Johnson's Ceci: Hard landing potential rises until rates start falling

Mike Thompson, portfolio manager at Little Harbor Advisors, sees heightened volatility ahead for the market, but says that recent concerns on big-picture items have seemed to ebb, giving the stock market room to run here. In the Big Interview, Thompson explains his firm's "risk-responsive investing" approach and the tactics it is drawn to in current economic and market conditions. Aniket Ullal, head of ETF data and analytics at CFRA, brings his firm's forward-looking, short-term ratings system to the Market Call, and Chuck takes on the latest statements from best-selling author and perma-bear Robert Kiyosaki, who over the weekend was saying that the new crash has begun and gave suggestions -- that Chuck disagrees with -- on how to profit from the massive downturn he is expecting.

Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, says that she sees the stock market grinding higher through heightened volatility for the rest of the year as the Federal Reserve pushes rate cuts out to December or into 2025. Still, she expects "another shoe to fall" with the economy and the market, though that trouble likely is coming next year or beyond. By comparison, Adam Grimes, president of Talon Advisors, sees the market retesting record high levels in fairly short order, but he worries that the longer-term technical indicators suggest "a rocky two, three, four years" ahead, though he remains positive that equities will be up a decade from now, so that long-term investors should remain in the market through the trouble ahead. Plus, in the Market Call, Janet Brown of FundX Investment Group — publishers of the No-Load Fund*X — talks about riding the wave of what has been winning, and discusses how the winners and losers appear ready to hold their positions for a while longer before conditions change.

Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones, says we are seeing a tug of war between the forces lifting the economy -- powered by excitement over artificial intelligence -- facing the stubbornness of inflation and the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will postpone rate cuts as long as possible, weakening the market.  Kourkafas says he prefers the strong economy over rate cuts because it builds a strong foundation for corporate profits, which ultimately will drive markets higher, overcoming the short-term impact inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates are having on the market now. Veteran personal finance journalist John Waggoner -- long-time columnist at USA Today and most recently financial editor at AARP -- talks about his recent decision to retire, mostly, and what went into making it and what he learned from working with seniors facing the end of their working lives. Plus, David Trainer, president at New Constructs, revisits Express, which has gone from bad to worse since it was a Danger Zone pick a few years ago, having recently filed for bankruptcy protection. Trainer doesn't see the company being saved in the court, expecting it to complete the journey to zero.

Matt Kaufman, head of ETFs at Calamos Investments, discusses the firm's new "structured protection ETFs," in which a fund owner gets exposure to a market index but gives up some upside potential in exchange for protection against losses. The funds sound like a substitute for stocks but, akin to equity index products and other financial hybrids built to avoid losses, are a more suitable substitute for bank savings accounts and other cash investments. Kaufman says the products are a reflection of the times, where many investors are tired of the volatility and nervous for the future and want some assurance that they will not lose money in the market. Also on the show, Christian Munafo, chief investment officer at Liberty Street Advisors -- which runs the Private Shares Fund -- discusses how late-stage private venture companies are a real opportunity now, coming off of two years in which private shares have struggled and the market for taking those companies public has been sluggish. He also discusses Destiny Tech 100, an exchange-traded closed-end portfolio that has been trading like a meme stock, with massive gains -- but also nose-bleed falls -- since its debut in March. Plus, Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research at Morningstar, discusses ETFs in the Market Call.

Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at the Channel Capital Research Institute -- author of "Follow the Fed to Investment Success" -- says that Jerome Powell is currently trying to live "the financial version of the Hippocratic oath, which says 'First, do no harm.'" Roberts says that Powell is trying to adjust expectations gradually, which is why Wednesday's statement from the Fed boss was benign, trying to play both sides, setting expectations at one rate cut this year but with the potential to avoid that if the data doesn't demand it. In the ETF of the Week interview, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, takes a young, small fund that has struggled out of the gate -- X-trackers US Green infrastructure Select Equity -- and makes the case for making it a long-term holding and, in the Market Call, Stephen Dodson of The Bretton Fund talks about how his style of business value investing works in current market conditions.

John Blank, chief investment strategist and chief economist at Zacks Investment Research, says that there will not be a recession -- or anything resembling it -- this year, but he makes it clear the can't be said for 2025, once the election cycle and concerns about the impact of higher interest rates and inflation staying around longer play out. Blank says he does not expect the Federal Reserve to be pressured into making rate cuts, but notes that it could make a cut in the fall leading into the election if the data suggests one is appropriate, but he doesn't see the central bank moving off of its plan to get inflation back to the 2 percent level. When that plays out in that recession that's coming for next year, Blank says it could help to minimize the duration of the downturn. Also on the show, Adam Ruben, vice president of the Economic Security Project, discusses the group's survey of consumers using the IRS Direct File pilot program, noting  that the new filing methods drew a lot of consumer interest but also a lot of praise by the 140,000-plus taxpayers who used the system across 12 states. He expects the IRS to dramatically expand the program in the near future, given the strength of the results this year. Plus, in the Market Call, Noland Langford, chief executive officer at Left Brain Wealth Management talks growth stocks.  

Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, says that the years after peak inflation and peak tightening tend to be good for markets, and he expects that to continue with a market and economy that he thinks can avoid big downturns. Levitt says the economy never got the recession many people expected because the economy didn't have a lot of excesses to create bubbles or big issues, but also because trouble came in spots, rolling into one area without taking over the whole landscape. As a result, Levitt's major guideposts for recession haven't been flashing warning signs, though he acknowledges that the next six months will likely rise and fall almost entirely based on the actions of the Federal Reserve and how the market responds to them. Jeff Krumpelman, chief investment strategist at Mariner Wealth Advisors, says he expects the market to recapture the record highs it was at earlier this year, with a year-end target of 5400 for the Standard & Poor's 500. Plus Ken Laudan, portfolio manager, Buffalo Large Cap Growth Fund discusses innovative, high-quality, durable large-cap growth companies in the Market Call. 

Dominic Ceci, chief investment officer at Johnson Financial Group, says  that while a soft landing has been priced into the stock market, sticky inflation is what could make things take a turn for the worse, noting that the longer inflation hangs around, interest rates won't be cut and that will lead to a rougher downturn. Ceci says interest rates are a driving force for stock markets, with an inverse relation where rates staying high would be bad for equities, while rate cuts would be a big plus. Also on the show: Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Wholesale Beer Association, discusses  the Beer Purchasers' Index reaching its highest levels since 2021, portending a strong summer not only for beer drinkers but for the economy; David Trainer of New Constructs puts a Fidelity sector fund into the Danger Zone, and Mac Sykes, portfolio manager for Gabelli, talks financial stocks in the Market Call.

Jeremy Schwartz, global chief investment officer at WisdomTree, says that despite current headlines, the economy will have a higher real growth rate, with productivity improved by technological advances and continued full employment, which should help the economy avoid recession. He notes that inflation rates may not be quite as high as they seem, saying that inflation is below official government levels when looked at in more updated, modern ways to evaluate consumer prices, noting that shelter costs are dramatically overstated in traditional measures, skewing the numbers. All of this creates a positive long-term outlook, Schwartz said. Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, says the market's technical picture suggests a downturn in the offing, but likely nothing beyond a 5 percent decline before the market resumes pursuit of record highs. Jonathan Mondillo, head of North American fixed income for abrdn says that record discount levels for municipal bond closed-end funds, coupled with attractive yields on those funds, are creating real opportunities for income investors. In the Market Call, Adam Peck of Riverwater Partners talks about putting a social investment lens over a market view to select stocks.

Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio strategist for Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, says that inflation is moving in the right direction -- albeit more slowly -- and economic growth remains resilient, creating an environment where corporate earnings continue to grind higher. That has him locking into his plan and overweighting stocks. Janasiewicz says that so long as inflation doesn't reaccelerate and force the Federal Reserve to increase rates, conditions should remain benign and comfortable for investors. Also on the show, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes the Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) his pick for "ETF of the Week," and in the Market Call, David Kalis, portfolio manager at The Future Fund, talks about finding the right forward-looking opportunities in markets now.