Episode 517: Rare Earths and Realpolitik: Inside the U.S. Australia Deal

Today, Jess, Martha, Les, and Matt break down the newest wave of U.S. sanctions targeting Russian oil exports — measures designed to cut off Russia’s funding for war in Ukraine. The package includes new secondary sanctions aimed at major buyers like India and China. India is signaling a possible rethink of its Russian oil purchases, Europe is weighing the use of frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine, and — for the first time in months — the U.S. and its allies seem aligned on a tougher, coordinated economic strategy.Will this escalation of targeting Russia’s oil exports finally dent its war machine? Or has Russia already perfected the art of sanctions evasion? If these economic measures are paired with renewed military support for Ukraine, could that combination finally shift momentum on the battlefield?More information on today’s topic: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd6758pn6ylo https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/10/23/russia-nuclear-subs-western-technology-surevillance/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/10/23/eu-frozen-russian-money-ukraine/ @nottvjessjones@lestermunson@marthamillerdc@WMattHaydenLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/RmkPm4F-3Rs  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Martha, Andy, and Jess discuss Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s White House visit and a pair of major announcements: a reinvigorated AUKUS partnership and a new U.S.–Australia critical minerals deal. While both moves signal deepening strategic and economic ties, the real test will be delivery, building nuclear-powered submarines, securing rare earth supply chains, and reducing reliance on China’s market dominance.Can Washington and Canberra turn these announcements into action, or will timelines and industrial bottlenecks slow progress into the 2030s? Is this partnership a true step toward allied self-reliance, or mostly a political win for both leaders? And with China already waging what some would call supply chain warfare, how quickly can the U.S. and its allies really catch up?More information on today’s topic: https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-anthony-albanese-submarine-australia-trade-7db18e2b942176623dcad283bfad3a6c https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-expedite-nuclear-powered-subs-australia-sit-near-chinas-doorstep https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/china-responds-us-australia-rare-earths-dealvhttps://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/10/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-closes-billion-dollar-deals-with-australia/ @lestermunson@marthamillerdc@nottvjessjones@andykeiserLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/3Ey3hLUZHq0  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Jamil, Martha, and Jess unpack the growing tension between Washington and Bogotá after President Trump accused Colombian President Gustavo Petro of running a drug manufacturing regime and threatened to slash aid and impose tariffs. The escalation follows Colombia’s inclusion last month on the U.S. list of countries failing to cooperate with anti-narcotics efforts—and a U.S. strike on a Colombian vessel in the Caribbean that Washington claims was tied to narco-trafficking.Is this just political posturing or a real rupture with one of America’s closest partners in Latin America? Can Trump’s hard line curb Colombia’s rising coca production, or will it drive Bogotá closer to China and other regional players? And with talk of covert operations in Venezuela, is the administration risking another fight in the neighborhood just as it needs allies the most?@marthamillerdc@nottvjessjones@morganlroach@jamil_n_jafferLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/fLCzJZfmi-E  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Martha, Les, Jess, and Algene discuss President Trump’s renewed focus on Ukraine following the Gaza ceasefire. President Zelensky is in Washington this week to discuss the possibility of Washington providing Tomahawk missiles—a move seen as both a gesture of support for Kyiv and a signal to Moscow. But after Trump’s recent call with Vladimir Putin, it’s hard to say exactly where things stand or how far the administration is willing to go.Is this strategic balance between deterrence and diplomacy sustainable? Can Trump apply lessons from the Israel–Hamas peace deal to the Russia–Ukraine conflict, or are the stakes, and the adversaries, fundamentally different? And with Congress stalled on tougher sanctions, will symbolic gestures like limited missile transfers have real impact, or is this summit diplomacy without substance?@marthamillerdc@nottvjessjones@lestermunson@AlgeneSajeryLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/GycTO7AQ31U  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Jamil, Martha, and Les discuss the wave of Gen Z–led protests shaking governments across continents—from Madagascar and Nepal, where leaders have fled, to Indonesia and beyond.  Driven by unemployment, corruption, and economic strain, these youth movements are leveraging social media and grassroots organizing to challenge entrenched power structures and, in some cases, topple leaders.Are we seeing a new wave of youth-driven revolutions—a social-media-era sequel to the Arab Spring? What does growing instability in strategic regions like the Mozambique Channel mean for the U.S.? And how should Washington rethink its aid, training, and partnerships as political landscapes shift under generational pressure?Check out the sources that helped shape our experts’ discussion: https://apnews.com/article/madagascar-protests-rajoelina-ab1e1eb1aca45fe7e80e81314ebdb0c6 https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cqxr3y3788pt https://www.npr.org/2025/10/13/nx-s1-5573511/madagascar-president-flees-country-military-rebellion https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/oct/14/this-generation-is-defiant-gen-z-protests-set-to-resume-in-morocco-despite-deaths-and-arrests https://www.dw.com/en/gen-z-protests-why-are-asias-youth-so-angry/a-74349495 https://www.nbcnews.com/world/asia/protests-asia-gen-z-nepal-indonesia-rcna231096  @nottvjessjones@lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@marthamillerdcLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/t6dAKr7O_fU  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Amy, and Matt unpack the breakthrough in the Israel–Hamas peace process and what it means for U.S. foreign policy under President Trump. With the release of all remaining Israeli hostages, the exchange of Palestinian prisoners, and the implementation of Trump’s 20-point plan, the first phase of the agreement is underway—marking a major diplomatic win for the administration.But what comes next? The team explores the broader implications: from renewed U.S. influence in the Middle East to the potential for progress on other global fronts. Could this model be applied to challenges like the war in Ukraine or U.S.