My outlook for 2026: orchestration, the human edge and the AI bubble

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years.Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic.To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/-----At Davos 2026, the mood was unlike any previous World Economic Forum gathering. With Donald Trump arriving amid escalating geopolitical tensions and European leaders sounding alarms about sovereignty, I recorded live dispatches from the ground. In this special episode, I bring together observations from four days at the annual meeting, tracking the seismic shifts in global order alongside the practical realities of AI adoption in the enterprise.Skip to the best bits:(00:38) Day one at Davos(02:10) Three recurring themes through the week(03:55) Day three at Davos(05:12) Mark Carney's stirring speech(05:52) Why European leaders are sounding the alarm(06:51) Why technological sovereignty just became urgent(09:31) Day four at Davos(12:59) What leaders really have to say on AI adoption(14:07) The case for only using open source modelsWhere to find me:Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeemProduction by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1. Production and research: Chantal Smith and Marija Gavrilov. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years.Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic.To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/------In this episode, Peter McCrory, Head of Economics at Anthropic, unpacks the company's new Economic Index report. His team analysed millions of real Claude conversations to map exactly where AI is augmenting human work today and where it isn't. We explore the striking divergence between API and chat usage, why businesses need to extract tacit knowledge to unlock AI's potential, the "hollow ladder" risk for junior workers, and Anthropic's estimate that AI could add 1.0-1.8% to annual productivity growth over the next decade.Skip to the best parts:(00:00) Anthropic's Economic Index report(01:20) Claude's two distinct usage patterns(06:22) Examining AI's impact on the labor market(09:20) Where most businesses think too small(12:03) Why extracting tacit knowledge is so important(20:33) How do we create the next generation of experts?(23:22) Why people need to develop cognitive endurance(29:55) Long-term vs. short-term productivity(35:56) The future of human knowledge(37:46) Could AI's greatest impact go unmeasured?(41:55) How task bottlenecks have moved(46:09) Implementation resembles a staircase - not a curve(50:47) "Capability doesn't instantly deliver adoption"------Where to find me:Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeemProduction by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1. Production and research: Chantal Smith and Marija Gavrilov. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ -------- In this episode, I share my outlook for 2026 and explain why AI tools now feel genuinely different. I explore how the act of making has been transformed, why authenticity and meaning will become the new scarcity, and whether the foundations of energy and capital can hold. I also address the question I was asked most in 2025: when will the AI bubble burst? Skip to the best bits: 00:00 Why AI feels different in 2026 01:59 The six shifts in AI 03:32 The "done list" era 06:43 From execution to orchestration 09:02 The agentic coding revolution 11:10 What's a Chief Question Officer? 13:58 Three ways value will be created 16:27 "Claude told me to use ChatGPT" 18:02 The AI usage gap 20:30 The new moat in 2026 26:10 How does solar growth affect AI? 28:53 Revisiting the bubble or boom question ------ Where to find me: Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/ Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Production and research: Chantal Smith and Marija Gavrilov. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ ------ In this episode, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman and I discuss how a strong US economy, high asset valuations, and rapid AI adoption are sitting in uneasy tension. We explore what past technology cycles can teach us, why safety nets struggle to address disruption, and where genuine optimism still makes sense. This is a January 2025 rerun, which remains strikingly relevant today. We covered: (01:09) State of the US economy (02:28) "That end of 1999 feeling" (05:08) Insights and lessons from the dotcom bubble (09:57) Why today's market is different (13:44) Understanding AI's role in labor displacement (16:05) Are LLMs "souped-up autocorrect"? (20:14) How job displacement erodes communities (23:40) 2025's looming threat of tariffs (26:16) AI's surprising impact on globalization (30:15) Can markets address inequality? (33:06) The maximum level of sustainable national debt (36:31) When should the Fed raise interest rates? (38:57) The need to revitalize local economies (44:53) Did Paul's 2025 predictions come true? ------ Where to find me: Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/ Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Production and research: Chantal Smith and Marija Gavrilov. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ --- What made 2025 special? In this episode, I reflect on the past year and what it revealed: a K-shaped divide. On one track, AI models are now doing hours of high quality work, improving at exponential pace, and shifting how we work from doing to judging. On the other, organisations and the broader economy are struggling to keep up. Stay to the end for my seasonal film recommendation. I cover:(00:00) Intro (00:45) The state of tool usage in 2025 (6:10) The gap between AI progress and organizational adoption (9:53) AI’s shockingly rapid revenue growth (11:17) The biggest mistake smart people make with AI (14:14)  The inescapable need for physical infrastructure (16:06) What everyone was asking in 2025 (18:08) The new winners of the AI economy (20:48) Why “K” is the letter of 2025 (24:08) Seasonal movie recommendation ---- Where to find me: Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/ Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem  Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Production and research: Chantal Smith and Marija Gavrilov. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ --- In this episode, I’ve distilled a year of extraordinary dialogue into one 20-minute briefing. I’ve spent 2025 in conversation with the architects of our future - the builders and thinkers redefining AI, energy, and the global economy.These are the "eureka" moments from my most exclusive interviews. From the future of "protopia" with Kevin Kelly to the hidden tech gaps with Dan Wang, this is your strategic roadmap for the exponential age.What you'll hear about:Part 1: AI as a general purpose techKevin Weil: The heuristic for startupsMatthew Prince: The “Socialist” pricing debateTyler Cowen: This will stifle the AI boomNick Thompson: The "NBA-ification" of JournalismKevin Kelly: From utopia to protopiaKevin Kelly: Technology as a "possibility factory”Part 2: How work is changingSteve Hsu: The future of educationThomas Dohmke: The inspectability turning pointBen Zweig: The new role for entry-level workersBen Zweig: Why are there so many hiring freezes?Ben Zweig: The eroding signal of higher educationPart 3: The physical world, compute, and energyGreg Jackson: The "crossing the road" metaphorGreg Jackson: Building a “show don’t tell” companyDan Wang, The "physical reality" of AIPart 4: The changing US China landscapeDan Wang: The West’s hidden tech gapJordan Schneider: The two types of accelerationismJordan Schneider: Why the US can learn from ChinaWhere to find me: Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Production and research: Chantal Smith, Marija Gavrilov and Hannah Petrovic Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this channel or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ --- In this episode, I look at the next 24 months of AI. The technology is improving rapidly – so what could hold back widespread transformation of how we work and live? I dig into the real constraints, from electricity shortages to institutional inertia, why mid-2026 matters for enterprise AI, and why so many people remain uneasy about a technology they use every day. I cover: (00:03) Predicting AI's next two years (01:50) How life changing are chatbots, really? (03:36) Our current biggest AI constraint (07:58) The remarkable increase in token efficiency (10:43) Why mid-2026 is a crucial turning point (13:01) Do we actually want AI in our lives? (15:28) Should organizations wait to jump in? (16:39) How is OpenAI reckoning with Gemini? (18:41) The market's reaction to OpenAI's code red (19:32) Where will value accrue in the supply chain? (20:51) What's the best strategy for middling powers?Where to find me: Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar/Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Production and research: Chantal Smith and Marija Gavrilov. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Welcome to Exponential View, the show where I explore how exponential technologies such as AI are reshaping our future. I've been studying AI and exponential technologies at the frontier for over ten years. Each week, I share some of my analysis or speak with an expert guest to make light of a particular topic. To keep up with the Exponential transition, subscribe to this podcast or to my newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ --- In this episode, I reflect on the third anniversary of ChatGPT's launch as a marker of where we are in the exponential age. As a product, ChatGPT captures the speed of technological progress, the new behaviours emerging around it and the widening gap between innovation and institutional change – all symptomatic of the era I called the exponential age in my 2021 book. I cover: (00:09) How ChatGPT became synonymous with AI (01:41) The rise of the reasoning model (03:53) Why NVIDIA's chip cycle is exponential (05:53) How general-purpose tech changes everything (07:59) The subtle power of building bespoke software (11:46) The iPhone calculation that breaks everything (14:53) Who profits from a general-purpose technology? (16:38) The software market example (20:07) Are we headed towards another .com crash?  Where to find me: Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: /azhar Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Production and research: Chantal Smith and Marija Gavrilov. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The AI industry is sending mixed signals, with markets turning red while teams report real productivity gains. In this session I explore why we are living in a split reality, where individuals move faster with these tools but the wider economy is ambivalent. We once assumed juniors would get the biggest lift from AI, yet the newer agentic tools seem to reward senior workers who know how to structure problems and judge output. In this podcast, I look at the evidence behind that shift and explain how these gains collide with the slow grind of organisational processes. I cover: (00:00) AI productivity: A split reality (00:31) Decoding the stock market drop (02:53) Unpacking three years of AI productivity data (06:09) Does AI help junior or senior developers more? (09:54) The surprising group benefitting from AI (11:45) Why is there a productivity gap? (13:08) Most companies need a process overhaul (14:33) Anthropic's alarming discovery (16:45) So, are we moving quickly enough? (17:29) The counterintuitive truth about AI productivity  Where to find me:- Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ - Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ - - LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar - Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem  Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Production and research: Chantal Smith, Hannah Petrovic and Marija Gavrilov. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Junior roles in AI-exposed fields are disappearing fast. The obvious culprit is AI rapidly automating entry-level jobs. And yet, this isn't quite right. What is driving the drop is managers’ expectations about what AI will do, not the work that it's already replacing. I discussed this with Ben Zweig of Revelio Labs, which builds global workforce data from millions of individual profiles to track hiring, separations and job flows. Their data shows how expectation and uncertainty are reshaping the market.Together, we explored the future of work and shared practical advice for new grads. We covered: (01:15) What's happening in the labor market? (05:27) The inherent complexity of the labor market (06:24) How Revelio Labs captures labor market data (08:39) "The Canary in the Coal Mine" (11:52) Who does AI exposure harm the most? (13:01) How AI anticipation is harming the job market (15:15) Testing the expectation mismatch hypothesis (17:30) Could AI be creating more jobs? (20:44) Breaking down jobs into smaller tasks (27:33) Why large companies struggle to reorganize (30:35) Focus on creating adaptive, flexible roles (36:03) Managing AI's increasing capability (39:11) What entry-level workers need to do Where to find me: - Exponential View newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ - Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ - LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar - Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Where to find Ben: - https://www.linkedin.com/in/ben-zweig/ - Twitter/X: https://x.com/BJZweig - Revelio Labs: https://www.reveliolabs.com/ Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Production and research: Chantal Smith, Hannah Petrovic and Marija Gavrilov. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.