Shifting sands: The geoeconomic triumphs of the Gulf

Taiwan has come to represent a strategic flashpoint in US-China relations. As Beijing ramps up its political and military pressure on Taipei, any escalation could trigger a major conflict between the two powers. Unlike Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China may have to reckon with direct US intervention if it chose to invade Taiwan. Alongside this, the US-China strategic competition is rising, with the United States’ strategic approach involving aggressive export controls, maintaining tariffs, and creation of alliances in the Indo-Pacific.In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Dmitri Alperovitch, co-founder and chairman of national security think-tank Silverado Policy Accelerator, to discuss US-China competition and the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. What would the consequences of an invasion be? What can the US do about it? And what role should Europeans play in all of this?This episode was recorded on 25 April 2024Bookshelf:To Run the World: The Kremlin's Cold War Bid for Global Power by Sergey Radchenko Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As the world awaits Israel’s response to Iran’s Saturday attack, the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza persists and the territory remains on the brink of famine. While Israel’s attention is momentarily diverted towards Iran and its proxies, prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu insists he is still planning an offensive on Rafah, discussions around a ceasefire and hostage exchange remain in deadlock, and a possible two state-solution recedes further into the distance.  In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes senior policy fellow Hugh Lovatt and chief of programmes and communications at the Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor, Muhammad Shehada from Gaza, to discuss the war in Gaza and the prospects for Palestinian statehood. What pathways for a solution to the conflict remain? Should the emphasis continue to be on Palestinian statehood, or on self-determination in a broader sense? Can Europeans play a constructive role in finding a peaceful solution? This episode was recorded on 17 April 2024  Bookshelf: Crossing the Divide: Intergroup Leadership in a World of Difference by Todd Pittinsky The Bank Manager and the Holy Grail: Travels to the Weirder Reaches of Wales by Byron Rogers   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On Saturday evening, Iran launched a major attack on Israeli territory, with a combination of 300 drones and missiles. Israel’s air defense seems to have intercepted most of these and the airspace over Israel and Jordan has since been reopened. In this special episode, Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, and Hamidreza Azizi, visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin, where he focuses on Iranian foreign policy and regional issues. But the attack remains historically unprecedented and leaves the Middle East sliding to the edge of a regional war. What motivated Iran to attack? How will Israel respond? And what role is the us playing? The podcast was recorded on 14 April 2024 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Amid growing geopolitical fragmentation and the rise of middle powers, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia stand out for their successful attempts to reinvent themselves as regional linchpins. Despite having to operate within an increasingly difficult economic environment, the Gulf states have simultaneously expanded their ties with China, Europa, Russia, and the United States and reaped remarkable economic rewards in the process. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes senior policy fellow Agathe Demarais, visiting fellow Cinzia Bianco, and policy fellow and Deputy Head of ECFR’s Paris office, Camille Lons, to discuss the geoeconomics of the Gulf. How have the UAE and Saudi Arabia managed to juggle different competing powers? What lessons do their strategies hold for other middle powers? And what should the European Union be doing to pursue its own interests in the region? This episode was recorded on 11 April 2024 Bookshelf: 3 Body Problem – a Netflix TV Series by David Benioff, Daniel Weiss, and Alexander Woo Blind Man’s Bluff: The Untold Story of American Submarine Espionage by Sherry Sontag and Christopher Drew, with Annette Lawrence Drew The Power of Currencies and Currencies of Power by Alan Wheatley There’s Still Tomorrow – a film by Paolo Cortellesi  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the war in Gaza, US president Joe Biden has been forced to deal  with some major foreign policy crises. Guiding him through these, a team of seasoned foreign policy professionals, among which Antony Blinken, Bill Burns, Avril Haines, and Jake Sullivan, were brought on to “restore” America’s foreign policy after four years of Donald Trump’s presidency. In this week’s episode, following the launch of ECFR’s Washington office, Mark Leonard welcomes national security reporter at Politico, Alexander Ward, and research director and director of ECFR’s new US programme, Jeremy Shapiro, to discuss Biden’s foreign policy performance. Has it been a success? Where has it fallen short of the goals Biden set? And has his team of foreign policy experts lived up to the promise of restoring America’s foreign policy? This episode was recorded on 27 March 2024 Bookshelf:  The Internationalists: The Fight to Restore American Foreign Policy after Trump by Alexander Ward 20 Days in Mariupol - an AP News and Frontline documentary film by Mstyslav Chernov  Collisions: The Origins of the War in Ukraine and the New Global Instability by Michael Kimmage  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza have led questions of international law and justice to filter into everyday discourse. Both conflicts are deeply rooted in complicated and at times controversial discussions concerning the validity of territorial claims, the permissibility of use of force, the role of the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice in prosecuting wrongdoers, and the complexities of international humanitarian law.  In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes ECFR senior policy fellow Anthony Dworkin to discuss the role of international law and justice in an increasingly fragmented world. What are the limits of international law? Is there any merit in accusations of Western double standards? And what role can international law play when it comes to justice in Ukraine, Gaza, and other places around the world?This episode was recorded on 13 March 2024 BookshelfEquality: The History of an Elusive Idea by Darrin M. McMahon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It has been a rocky month for German defence policy. With a naval frigate almost shooting down a US drone in the Red Sea by mistake, discussions of military officers on the deployment of Taurus missiles leaking, and Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron openly arguing about military aid to Ukraine, Germany’s policy on European defence is embroiled in internal and external intrigue. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes senior policy fellow Ulrike Franke and senior policy fellow and head of ECFR’s Berlin Office, Jana Puglierin, to discuss the current state of Germany’s policy on the war in Ukraine and European defence. What does the recent turmoil say about Germany’s strategic culture and its so-called Zeitenwende? What are the sources of tension for Franco-German defence relations? And how much potential does the attempted revival of the Weimar triangle between Berlin, Paris, and Warsaw have for agreeing on a common path forward? This episode was recorded on 18 March 2024 Bookshelf: Zeitenwende: The Bundeswehr’s Paradigm Shift by Léo Péria-Peigné and Elie Tenenbaum Breaking Bad – an AMC television series   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A few years ago decoupling was all the rage, but Western economies are now moving towards de-risking as they strive to reduce their economic reliance on China. A United States keen to preserve its technological superiority leads the way – and aims to bring its allies along for the ride. In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes ECFR senior policy fellow, Agathe Demarais, and senior director at risk advisory firm Global Counsel, Stephen Adams, to discuss de-risking and its impact on European countries and the global economy. Where did the phrase originate? What does de-risking mean in practice? And what does an economic landscape conditioned by de-risking look like? Bookshelf:Underground Empire, by Henry Farrell and Abraham NewmanState of Emergency: Britain, 1970-1974, by Dominic Sandbrook Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The death toll in Gaza now exceeds 30,000. Five months into the war, much of the sympathy the international community had for Israel following the 7 October attacks has evaporated amid such violence and destruction.In this week’s episode, Mark Leonard welcomes senior policy fellow Hugh Lovatt, director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme Julien Barnes-Dacey, and research director and director of ECFR’s new US programme Jeremy Shapiro. Together, they discuss the current situation in Gaza and how the war could create the opportunity for a “grand bargain” which could unblock the previously stuck status quo and solve the decades-long Arab-Israeli conflict. How likely is it that there will be a ceasefire in time for Ramadan? How are US and European governments responding to the war? And what are the odds that we could end up with a grand bargain that results in a two-state solution?This episode was recorded on 7 March 2024.Bookshelf: The Gaza Crisis: Mapping the Middle East's Shifting Battle Lines by Hugh Lovatt, Julien Barnes-Dacey and Cinzia Bianco The Secret World: A History of Intelligence by Christopher AndrewCrash Landing on You – a tvN television seriesThe Imperfectionists by Tom RachmanGaza: A History by Jean-Pierre Filiu Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The conflict in Ukraine has crystallised into a war of attrition. As military losses pile up on both sides, Russia could take advantage of this year’s electoral uncertainty in the West to strike a settlement deal on its terms. To ensure a durable peace, Europeans must make clear what red lines Moscow is not allowed to cross. And the history of the cold war may provide Europeans with some valuable lessons on how to do that.In this episode, Mark Leonard welcomes ECFR’s board member Ivan Krastev, who is the chairman of the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia and a permanent fellow at Vienna’s Institute for Human Sciences. Together they discuss how NATO accession could strengthen Kyiv’s negotiating position vis-à-vis Russia and if it could enforce the West’s red lines in Ukraine in the same way as it did in West Germany almost 70 years ago. How should the West approach negotiations with Moscow? What is the de-escalation potential of Ukraine’s NATO membership? How can Europeans ensure a durable peace on the continent?This podcast was recorded on 23 February 2024.Bookshelf:How Civil Wars Start by Barbara F. Walter Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.