Increasing Recession Risk, TikTok Deadline Extended, and a Stealth Tariff Winner? 4/4/25

JPMorgan’s Chief Economist tells us why he upped his U.S recession risk to 60%. President Trump posting he’ll extend the TikTok sale deadline by 75 days—we have instant reaction from the CEO of AppLovin, one of the companies bidding to buy the social media service. Plus, the software name that could be a stealth tariff winner. 

Stocks and yields both sinking after President Trump announced sweeping new tariffs. We dig into how we got here, what it means for Americans’ wallets, and the names best- and worst-positioned names.  

As Wall Street awaits Trump’s tariff announcement, Wolfe Research’s Tobin Marcus says investors are underestimating one of their key features. But it’s not just tariffs making news, the last-minute bids for TikTok coming in fast and furious ahead of Saturday’s deadline. We bring you all the headlines and the big names stepping up to buy it. 

With a little more than 24 hours until Trump’s big announcement, Raymond James’ Ed Mills says the tariff talk is just getting started. The sectors and countries he expects to be targeted first—and why we’ll still be talking about this in a year’s time. If you’re looking for names successfully navigating the uncertainty in the meantime, one portfolio manager has an under-the-radar software pick. Plus, Acy Cooper, fourth-generation Louisiana fisherman and captain of the Lacy Kay, tells us why the shrimping industry is rooting for more trade restrictions.    

Tech under pressure again today, but two Mag 7 names are starting to look attractive according to Extel’s 2024 top-ranked portfolio strategist. Economists see an increasing chance of stagflation, so what does that mean for the Fed? And Jefferies’ new cruise stock to buy as travelers begin to trade down. 

Stocks are selling off as growing uncertainty on U.S. trade policy and a more grim outlook on inflation weighs on investor sentiment. Plus, Coreweave makes its public debut, but immediately comes under pressure after pricing below its expected range. And China hawk Kyle Bass chimes in on the market sell-off, saying the economy actually needs a “slight recession”.

President Trump’s latest round of tariffs focused on autos and auto parts. We’ve got the details, the winners and losers, and the name one trader says will cut its dividend “immediately.” And while President Trump touts them as a win for America, will the government eventually have to step in to support the automakers like it did farmers following the 2016 tariffs? Plus, Sal Khan on how AI is reshaping the classroom for both teachers and students alike. 

Are the markets REALLY ready for tariffs? Just how inflationary could they be? And what does that mean for both business and consumer spending? We dive into all of that ahead of this afternoon’s auto tariff announcement. Plus, the latest on the Trump administration’s Signal group chat fallout. 

Consumer confidence is tumbling to a 12-year low, and one of our guests agrees that a recession is back in play. Plus, our trader covered his Tesla calls, comparing it to catching a falling knife. And we have an exclusive sit-down with the Gap CEO live at the ShopTalk conference in Las Vegas.

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