How Should We Prepare for the Unknown? With Statistician David Spiegelhalter

In a world of economic shocks, geopolitical crises and constant predictions about the future, how should we make decisions when certainty is impossible? And what can statistics teach us about living with risk, chance and the unknown?  In this episode, physicist and science broadcaster Helen Czerski speaks with statistician David Spiegelhalter about his book The Art of Uncertainty. Drawing on probability, data and real-world examples, Spiegelhalter explores how we assess risk, and sheds light on what roles chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives. David Spiegelhalter is a statistician and author. He is Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge and author of The Art of Uncertainty. Helen Czerski is a physicist, writer and broadcaster. If you'd like to become a Member and get access to all our full conversations, plus all of our Members-only content, just visit intelligencesquared.com/membership to find out more. For £4.99 per month you'll also receive: - Full-length and ad-free Intelligence Squared episodes, wherever you get your podcasts - Bonus Intelligence Squared podcasts, curated feeds and members exclusive series - 15% discount on livestreams and in-person tickets for all Intelligence Squared events  ...  Or Subscribe on Apple for £4.99: - Full-length and ad-free Intelligence Squared podcasts - Bonus Intelligence Squared podcasts, curated feeds and members exclusive series … Already a subscriber? Thank you for supporting our mission to foster honest debate and compelling conversations! Visit intelligencesquared.com to explore all your benefits including ad-free podcasts, exclusive bonus content and early access. … Subscribe to our newsletter here to hear about our latest events, discounts and much more. https://www.intelligencesquared.com/newsletter-signup/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this episode, historian and philosopher Sophie Scott Brown speaks with writer Andrea Wulf about her new book The Traveller: The Revolutionary Life of George Forster and his Search for Humanity. A naturalist, explorer and political radical, Forster travelled around the world with Captain Cook as a teenager before becoming one of the most original and progressive thinkers of his age. Drawing on unpublished correspondence and Forster’s journeys across Europe and the Pacific, Wulf traces how his encounters with different cultures challenged the assumptions of eighteenth-century Europe. The conversation explores his opposition to slavery, racism and empire, his belief in universal human rights, and the influence of the French Revolution on his political thought. Andrea Wulf is a historian and biographer. She is the bestselling author of The Invention of Nature and Magnificent Rebels. Her latest book is The Traveller: The Revolutionary Life of George Forster and his Search for Humanity. Sophie Scott Brown is a historian and philosopher specialising in modern intellectual history and political thought. If you'd like to become a Member and get access to all our full conversations, plus all of our Members-only content, just visit intelligencesquared.com/membership to find out more. For £4.99 per month you'll also receive: - Full-length and ad-free Intelligence Squared episodes, wherever you get your podcasts - Bonus Intelligence Squared podcasts, curated feeds and members exclusive series - 15% discount on livestreams and in-person tickets for all Intelligence Squared events  ...  Or Subscribe on Apple for £4.99: - Full-length and ad-free Intelligence Squared podcasts - Bonus Intelligence Squared podcasts, curated feeds and members exclusive series … Already a subscriber? Thank you for supporting our mission to foster honest debate and compelling conversations! Visit intelligencesquared.com to explore all your benefits including ad-free podcasts, exclusive bonus content and early access. … Subscribe to our newsletter here to hear about our latest events, discounts and much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Rebecca Solnit is an award-winning American writer and activist whose incisive work explores feminism, democracy, climate change and social justice. In this episode, she joins Mythili Rao to argue that, despite today's anxieties about democratic backsliding, technological disruption and environmental crisis, the past four decades have seen extraordinary social progress. From civil rights and environmental protection to LGBTQI+ equality and women's rights, many of the freedoms and values we now take for granted were won through collective action and sustained activism. Solnit reflects on how hard-fought gains can feel fragile when they come under attack, but reminds us that those attacks are often driven by a minority in power rather than a shift in public values. Drawing on history, she explores why progress is often slow, uneven and contested—and why participating in movements for change remains both meaningful and necessary. Rebecca Solnit is the author of more than 25 books, including Orwell’s Roses, Hope in the Dark and Men Explain Things to Me, Her latest book, The Beginning Comes After the End, is available in bookstores and online now. Mythili Rao is a journalist, book critic and podcaster. If you'd like to become a Member and get access to all our full conversations, plus all of our Members-only content, just visit intelligencesquared.com/membership to find out more. For £4.99 per month you'll also receive: - Full-length and ad-free Intelligence Squared episodes, wherever you get your podcasts - Bonus Intelligence Squared podcasts, curated feeds and members exclusive series - 15% discount on livestreams and in-person tickets for all Intelligence Squared events  ...  Or Subscribe on Apple for £4.99: - Full-length and ad-free Intelligence Squared podcasts - Bonus Intelligence Squared podcasts, curated feeds and members exclusive series … Already a subscriber? Thank you for supporting our mission to foster honest debate and compelling conversations! Visit intelligencesquared.com to explore all your benefits including ad-free podcasts, exclusive bonus content and early access. … Subscribe to our newsletter here to hear about our latest events, discounts and much more. https://www.intelligencesquared.com/newsletter-signup/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Emmanuel Macron. Demis Hassabis. Volodymyr Zelenskiy. George Soros. Mark Carney. Christine Lagarde. Ray Dalio. Leena Nair.  Few journalists have spent more time questioning the people who shape the global economy than Francine Lacqua. As Editor-at-large at Bloomberg and host of Leaders with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg TV, Lacqua has interviewed many of the most influential political and business leaders of our time. Across hundreds of conversations with presidents, CEOs, central bankers and founders she has built a rare understanding of how leadership operates at the highest levels of power.  In June 2026, Lacqua joined us live on stage for a special instalment of The Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook, our flagship series examining the forces shaping global markets, politics and business. In conversation with BBC broadcaster Jonny Dymond, she reflected on the leaders she has encountered throughout her career – and the defining decisions they faced during moments of economic uncertainty, geopolitical tension and technological change. What distinguishes leaders who succeed in turbulent times? How do the best decision-makers balance political pressure, economic risk and long-term strategy? And what kinds of leaders does today’s increasingly volatile world demand? This recording is part of The Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook series of events made in partnership with Guinness Global Investors, an independent British fund manager that helps both individuals and institutions harness the future drivers of growth to achieve their investment goals. To find out more visit: https://www.guinnessgi.com/ --------- This is the first instalment of a two-part episode. If you'd like to become a Member and get access to all our full ad free conversations, plus all of our Members-only content, just visit intelligencesquared.com/membership to find out more. For £4.99 per month you'll also receive: - Full-length and ad-free Intelligence Squared episodes, wherever you get your podcasts - Bonus Intelligence Squared podcasts, curated feeds and members exclusive series - 15% discount on livestreams and in-person tickets for all Intelligence Squared events  ...  Or Subscribe on Apple for £4.99: - Full-length and ad-free Intelligence Squared podcasts - Bonus Intelligence Squared podcasts, curated feeds and members exclusive series … Already a subscriber? Thank you for supporting our mission to foster honest debate and compelling conversations! Visit intelligencesquared.com to explore all your benefits including ad-free podcasts, exclusive bonus content and early access. … Subscribe to our newsletter here to hear about our latest events, discounts and much more. https://www.intelligencesquared.com/newsletter-signup/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Emmanuel Macron. Demis Hassabis. Volodymyr Zelenskiy. George Soros. Mark Carney. Christine Lagarde. Ray Dalio. Leena Nair.  Few journalists have spent more time questioning the people who shape the global economy than Francine Lacqua. As Editor-at-large at Bloomberg and host of Leaders with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg TV, Lacqua has interviewed many of the most influential political and business leaders of our time. Across hundreds of conversations with presidents, CEOs, central bankers and founders she has built a rare understanding of how leadership operates at the highest levels of power.  In June 2026, Lacqua joined us live on stage for a special instalment of The Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook, our flagship series examining the forces shaping global markets, politics and business. In conversation with BBC broadcaster Jonny Dymond, she reflected on the leaders she has encountered throughout her career – and the defining decisions they faced during moments of economic uncertainty, geopolitical tension and technological change. What distinguishes leaders who succeed in turbulent times? How do the best decision-makers balance political pressure, economic risk and long-term strategy? And what kinds of leaders does today’s increasingly volatile world demand? This recording is part of The Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook series of events made in partnership with Guinness Global Investors, an independent British fund manager that helps both individuals and institutions harness the future drivers of growth to achieve their investment goals. To find out more visit: https://www.guinnessgi.com/ --------- This is the first instalment of a two-part episode. If you'd like to become a Member and get access to all our full ad free conversations, plus all of our Members-only content, just visit intelligencesquared.com/membership to find out more. For £4.99 per month you'll also receive: - Full-length and ad-free Intelligence Squared episodes, wherever you get your podcasts - Bonus Intelligence Squared podcasts, curated feeds and members exclusive series - 15% discount on livestreams and in-person tickets for all Intelligence Squared events  ...  Or Subscribe on Apple for £4.99: - Full-length and ad-free Intelligence Squared podcasts - Bonus Intelligence Squared podcasts, curated feeds and members exclusive series … Already a subscriber? Thank you for supporting our mission to foster honest debate and compelling conversations! Visit intelligencesquared.com to explore all your benefits including ad-free podcasts, exclusive bonus content and early access. … Subscribe to our newsletter here to hear about our latest events, discounts and much more. https://www.intelligencesquared.com/newsletter-signup/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The English Renaissance is often remembered as an age of Shakespeare, exploration and cultural flourishing. But it was also shaped by encounters with the Americas. From tobacco in London playhouses to silver from South America and stories of lost cities of gold, the New World became an increasingly powerful presence in English life and imagination. In this episode, historian Caroline Dodds Pennock speaks with historian Lauren Working about her new book How the Americas Transformed Renaissance England. What did Elizabethans actually know about Mexico, the Amazon rainforest, or the Chesapeake? How did Indigenous people and knowledge enter the art, fashion, and literature of Shakespeare’s time – and at what cost? Drawing on a wealth of overlooked sources, Working explores how the Americas became woven into the fabric of Tudor and Stuart society. In doing so, she offers a fresh perspective on England's so-called golden age, revealing the global exchanges, ambitions and inequalities that helped shape the English Renaissance. Lauren Working is a historian specialising in the cultural and intellectual history of the early modern Atlantic world. She is a lecturer in Early modern literature at the University of York. Her new book is A Golden World: How the Americas Transformed Renaissance England. Caroline Dodds Pennock is a historian and author whose work focuses on Indigenous American history and the histories of encounter between Europe and the Americas. She is a Professor in International History at the University of Sheffield. Her books include On Savage Shores: How Indigenous Americans Discovered Europe. --- If you'd like to become a Member and get access to all our full conversations, plus all of our Members-only content, just visit intelligencesquared.com/membership to find out more. For £4.99 per month you'll also receive: - Full-length and ad-free Intelligence Squared episodes, wherever you get your podcasts - Bonus Intelligence Squared podcasts, curated feeds and members exclusive series - 15% discount on livestreams and in-person tickets for all Intelligence Squared events  ...  Or Subscribe on Apple for £4.99: - Full-length and ad-free Intelligence Squared podcasts - Bonus Intelligence Squared podcasts, curated feeds and members exclusive series … Already a subscriber? Thank you for supporting our mission to foster honest debate and compelling conversations! Visit intelligencesquared.com to explore all your benefits including ad-free podcasts, exclusive bonus content and early access. … Subscribe to our newsletter here to hear about our latest events, discounts and much more. https://www.intelligencesquared.com/newsletter-signup/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In September 2022, a series of underwater explosions tore through the Nord Stream pipelines beneath the Baltic Sea. The destruction of this $20 billion pipeline severed a major artery of Russian gas supplies to Europe, disrupted economies and triggered a manhunt that strained relations within the NATO alliance. In this episode, journalist Hannah Lucinda Smith speaks with Wall Street Journal Chief European Political Correspondent Bojan Pancevski about his investigation into this seismic act of sabotage.  Despite capturing the imagination of millions, the mystery of who blew up the pipeline has so far gone unsolved – was it the CIA? Was it part of the shadow war between Russia and the West? Could Putin himself have been behind it? Drawing on years of reporting and access to intelligence officials, investigators and key players, Pancevski reconstructs the events behind one of the most consequential acts of sabotage in modern history.  