The Consumer Cushion Is Almost Gone | Weekly Roundup

Markets are partying like it’s 2021 again, but consumers are cracking, inflation is heating up, and policymakers may be losing control. This week, we unpack the AI-driven melt-up in equities, the hidden stress building across Main Street, and why hyperscaler debt, derivatives mania, and rising bond yields are creating an increasingly unstable macro backdrop. We also explore the consumer slowdown, Nvidia selling chips to China, tariff reversals, retail speculation, energy inflation, Fed paralysis, and the growing disconnect between capital markets and the real economy. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Dell Children’s Fundraiser 05:55 Monster Earnings And AI 07:59 Is This A Bubble? 12:52 The AI Economy Flywheel 14:56 Frothy AI Positioning 20:10 Consumer Stress Hits Retail 27:17 Main Street Is Breaking 31:54 Yields Pressuring Markets 34:41 Who Removes The Punch Bowl? 39:24 Will The Fed Accommodate AI? 42:26 Trump’s Policy Reversal 47:02 Populism Against AI Politics 51:55 $10k Donation Goal FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dYIYTeh-rRK9vHQG_Qa_6GtJuQbbcbc5/view?usp=sharing › Dell Children's Donation – https://give.supportdellchildrens.org/team/826061 DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

AI is holding up the economy, but the foundation underneath is getting harder to read. Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro joins Forward Guidance to unpack why inflation, labor, and AI capex are reshaping the Fed’s path. We cover the consumer squeeze, K-shaped spending, manufacturing data, Warsh’s Fed, and supply-shock volatility. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:54 The Real Inflation Story 06:26 Fed’s Higher Inflation Threshold 08:18 Why Labor Hasn't Broken 12:04 How To Read Supply Shocks 14:58 The Consumer Strength Illusion 19:20 The K-Shaped Consumer Debate 22:30 The AI Capex Macro Risk 26:03 Inside Trade & Manufacturing Data 29:18 Is Manufacturing Really Booming? 36:43 Warsh Faces An Impossible Fed 45:41 Fed Volatility Vs White House Policy 48:14 Final Thoughts FOLLOW NEIL DUTTA › X/Twitter – https://x.com/RenMacLLC FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward. Guidance– https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets are ripping while geopolitical risk, inflation, and class tensions boil under the surface, creating a growing disconnect between booming asset prices and the economic reality facing most people. This week, we break down the oil market, AI-driven growth, and the inflation dynamics shaping the global economy. We debate whether policymakers are intentionally running the economy hot to preserve growth and geopolitical leverage. We also dive into gold, housing, AI job disruption, consumer weakness, inequality, and why the next political and economic cycle could look even more unstable than markets expect. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:38 Oil Inventories Near Stress Levels 07:38 Trading Oil Volatility 13:45 Oil, China, And AI 17:13 Energy Exports Versus AI Imports 20:22 Can Statecraft Survive Inflation? 24:35 Earnings Keep Ripping 26:25 Run-It-Hot Inflation Regime 30:07 Gold Returns To The Spotlight 33:01 Run It Hot, Leverage, & Centralization 40:47 AI Hits The Labor Market 44:53 Housing And Replacement Costs 47:50 Inflation Hits Everyday Life FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-r4fcVGPGE15TIZN9JOGLQLu5ATcGPYl/view?usp=sharing DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Inflation may be reaccelerating just as policymakers are mistaking inaction for restraint. Danny Dayan joins the show to explain why passive easing, loose financial conditions, and supply shocks could leave the Fed behind the curve again. We discuss inflation, oil, labor supply, neutral rates, risk assets, the dollar, commodities, and why the melt-up may continue. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:53 Why Is Growth So Strong? 07:31 How Forward Guidance Drives Policy 11:53 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 12:45 Why Oil Hasn’t Broken Growth 19:02 Why Inflation Won’t Die 21:52 What Warsh Changes At The Fed 29:54 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 30:38 Why The Fed Is Always Late 36:45 The Fed’s Neutral Rate Mistake 43:05 The Melt-Up Trade Setup 48:57 Where To Find Danny FOLLOW DANNY DAYAN › X/Twitter – https://x.com/DannyDayan5 › Substack – https://dannydayan.substack.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › FIDELITY CRYPTO This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at Fidelity.com/crypto Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC. https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets may be entering a volatile new regime where inflation, geopolitics, and policy fragmentation collide, challenging the stability investors have relied on for decades. This week, we break down the latest Fed meeting and what it signals about shifting power from central banks toward fiscal and political forces shaping markets. We also explore rising inflation pressures, fiscal dominance, oil shocks, Japan’s growing instability, and why traditional macro playbooks may no longer apply. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 03:08 Fed Dissents And Warsh 08:45 No Cuts Without Crisis 11:04 End Of The Powell Era 14:03 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 15:01 Global Yields Break Higher 17:23 Inflationary Growth Regime 20:11 Oil Shock Hits Markets 23:25 Export Ban Risk 28:26 Late Cycle Boom 36:34 Japan’s Breaking Point 48:24 Carry Trade Lose Lose 53:08 The Yield Smile 57:05 Inflation Wave Baked In 01:00:25 Hard Assets Win FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1pKJPVYyMItlwJcDPJiD2ST19OzeojYPB/view?usp=sharing SPONSORS › FIDELITY CRYPTO This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at Fidelity.com/crypto Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC. https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

AI may be the most powerful economic force since the internet, but its true impact remains deeply uncertain. Steve Hou, Senior Quant Researcher at Bloomberg and a macroeconomist by training, joins us to unpack how AI is reshaping markets, investment cycles, and economic thinking. We explore whether this is just another bubble or something far more structural. We dive into AI-driven capex, productivity illusions, labor market shifts, inflation dynamics, and whether AI can actually solve the U.S. debt problem. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 03:21 AI’s Macro Impact 06:48 Historical Tech Bubbles 10:25 AI Capex Drives Growth 14:13 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 15:23 How Big Can The Bubble Get? 20:14 Agentic AI Compute Demand 24:10 AI Is Too Cheap 28:15 Productivity Mirage 33:03 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 34:24 Fed Policy And AI 41:02 Can AI Fix Debt? 47:34 Physical World Bottlenecks 49:47 The Future Of Economics FOLLOW STEVE HOU › X/Twitter – https://x.com/stevehou FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › FIDELITY CRYPTO This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at Fidelity.com/crypto Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC. https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets feel stable on the surface, but conflicting forces are building around Fed uncertainty, AI-driven growth, and structural imbalances that may not coexist for long. This week, we break down break down the Warsh hearing and concerns over Fed credibility to a potential re-industrialization and what’s actually driving resilience in the economy. We also explore AI-driven capex as the true growth engine, labor and credit dynamics, geopolitical pressures, dollar dominance, and the growing tension between asset inflation and societal change. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 04:49 Kevin Warsh Hearing 13:11 Oil Shock Meets Strong Data 16:51 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 17:15 AI Capex Boom 24:02 Data Centers Remake Economy 33:25 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 34:12 Church Beats OnlyFans 47:04 Dollar Dominance Surges 51:47 Dollar Wrecking Ball 57:58 ESG Trade Dies FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vCQT4biQJI-d10B0-OuD7MxJlq-kW9tl/view?usp=sharing SPONSORS › FIDELITY CRYPTO This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at Fidelity.com/crypto Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC. https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Liquidity may be sending a very different signal than most investors think, challenging the dominant narrative around growth, rates, and risk. We sit down with Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital, a leading voice on global liquidity, to unpack where we are in the cycle and why his framework diverges from consensus views on markets and the economy. We explore the liquidity vs. business cycle divide, yield curve dynamics, Treasury-driven liquidity, rising commodities, and why all signals may be pointing toward a late-cycle shift. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:31 Global Liquidity Turning Lower 06:24 Liquidity Cycle vs Economy 11:29 Recession Fears vs Data 17:28 Treasury Stimulus and Buybacks 23:40 Why Bond Volatility Matters 31:56 Warsh and the Next Regime 39:29 What Interest Rates Really Mean 47:13 Positioning for Turbulence 58:08 Where to Follow Michael FOLLOW MICHAEL › X/Twitter – https://x.com/crossbordercap › Substack – https://capitalwars.substack.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets are ripping higher, but something underneath feels increasingly disconnected from reality. This week, we break down the growing dominance of flows, derivatives, and policy over fundamentals, and what that means for how markets actually move. We explore extreme positioning, retail chasing, sticky inflation, policy incentives into midterms, and why capital markets may be losing integrity in an environment driven by liquidity and narrative rather than fundamentals. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 03:20 Historic Rally, Broken Market 06:09 Dollar Weakness Drives Everything 08:39 Volatility, Retail, And Trump 12:11 What Actually Moves Markets 16:52 Allbirds And AI Mania 21:04 Inflation Is Turning Higher 26:32 Midterms And More Stimulus 30:07 Housing Versus Asset Prices 34:00 Negative Real Yields World FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wFcQCeXRDIJX9c7g0Vn1H2IcBHNXdbbN/view?usp=sharing DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

AI is reshaping how decisions get made in markets, but does faster insight actually create better outcomes, or just new risks? We speak with Jan Szilagyi, CEO of Reflexivity and former global macro investor, on how AI is being deployed inside hedge funds and why this moment may be more transformative than the ChatGPT hype cycle suggests. We explore AI-driven idea generation, solving small sample size problems, execution gaps, labor disruption, and whether a world of universal AI tools compresses alpha or expands it. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:01 From Druckenmiller to Macro 05:28 Why the Name Reflexivity 07:58 Why AI Unlocks Finance 11:40 Solving Small-Sample Macro 17:19 Known and Unknown Unknowns 23:15 When Data Beats Chatbots 28:27 Does AI Kill Alpha? 34:02 Best Strategies for AI 39:13 Jobs, Productivity, and Policy 45:10 Compute Needs Real Resources FOLLOW GUEST › Reflexivity X – https://x.com/ReflexivityAi › Reflexivity Website – https://reflexivity.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.