–China trade tensions? Is the Trump approach to diplomacy—high stakes, high visibility—emerging as a new blueprint for American power projection?@lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@amykmitchell@WMattHaydenLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/wxbO8chMjSM  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Martha, Jamil, and Andrew unpack the implementation of the Israel-Hamas peace agreement. The first phase includes the return of Israeli hostages, the exchange of Palestinian prisoners and limited Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Jared Kushner has also returned to the diplomatic stage—a possible sign for the Trump administration’s plans for the region. But major questions remain about Hamas’s disarmament, Gaza’s long-term governance, and the durability of a ceasefire.Can this plan truly hold, or is it just another fragile truce in a long line of short-lived deals? Will the United States sustain pressure on both Israel and Hamas to implement each phase? And with Kushner’s return and growing regional buy-in, could this moment mark not only a breakthrough in Gaza but a broader turning point for Israel-Arab normalization?@morganlroach@marthamillerdc@jamil_n_jaffer@AndrewBoreneLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/BMADWVQ1YQw  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Martha and Andy break down the results of the Czech parliamentary elections, where voter turnout hit a record 69%. Andrej Babiš’s populist party dominated the polls but fell short of a majority, setting up months of coalition negotiations that could reshape Czechia’s political landscape. With inflation, energy costs, and living standards driving the debate, Babiš campaigned on tax cuts, re-nationalizing energy, and pushing back on Brussels, raising questions about future support for Ukraine and the EU’s climate agenda and migrant policies.Will Babiš’s win shift Czechia’s posture toward NATO and the EU? Can Prague maintain its leadership in supporting Ukraine and countering Russian disinformation, or will a more skeptical government open space for Moscow’s influence? And as U.S. observers draw parallels between Babiš and Trump, what could this election mean for transatlantic politics and the broader populist wave sweeping Europe?Check out these sources that helped shape our expert’s discussion: https://www.rferl.org/a/babis-czech-election-victory-brussels-kyiv-eu/33550348.html https://www.politico.eu/article/five-key-takeaways-from-the-czech-election/ https://www.politico.eu/article/czech-elections-president-petr-pavel-nato-eu-cabinet-talks-andrej-babis/ https://x.com/AmbDanFried/status/1974536514785947896 @marthamillerdc@AndyKeiserLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/zGHVh4zlBJM  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Jamil, Les, and Marc discuss the ongoing negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Egypt—talks that come just before the second anniversary of the October 7th terrorist attacks. Hamas has reportedly agreed in principle to release the remaining hostages and relinquish control of Gaza, while Israel would scale back to earlier positions. But with both sides signaling changes on the margins, questions remain about whether a real deal is on the table or just diplomatic theater.Is this the closest we’ve come to ending the war in Gaza, or another false start? How much pressure is Trump’s administration exerting behind the scenes and is his approach of public pressure and private deal-making actually working? If a ceasefire does take hold, what comes next for Israel’s security, Hamas’s political future, and the regional actors now lining up behind Trump’s plan?@morganlroach@lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@WashingtonFlackLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/wp-QR68OzDQ  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Martha, Les, and Algene break down a week of developments at the Pentagon. Amidst a rebrand, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth gathered nearly 800 top generals and admirals from across the world for a headline-grabbing meeting in Virginia. At the same time, the current federal shutdown has left military pay uncertain, stalled defense contracting, and cut back intelligence and cyber staff. And with new requirements for NDAs and random polygraphs, questions are growing about whether these measures enhance security or risk undermining trust and transparency.Was Hegseth’s Quantico meeting a culture reset or a show of control? How does the government shutdown impact defense readiness and U.S. credibility abroad? Are Pentagon press limits about protecting government secrets or shutting down the rumor mill?@lestermunson@marthamillerdc@NotTVJessJones@algenesajeryLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: Today, Jess, Martha, Les, and Algene break down a week of developments at the Pentagon. Amidst a rebrand, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth gathered nearly 800 top generals and admirals from across the world for a headline-grabbing meeting in Virginia. At the same time, the current federal shutdown has left military pay uncertain, stalled defense contracting, and cut back intelligence and cyber staff. And with new requirements for NDAs and random polygraphs, questions are growing about whether these measures enhance security or risk undermining trust and transparency.Was Hegseth’s Quantico meeting a culture reset or a show of control? How does the government shutdown impact defense readiness and U.S. credibility abroad? Are Pentagon press limits about protecting government secrets or shutting down the rumor mill?@lestermunson@marthamillerdc@NotTVJessJones@algenesajeryLike what we're doing here?  Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe.  And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/OYpLPfRROwE Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.