Geopolitical Cycles and the Fragility of the Global Operating System

On this episode of Shifting Ground, Admiral James “Sandy” Winnefeld, Jr. (ret.) introduces his concept of the “global operating system” (GOS)—which includes the rules-based international order and the global economy—explaining that its foundation of international stability is at risk of catastrophic failure due to geopolitical cycles, political polarization, and the overextension of the prevailing power.Read Admiral Winnefeld’s essay ⁠The Principle Challenge: Arresting the Decline of the Global Operating System Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome back to the Ties That Bind, a project of the Foreign Policy Research Institute examining the past, present, and future of NATO and the transatlantic relationship.We often assume our safety is a “government problem,” but guests Admiral Rob Bauer, the former Chair of the NATO Military Committee, and Strategic Communications Advisor Eleonora Russell argue that this mindset is our greatest vulnerability. Drawing from their 2025 book, If You Want Peace, Prepare for War: A Blueprint for Deterrence, they challenge the idea that military strength alone is enough to protect our future.In this special episode of the Ties That Bind we discuss the core lessons from the book, what a “whole of society” approach really entails, how to effectively rebuild trust and engage citizens and industry, and what the future of the alliance may look like if we start fighting for the “we” in a world of “me.” Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

In the inaugural episode of Shifting Ground, the Hon. Stacey Dixon joins Nick Gvosdev and Larry Rubin to discuss the US government’s challenge of balancing national security interests by restricting sensitive technology exports with the need for American companies to compete globally and influence international technology standards. The conversation highlighted “accelerants” like the democratization of conflict technology and the erosion of public trust due to misinformation, recommending that the government secure critical infrastructure, improve cyber hygiene, and cultivate citizens’ digital literacy to counter the negative, unintended uses of emerging technologies.Read Stacey’s piece ⁠The World’s Hidden Accelerants: Technology, Trust, and System Fragility Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome back to the Ties That Bind, a project of the Foreign Policy Research Institute examining the past, present, and future of NATO and the transatlantic relationship.This season, we examine how Western European NATO members like Germany are shifting their defense policies, pursuing rearmament, and what lies ahead for European security.This week, we are pleased to feature a conversation with FPRI President Aaron Stein and Roland Theis, a Member of the German Bundestag (CDU/CSU) who sits on the Defense and European Affairs Committees. The two discuss shifts in German defense policy, the erosion of transatlantic trust, and a way forward on rebuilding strong US-European ties. You can read a transcript of their conversation here.The third season of the Ties That Bind is generously supported by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Iran is facing massive protests and the regime is facing a significant challenge to its grip on power. The regime has unleashed the military, killing hundreds on the country’s streets. President Trump had threatened air strikes, raising questions about the future of the regime. What is the future of Iran?Aaron sat down with Saeid Golkar, an Iranian-American political scientist, and UC Foundation associate Professor at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, and Hamed Behravan, Vice President at DT Institute and Director of the Iran program.This episode is part of a collaboration between the Foreign Policy Research Institute and DT Institute about the future of governance in the Middle East. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome back to the Ties That Bind.This week, we go even further north, to Finland, one of the alliance’s newest members. Like the other frontline states we’ve visited this season, Finland shares a turbulent and complicated history with Russia that has long molded its security and foreign policy. But unlike the other frontline states, it was not a member of NATO at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. February 24, 2022, proved to be a lynchpin moment for how Finnish society viewed its security and its future.In this episode, we’ll hear from two Finnish experts about that moment in time, both culturally and politically, about the process and challenges of Finland’s NATO accession, the country’s strategic role in the Arctic, and what it means for the alliance. We’ll also hear about Finland’s whole-of-society defense model, how the country’s culture has informed its security calculus, and what other allies can learn from the Finnish experience. And we’ll also discuss lessons for Finland’s history for Ukraine.Featured Guests:* Minna Ålander is an Associate Fellow at Chatham House and a Non-Resident Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis.* Joel Linnainmäki is a Research Fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs and a former special advisor to the former Foreign Minister, Pekka Haavisto.Listen the previous episode on Latvia here. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

We have spent a lot of time talking about Combat Collaborative Aircraft, or CCA. On this episode, Aaron sat down with Billy Byrne, the Director of Strategy for Defense at Saildrone. The two talked about the future of unmanned naval systems, the lessons learned from Ukraine’s operations in the Black Sea, the challenges of operating in the Indo-Pacific, and the need to have both endurance and to “pack a punch” in naval combat.Explore more from Behind the Front here. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome back to the Ties That Bind.This week, we go back North to the shores of the Baltic Sea for the perspective from Latvia.In this episode, we’ll hear from three Latvian experts on the evolution of the country’s defense posture, NATO cooperation, and its response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. We’ll also hear about what’s happening on the domestic front, with the evolution of national and municipal civilian defense programs, Latvia’s infrastructure investments, and how the country’s public sector is thinking about resilience and building trust in a whole-of-society defense approach.Featured Guests: * Māris Andžāns is the Director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies Riga and an associate professor at Rīga Stradiņš University.* Ieva Berzina is a Senior Researcher at the Center for Security and Strategic Studies, National Academy of Defense of the Republic of Latvia, and an associate professor at Vidzeme University of Applied Sciences.* Linda Ozola is a Councilor of the Riga City Council, and former Deputy Mayor of Riga (2020-2025).Listen to the previous episode Lessons in History and Communications from NATO’s Principal Spokesperson here. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome back to the Ties That Bind. This week, we are looking further south along NATO’s eastern flank at Romania.Romania has long advocated for increased NATO and US presence in the Black Sea. Since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the importance of the Black Sea and Romania’s role have been reflected in an increased NATO presence and multiple defense and infrastructure investments. The country has been a critical actor in helping the Ukrainian war effort, serving as a logistics and military training hub, and securing Ukrainian grain exports in the first years of the war.In this episode, we’ll hear from three Romanian experts about the country’s role in NATO and Black Sea security, its defense investments, and plans to address strategic infrastructure challenges that have far-reaching significance for the alliance. We’ll also hear about what’s happening on the domestic front, notably the long-term repercussions of the annulled 2024 presidential election. While public opinion shows high support for NATO, Romania and its neighbors continue to be targeted by long-term Russian influence campaigns, and we’ll hear how these are affecting social attitudes towards NATO and Western institutions.Featured guests: * Antonia Colibasanu, Senior Analyst, Geopolitical Futures, FPRI Senior Fellow* Eusebiu Slavitescu, European defense analyst, former Romanian MFA* Alina Bargaoanu, Communications expert, University of Political Studies and Public Administration, BucharestListen to the previous episode on Poland in NATO here. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

In a rapidly evolving world where Washington might not have the same sway it used to, how should the US best position itself? Who are the “schools” or “camps” contesting the direction of foreign policy. In this episode of The Continent, Emma Ashford joins Aaron Schwartzbaum to talk about American grand strategy and her recent book First Among Equals: US Foreign Policy in a Multipolar World. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe