insolvencies) (EP.694)

Matt and Nic are back for the first OTB show of 2026. In this episode: Matt's ice rink adventures The House issues a draft of the PARITY Act The trouble with wealth taxes DATs continue to bleed out We talk about Nic's fiction story Predictions for 2026 Is there a secret exchange insolvency? What constitutes insider trading for prediction markets?  Is the four year cycle finally over?  Is it time to try socialfi again?  Kickstarter snafus Content mentioned in this episode: Nic Carter, Trillion Dollar Salvage  

Matthew Le Merle and Mitch Mechigian of Blockchain Coinvestors join the show. In this episode we discuss: The top 5 themes of 2025 for the blockchain industry 2026 predictions and key themes to monitor To learn more about Blockchain Coinvestors visit fifthera.com/blockchain

Matt and Nic are back for more deals and news. In this episode:  Secret exchange insolvency rumors Caroline Ellison is free David Sacks says CLARITY is getting a markup The Fed rescinds their 2023 Novel Activities Supervision program Insolvent exchange prediction markets Visa's stablecoin advisory business JPM launches a tokenized Treasury fund MONY Quantum FUD Why Quantum might be a surprise Bitwise 2026 predictions The four year cycle is over Grabby aliens and the Dark Forest Content mentioned in this episode:  Talos and Factset, Year in Review

Henry sits down with Corn, head of business development at Yearn Finance, for a conversation about the evolution and current state of defi. In this episode:  The history of defi from 2020 to today, and how the TerraLuna crash impacted the market How incentive mechanisms in defi have changed in 2025 What caused the collapse of xUSD and Stream Finance? What is the role of risk curators in defi? The state of onchain cybersecurity and recent hacks What is the appetite for defi from non-crypto users and institutions, and will a declining fed funds rate help? How do defi protocols drive value to their native tokens? How "decentralized" is defi today?  

Matt and Nic are back with more news and deals. In this episode:  CIV grows the team Nic does not regret 8 years in crypto People are getting blackpilled about crypto Does speculation in crypto have positive externalities? Matt has never seen LOTR Will web3 ever come back? The OCC lets banks broker crypto trades The Bitwise 10 lists Rushi Manche returns with a fund Circle is launching a private stablecoin The DTC gets a no action letter from the SEC to settle tokenized securities We do a Terra/Luna restrospective Terra's fatal mistake Oracle mishaps on prediction markets Why did the nation's largest teachers union come out against the Market Structure bill Content mentioned in this episode: Nic Carter and Allen Farrington, All Falls Down  

Matt and Nic are back with another week of news and deals. In this episode:  Quantum risk again Are banks filled with spooks? The trouble with Taproot addresses Microstrategy's dollar reserve Kalshi is going on chain Prediction market predicaments Are insiders monetizing Google search information on Polymarket? Are prediction markets insider trading machines by definition? DAT activist fights Vanguard adds Bitcoin ETFs House Financial Services Committee releases their final report on OCP2.0 What's going on with leverage in crypto? Are AI agents going to start stealing crypto? Is Eliezer Yudkowski to be trusted? AI is going to usher in the golden age of fraud

Stepan, founder of Squads, sits down with Wyatt on today's episode. In this discussion: Squads' evolution from a DeFi-facing product to servicing a broader range of companies' asset treasury needs. What are the pain points of local small-medium businesses? What is driving the gradual global movement from local currencies into USD stablecoins? The appetite for safe yield across user types. Other traditional digital banking players and how they are evolving with technology. How the stablecoin trend impacts governments. What happens to local banks?

Matt and Nic record a special Thanksgiving episode of OTB. In this episode:  What's the deal with deep fried turkeys? Polymarket gets CTFC approval Klarna is launching a stablecoin on Tempo Upbit is hacked Berachain drama Tether gets a downgrade from S&P Robinhood is spinning up their own prediction market with Susquehanna Are Visa and Mastercard moving fast enough? Who are we thankful for?

Matt and Nic are back for another week of news and deals. In this episode:  Is Quantum FUD causing Bitcoin to sell off? Ray Dalio is worry about Quantum Scott Aaronson is worried about quantum computing Vitalik is worried about quantum Quantum upgrade scenarios Are we still suffering from the flash crash? The DATs are selling DAT spot arbitrage Will the US government end up with the Satoshi coins Should the government bail out AI? Will NFTs come back? IBIT is Harvard's largest 13F position David Frum on stablecoins Will stablecoins require a bailout?

Matt and Nic are back for another week of news and deals. In this episode:  The Senate Ag Cmte publishes a Market Structure draft Paul Atkins' token taxonomy speech Fed Governor Stephen Miran gives a major stablecoin speech Grayscale files their S-1 Coinbase announces a tokensale platform Coinbase is leaving Delaware The Coinbase BVNK deal falls through Visa Direct adds stablecoin support The Czech republic buys Bitcoin DATs are struggling CBDC holdouts Jack Dorsey bends the knee on stablecoins  Content mentioned: Stephen Miran, A Global Stablecoin Glut: Implications for Monetary Policy