Bojan Pancevski is Chief European Political Correspondent at The Wall Street Journal. He is the author of The Nord Stream Conspiracy: The Inside Story of the Explosions That Shook the World. Hannah Lucinda Smith is a journalist and foreign correspondent reporting on global politics, conflict and international affairs. If you'd like to become a Member and get access to all our full conversations, plus all of our Members-only content, just visit intelligencesquared.com/membership to find out more. For £4.99 per month you'll also receive: - Full-length and ad-free Intelligence Squared episodes, wherever you get your podcasts - Bonus Intelligence Squared podcasts, curated feeds and members exclusive series - 15% discount on livestreams and in-person tickets for all Intelligence Squared events  ...  Or Subscribe on Apple for £4.99: - Full-length and ad-free Intelligence Squared podcasts - Bonus Intelligence Squared podcasts, curated feeds and members exclusive series … Already a subscriber? Thank you for supporting our mission to foster honest debate and compelling conversations! Visit intelligencesquared.com to explore all your benefits including ad-free podcasts, exclusive bonus content and early access. … Subscribe to our newsletter here to hear about our latest events, discounts and much more. https://www.intelligencesquared.com/newsletter-signup/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Long before Putin's invasion of Ukraine, conflict was simmering on Europe's borders. In overlooked territories in eastern Europe, the eastern Mediterranean and the Caucasus –from the Balkans and Cyprus to Abkhazia on the fringes of Georgia – local disputes spiral into regional crises, global alliances are forged and broken, and power is brokered while the West looks elsewhere. In this episode, acclaimed correspondent Hannah Lucinda Smith joins Adam McCauley to discuss her new book Hinterlands: Journeys through Europe’s Unfinished Frontiers. She draws on vivid first-hand experience to paint a gripping portrait of Europe at its edges - and the struggles that will define its future. Hannah Lucinda Smith is a journalist known for reporting across the Middle East and Europe for The Times of London, The Atlantic, WIRED, and others. She is the author of Erdogan Rising, an account of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's rise to power, and Zarifa, the memoir of Afghan human rights activist Zarifa Ghafari. Adam McCauley is a journalist, academic, and policy analyst currently based in Ottawa, Canada. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is an episode of Hotels with History, produced by Intelligence Squared on behalf of Perowne International⁠. We’re in midtown Manhattan to kick off Series 2, at the very heart of New York society: the Waldorf Astoria. An icon born from family rivalry which evolved into the unofficial palace of the city; from Gilded Age ambition and Art Deco grandeur to revolutionary ideas about service, the Waldorf doesn’t just reflect New York’s history... it helped define it. Check into The Waldorf Astoria here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As the main intelligence and security agency of the Soviet Union from 1954 to 1991, the KGB instilled fear across Russia and sought to sow discord abroad. This network of government spies was notorious for the often brutal methods it used to keep enemies, loyalists and common people under the thumb of the state. And far from fading as the USSR old guard fell from power, the operatives, methods and networks of the KGB remain at the heart of the Russian state today. Putin himself was a KGB officer for 16 years, including six years as a foreign intelligence officer stationed in Dresden, East Germany. In May 2026, veteran security correspondent and Rest is Classified co-host Gordon Corera joined us to unveil the inner workings of the KGB and the hidden power struggles that shaped modern Russia. Corera explored the real-life stories of those on the inside; from the spies who lived and died enforcing its rule, to those who were brave enough to resist it. --- If you'd like to become a Member and get access to all our full ad free conversations, plus all of our Members-only content, just visit intelligencesquared.com/membership to find out more. For £4.99 per month you'll also receive: - Full-length and ad-free Intelligence Squared episodes, wherever you get your podcasts - Bonus Intelligence Squared podcasts, curated feeds and members exclusive series - 15% discount on livestreams and in-person tickets for all Intelligence Squared events  ...  Or Subscribe on Apple for £4.99: - Full-length and ad-free Intelligence Squared podcasts - Bonus Intelligence Squared podcasts, curated feeds and members exclusive series … Already a subscriber? Thank you for supporting our mission to foster honest debate and compelling conversations! Visit intelligencesquared.com to explore all your benefits including ad-free podcasts, exclusive bonus content and early access. … Subscribe to our newsletter here to hear about our latest events, discounts and much more. ⁠https://www.intelligencesquared.com/newsletter-signup/⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices