John Hancock's Roland: 'Economic cycles don't die of old age, they're killed by the Fed'

Dan Sotiroff, associate director of passive strategies at Morningstar goes "Off The News" discussing the firm's just-released "State of US ETFs 2026" report, which found that heightened competition is increasingly pushing fund firms to open "complex, narrowly focused strategies that may resemble gambling more than long-term investing. He says that the issues are strange and getting weirder, citing examples of ETFs now tied to everything from election results to hockey scores, and while many of those new funds have not opened to investors yet, they are the logical extension of single-stock funds and other new issues that offer investors new ways to play the market. While Sotiroff notes that there have been sound improvements in a few of the newfangled funds, there are more potential gambles than real investing. Ian Cassel, founder of MicroCapClub, discusses his new book, "Stock Picker: How to Develop the Mindset, Temperament, and Strategy to Outperform Wall Street," and the importance of finding solid fundamentals and profits to select tiny stocks with the potential to beat the odds and grow into big profits and status as a large- or mega-cap company. And in "The NAVigator," Young Choi, portfolio manager for the XAI Floating Rate & Alternative Income Trust, says the explosion in specialty ETFs dedicated to investing in collateralized loan obligations has changed the CLO market, compressing spreads and changing some buying opportunities. In "The NAVigator," Choi also  discusses differences between the private credit and CLO markets, noting that any blow-up or problem in the private space could have spillover effects that create buying opportunities in CLOs.

Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments, says that investors have been making themselves miserable while living through "the greatest four-year bull market in S&P 500 history," which may make them too worried about interest rate hikes. She says the market and economy are strong enough to push through rate hikes, at least until the Federal Reserve moves them up at least three times, and the interest rate on the 10-year Treasury gets to about 5.5%, which she thinks could be "the line in the sand" where the market stops shrugging off the hikes. "Economic cycles don't die of old age," Roland says, "they're killed by the Fed." As a result, she is recommending investors lean into high-quality bonds in the middle of the yield curve, noting that "Every stock on the planet is loved and every bond on the planet is hated right now; I will tell you from experience that investors tend to hate bonds right before they love them again." In the Book Interview, Lindsay Crouse discusses "The Case for Quitting: The Surprising Benefits of Opting Out," which is as much about personal habits as it is jobs and work. Crouse says people learn about themselves just by considering breaking habits, giving up things that "they've always done" that no longer play the same role in their lives, and just by considering what would happen if they simply stopped doing certain things in their lives, noting that it can reaffirm their commitment or help them see the benefits of change. Chip Lupo discusses the latest retirement savings survey from WalletHub, which found that 7 in 10 people believe a pension is better than a 401(k). To that end, more than half of Americans say they would prefer to pay a 12.4% Social Security tax to get double the benefits rather than the 6.2% tax that delivers current benefits levels. Lacking the stable, consistent support of a pension and dealing with current Social Security benefits levels is why 43 percent of survey respondents believe it is not realistic for the average American to expect to retire comfortably. 

Jonathan Treussard, founder of Treussard Capital Management, says "the market is playing chicken with itself" by pushing interest rates on long Treasury bonds above 5 percent, but it's not quite ready to live with tighter economic conditions and he is not sure if the rate picture is the "something that breaks" to create a market meltdown. Treussard says that the market can continue powering forward, even as he lays out the case for real worries about how the current cycle will end. Still, he points out that it's not ending now, largely because of the high level of capital expenditures for artificial intelligence. As long as that eprsists, he says investors should "Read the news, but watch the earnings." Roy Schwartz, co-founder of Axios, discusses his new book out this week, "Simplify: Do 50 Percent More with 50 Percent Less, which is about simplifying decisions to get some of yoyur time back, because "if you can become more efficient, more successful, more productive if you can simplify other areas of your life, that for sure will help you compete against A.I. and stay on top of it." Schwartz, who wrote the book with Axios' other co-founders, discusses the "Confront. Delete. Amplify." strategy for improving your life. Stan Haithcock, better known as "Stan the Annuity Man," returns to the show to answer a question from a listener who recently got an early retirement offer from his employer, which has him trying to figure out if he should take a lump-sum payment or stick with his pension, and whether he would be better off leaving the pension in place or potentially buying an annuity to build his own pension to help him in retirement.

Ryan Redfern, chief investment officer at Shadowridge Asset Management, expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week, "but I don't think the market cares at the moment," so while there may be some short-term jitters over the move, it is more likely setting up a rally starting in November, carrying into the best eight months of the four-year presidential cycle, the period after mid-term elections running through June that has been positive for the market in every cycle dating back to the 1940s. Redfern says he does worry about the market turning, but that change is not showing up in the charts, and he plans to remain mostly invested until he sees a catalyst for a downturn. since he does not see a catalyst for downturn. Further, Redfern notes that he will stay invested in stocks because the bond market has started a 40-year cycle in which, long-term, bonds will be "garbage." Eric Zwick, co-author of "The Everywhere Millionaire: Who Is Really Rich in America and How They Got There," discusses his book's stories of people living the American Dream at a time when many people believe that ideal has become impossible to reach. Zwick notes that the American Dream "is more alive than you think,  but it's not necessarily where you're looking." He says it's a nationwide phenomenon — with the stories mixing intention, drive, desire and luck — but that the path to achieving the American Dream this way may be different now than it was in the past.  Steve Nicastro discusses research from Clever Real Estate which showed that just one-third of surveyed homeowners who had sold a home recently had asked their agent to lower commission costs, but that more than 90 percent of the sellers who asked for a discount got one. The savings for those who asked were real, with nearly all agents who agreed to lower commissions cutting at least 0.5% off their rate, and almost half agreeing to give a full percentage point discount.

Jeff Mortimer, chief investment officer at Elyxium Wealth, says he continues to lean into market weakness and is comfortable with heightened volatility, but he says the strong earnings that are under-pinning the market will keep most downturns looking like buying opportunities. "We remain in a mid-cycle bull market," Mortimer says, "which is important for listeners to understand in that it can change what you do with dips, and weakness that show up in any mid-cycle market phase." These conditions tend to breed a market that shrugs off bad news, jumps at positive feelings and that generally has the momentum to keep going higher.  Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, looks at the calls made last week by some A.I. power-brokers to slow the development of artificial intelligence technologies, and discusses whether those warnings will amount to much in a market where the players are all pushing for the next breakthrough. Marolia also looks at whether the latest inflation news released last week puts the Federal Reserve in position to hike interest rates this week, and whether an increase will derail the current market rally. Plus, he puts  puts Lululemon Athletica under his five-lens view to discuss whether the company — which has seen its shares lose more than half of their value in 2026 — is a falling knife or a well-timed buy. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs revisits Klarna stock in The Danger Zone. The buy-now, pay-later company was first in the Danger Zone before it went through its initial public offering in September 2025, but it's back in now because Trainer worries that a big recent drop in the stock could convince some investors to go bargain-hunting. With a negative economic book value on the stock, Trainer thinks Klarna investors will indeed pay for their purchase later if they buy the stock now.

Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that economic indicators continue to look fine, but that growth is now driven by artificial-intelligence capital spending and wealth-effect spending by consumers who have benefitted from the rising market, which means that the positive trends can continue ""provided you don't get something that knocks the market on its back." Clissold worries that Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh "may have backed himself to a corner here," putting him in position to hike rates soon, although he is clear that one or two hikes, historically, doesn't derail market trends. Likewise, higher Treasury yields shouldn't disturb economic growth until they get north of 5.25%. Clissold does expect headlines about oil prices, higher bond yields and election uncertainty to hit the market in September and October but — barring something unforeseen — expects that decline to presage a year-end rally.  John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors, returns to answer listener questions, delving into whether funds stuck with large discounts are actually a bargain if the discount is never narrowed and captured by shareholders. Scott, who also serves as chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, discusses how discounts change a fund's risk profile, providing benefits even if they remain mostly unchanged over time. He also answers questions on achieving balance in a portfolio of closed-end funds, the drawbacks and benefits of using funds that invest in closed-end funds and more. Plus, Chuck goes off the news with Louis Hoch, chief executive officer at Usio — a payment-solutions company — to discuss the upcoming deadline in a $38 billion antitrust settlement in which Visa and Mastercard were accused of charging too much to process payments on their credit cards. The settlement in the case — which dates back more than 20 years — could have hidden costs for consumers, as it frees up merchants to add additional surcharges and to reject entire classes of cards, such as rewards cards which traditionally carry higher costs for the retailer.

Jack Janasiewicz, lead portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers, says that the market's ability to keep running depends on the "up and to the right" trend continuing, and he expects that to continue even if the slope of the line gets flatter. There's a difference, Janasiewicz says, between a slowing economy and a slow one, noting that slowing conditions can still be a good backdrop for corporate earnings — "which is really all that matters here" — rather than a slow market, which opens the door to recession. For that, his outlook is for a slower economy without a recession, even if long-term Treasury yields creep higher, as he believes the economy can withstand higher rates and higher oil prices so long as those conditions don't become extreme. Nicholas Epley, author, "A Little More Social: How Small Choices Create Unexpected Happiness, Health, and Connection" — who says he studies "mind-reading ... how we make inferences about each other's thoughts, beliefs and attitudes and mostly how we screw that up and misunderstand each other in lots of ways" — discusses America's loneliness/isolation epidemic and how people should choose to engage more often because those interactions are good for physical and mental health. He talks about a recipe for making your world friendlier, especially in times when that feels so difficult. In the Market Call, Mike Dickson, head of research and quantitative strategies at Horizon Investments, discusses the mix of art and science he puts into evaluating stocks, using valuation metrics, earnings quality, profit margins, balance-sheet health and more for determining the best relative companies across each industry group.  He notes that the market's trends on beating earnings estimates remains a very strong broad-based trend, going beyond artificial-intelligence and tech companies to the smaller sectors.

Macro strategist Jim Welsh, publisher of the Macro Tides and Weekly Technical Review newsletter, says that the advance-decline line has been making new highs for months, which is a signal that "the odds of experiencing a significant decline is unlikely," so while he thinks there are storm clouds on the horizon that could cause a 7-10 percent market decline around mid-term elections, he thinks a secular bear market is still well off into the future. After the short-term correction, Welsh sees the market returning to higher highs, based on what he sees in the advance-decline line. Still, Welsh makes it clear that there is a long-term secular bear market ahead, but it won't arrive until investors "have a really good reason to sell;" that could still be a ways off, until something truly problematic shows up in the data.  In the Market Call, Jay Hatfield, chief executive officer at Infrastructure Capital Advisors, talks about the importance of getting the macro right before digging into the micro on stocks. In analyzing the macro, Hatfield says conditions should be supportive for continued growth, though he worries about a "totally irrational" rate hike from the Federal Reserve — but also is concerned about the impact that a rate cut could have — could make the market and economy struggle. Plus, after Tuesday's conversation about annuities with Stan Haithcock — better known as "Stan the Annuity Man" — Chuck answers a listener's question about whether he has an annuity for his own long-term finances

Stan Haithcock — better known as "Stan the Annuity Man" — says that while higher interest rates may make annuity products more attractive right now, the real bargain is that life-expectancy tables have not been adjusted for the advancements artificial intelligence is creating that will lengthen life expectancies. Payments in the future will be lower, Haithcock says, "but current life expectancy tables are a bargain ... and in about two or three years you will see that change." Haithcock — who has called himself "the walking middle finger of annuity truth" — notes that with 15,000 people turning 65 every day and just 9% of the population covered by pensions, "it's a demographic tidal wave of people looking for guarantees and looking to put in an income floor." He discusses the best ways to do that — buying an annuity "for what it will do, not what it might do" —  with various types of annuities, and which products and sales pitches to walk away from. The bond market sold off last week, pushing long-term bond yields to levels unseen since 2007, at the same time copper prices went through their 10th straight week of rising prices to get close enough to record levels that a new peak is expected this week. In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, says that the numbers are real but market concerns over them are temporary. He expects the market to shake it off, meaning there are buying opportunities hidden among the headlines. Marolia also discusses an analysis released last week by the Burning Glass Institute — a labor-market think tank — showing that unemployment among workers ages 22 to 34 without a college degree has dropped to levels it has barely touched in the last two decades, which he thinks speaks to bigger trend on the value of a college education. Plus, Cary Sinnett, director of personal financial planning for the American Institute of CPAs, discusses their recent survey showing that Americans don't just love their pets, they make personal financial decisions around them. More than 60% of American dog and cat owners have a budget for spending on their pet, but nearly 7 in 10 say that, if faced with having to cut household spending, they would be more likely to cheap out on themselves ratehr than their pets.

Veteran technical analyst Tim Knight, founder of SlopeofHope.com, says precious metals "are going to kick the socks off equities for a long while to come," noting that it might be less that they gain ground than that they hold their status while stocks go in the tank, but he says conditions are ripe for a market downturn, as early as the end of this year after midterm elections. Knight, who acknowledges that he is something of a perma-bear — says he expects the market to be "very, very supportive of all things A.I. until Anthropic is out {with its initial public offering]," at which point it will evaluate the future and whether the expected A.I. spending boom can continue. If there is a misstep at that point and the A.I. revolution slows "it would dwarf the housing crisis if, suddenly, the spigot turned off." John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors — the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — discusses how business-development companies are rebounding from rough times earlier this year when net asset values crumbled as the market worried about too much exposure to parts of the software industry that could be negatively impacted by continued development of artificial intelligence. Scott says that the A.I. risk for BDCs appears  overblown, since "We're still not seeing software blowing up BDCs," though he does think it may take another two quarters of data to confirm that trend. Scott also notes that BDCs have not seen "exacerbated losses," meaning the dire forecasts have yet to play out in portfolios. In the Market Call, Greg Halter, director of research at Carnegie Investment Counsel, talks about buying "Rip van Winkle stocks" and long-term compounders and how hard they are to find in a world dominated by artificial-intelligence hyper-growth stories that could turn out to be a flash in the pan.