2026 Global Credit Outlook: Resilience, Risks, and What to Watch

Justin Patrie and Sarah Repucci unpack Fitch’s Global Credit Outlook, highlighting resilient credit conditions, pressures in China and Canada, and key risks, including strain on lower‑income U.S. consumers, tariff volatility and geopolitical shocks.

Todd Martinez and Josh Grundleger discuss the US ouster of Nicolas Maduro, the revived Monroe Doctrine, and key risks for Latin America, including oil investment, debt restructuring, regional market reactions, and impacts on migration and tourism.

Brian Coulton and Ed Parker discuss Fitch’s Global Economic Outlook, reviewing where the world economy stands at the close of 2025 and key trends for 2026, from AI-driven investment and resilient U.S. equities to China’s sharp investment slowdown.

Lyuba Petrova, Lyle Margolis and Justin Patrie examine bubble risks as equities surge, credit spreads tighten, private credit faces hidden vulnerabilities and AI investment accelerates, though valuations suggest buyers aren’t overpaying.

Shelly Shetty and Todd Martinez analyze Argentina’s mid-term elections, what Milei’s stronger legislative backing means for reforms, and the lingering risks around reserves and external liquidity.

James Longsdon, Head of Global Sovereigns and Supranationals, and Federico Barriga Salazar, Head of Western European Sovereign Ratings, discuss Western Europe’s fiscal divergence, recent upgrades and downgrades, and Fitch’s deficit outlook.

Justin Patrie, Head of Credit Commentary & Research, and Sarah Repucci, Senior Director, Credit Commentary & Research, discuss emerging challenges for the AI-fueled US data center boom, covering investment, rising costs, impact on utilities and more.

Paul Gamble, Head of Middle East and Africa (MEA) Sovereigns, and Cedric Berry, Director, MEA Sovereigns, discuss GCC efforts to diversify their economies beyond oil, and the varied pace of progress across the region.

Justin Patrie and Duncan Innes-Ker discuss how emerging market credits are faring this year amid slower global growth, geopolitical risks, and shifting U.S. policy - highlighting ratings resilience and modest positive momentum.

Justin Patrie and David Prowse discuss key themes from Fitch’s Global Credit Risk Outlook, including slower growth, tariff uncertainty, and weaker credit conditions—as well as the overall ratings resilience amid these challenges.