NATE SILVER VS. ALAN LICHTMAN -Predicting with History or Polls? Also: Reagan Campaigning for VP Bush in 1988 and Pennsylvania as a Swing State

In this episode, Bruce will make 5 points about the 2024 election. On Patreon, he will make 14 points so be sure to join there at www.myhistorycanbeatupyourpolitics.com. You can also join Airwave History to get the episode. Also on this episode, podcast recommendations. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In case it's interesting, here's some of what Bruce said back in 2016 when President Trump won his first full term. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The October Surprise scandal that could have been, but almost brought down LBJ. What it says about history and today.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It wasn't supposed to be close. Then new strategies, a speech and a surprising foreign policy event completely changed the election between Richard Nixon and Hubert Humphrey. Two vice presidents battled it out. One major poll said Nixon had a lead, the other said Humphrey. Both by only a couple of points. The candidates do their Telethons, and the nation votes. Who will win? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As we await tomorrow's episode on Nixon v. Humphrey, a note about what's on our Patreon right now: 5 things the media is not talking about (or not that much), so join up there for as little as 5 dollars a month if you want to hear that episode. From third parties to Cleveland Comparisons. On this episode we'll talk about the 5 things in general, and I'll give a sneak peek into one interesting thing about Grover Cleveland's election that makes him sound like a candidate of today. Patreon at - www.myhistorycanbeatupyourpolitics.com We are part of Airwave Media Network Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As we discuss with David Priess of Chatter Podcast (and the author of books on national security and presidential history) - it's tough to run for President when you are the sitting VP. It hasn't worked that often. Just twice since the 12th Amendment changed the election rules surrounding VPs, a vice president has won the big job. David goes into why this worked. And why on many other occasions, it did not work. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The "bone and sinew" in Pennsylvania, the voters there, would determine the election of Zachary Taylor or Cass. So said the candidate Zachary Taylor himself. In the final part of our two-party series on the 1848 Presidential Election, we look at stump speeches, the third party Free Soilers, Stephen Douglas speaking for Democratic candidate Lewis Cass and Abraham Lincoln touting Zachary Taylor. We hear stories from newspapers and a budding author starts to ply his trade with a diversion into political satire. We have a Patreon - www.myhistorycanbeatupyourpolitics.com We are part of Airwave Media Network Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In Part 1 of our two-parter on the 1848 election, American politics is experiencing its greatest tumult. To long-time politicos the world is upside down as Whigs are working with Democrats, Democrats with Whigs. Writers are declaring a new Young America and an out with the old. America's territory is about to expand greatly, and there's arguments about how. Into this mix, almost as a relief to Whigs, is a new national hero. But is he the right choice for the highest office? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

'The public and the public papers have been much occupied lately in placing us in a point of opposition to each other. ' So wrote Jefferson to Adams about the 1796 Presidential Election, America's first with two candidates with true campaigns. ... Before it was over there would feature negative ads, misconstructions of candidate statements, foreign interference and backlash to that interference, and election count disputes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bunch of topics. We note that at this point in 1988, President Reagan had made stump speeches for his Vice President Bush. We also get into Pennsylvania's East and West sides, and a nearly complete history of PA's Presidential vote. And we get into an argument between two election predictors. Want more - there's a 4-part series on the 1864 election on Patreon - check it out at www.myhistorycanbeatupyourpoltics.com We are part of Airwave Media Network Check out Triviality, Plodding Through the Presidents, American Revolutionary War cast, For the Love of History and others! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices