Lula’s Comeback and Challenges Ahead

Ecuador is facing one of the most consequential moments in its recent history. President Daniel Noboa won reelection in April 2025 on a promise to restore public security, but despite an increasingly aggressive campaign against organized crime and closer ties with the United States, the country continues to struggle with entrenched criminal networks. Homicides are down about 8% this year after a record-setting 2025, and Noboa is increasingly compared to El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele. Now, local elections on November 29 will test Noboa’s political strength, with the main opposition party barred from running under its own name, and one of its top leaders in jail. Our guest is Sebastián Hurtado, co-founder and CEO of Prófitas, a political risk consultancy based in Quito.Guest:Sebastián Hurtado is founder and president of PRóFITAS, a leading political risk consultancy based in Quito.Host:Brian Winter is editor in chief of Americas QuarterlyIf you would like to know more: Ecuador: Daniel Noboa’s Crackdown at a Crossroads by Will FreemanThe Ecuador-Colombia Trade Spat Is a Zero-Sum Game by Sebastián HurtadoEcuador: A 2026 Snapshot by Emilie Sweigart

Since María Corina Machado returned to Venezuela on October 25, the country’s politics feel different. Many hope the opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate will speed up Venezuela’s return to democracy. Since Nicolás Maduro’s capture in January, the interim government of Delcy Rodríguez has passed an amnesty law, released hundreds of political prisoners, and joined U.S.-backed talks with part of the opposition. Yet much of the old system is still standing. Many officials who ran the regime’s security apparatus remain in their posts, Foro Penal counts more than 300 political prisoners, and there is still no date for a presidential election. How much will Machado’s return shake up Venezuelan politics, and what has to happen before Venezuelans can vote in a credible election? Our guest is Alfredo Romero, a lawyer and the executive director of Foro Penal, a Venezuelan human rights organization that represents political prisoners.Guest:Alfredo Romero is Executive Director of Foro Penal.Host:Brian Winter is editor in chief of Americas QuarterlyIf you would like to know more: REACTION: Machado’s Return to Venezuela Set to Test Democratic Transition by AQ EditorsCan Venezuela’s Push for Elections Succeed? by Benigno Alarcón Deza Venezuela’s Complicated U.S. Oil Deal by Luis A. PachecoVenezuela’s Overwhelming Electricity Crisis by Francisco Morandi and Luisa PalaciosThe Real Negotiation Venezuela Needs by Benigno Alarcón Deza

After a comeback and a win by more than four million votes, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva must now face a hostile Congress, nervous financial markets and an uncertain relationship with Washington. His opponent, Flávio Bolsonaro, has left for the United States, where he is alleging political persecution. Over a political career spanning more than 40 years, Lula has often evolved according to the needs of the moment. This time, will he take a more orthodox approach to the economy, with Brazil’s budget deficit approaching an unsustainable 10% of GDP? Will he bring more conservative figures into his government? And will he try to make peace with the Trump administration? Our guest is Fábio Zanini, editor of Painel, the political column of Folha de S.Paulo.Guest:Fábio Zanini is political columnist and editor at Folha de S.PauloHost:Brian Winter is editor in chief of Americas QuarterlyIf you would like to know more: REACTION: Lula Wins Brazil’s Presidency in Historic Comeback by AQ EditorsBrazil: Meet the Candidates 2026 by Emilie Sweigart Brazil’s Right Will Have Power Beyond the Presidency by Fernanda MagnottaTrump Pushes the Bolsonaros to the Brink by Brian Winter

Arguably no country has been more exposed to Donald Trump's second term than Mexico. The country sends more than 80% of its exports to its neighboring nation and receives more than $60 billion a year in remittances from citizens living in the U.S. President Claudia Sheinbaum has navigated the relationship with notable pragmatism, but tensions are rising again over U.S. demands for greater security cooperation, extradition requests for Morena politicians, and uncertainty over the future of the USMCA. Should Mexico take a more confrontational approach, as Canada has? Or is it destined to accommodate Washington? Our guest, Vanessa Rubio-Márquez, author of AQ's latest cover story, argues for a middle path: Mexico can hold firm on its red lines with Washington while taking steps to put its own house in order. Rubio-Márquez is a former Mexican senator and deputy minister, a professor of practice at the London School of Economics School of Public Policy, and a senior advisor at McLarty Associates.

Latin America is having its best economic outlook since the commodities boom of the 2000s. Record commodity prices, a weak U.S. dollar, a privileged position in the global trade war—selling to both the U.S. and China— and a wave of business-friendly governments are creating conditions the region hasn't seen in decades. But Latin America has defied rosy predictions before, and the outlook remains uncertain in its three largest economies: Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina. Today on the podcast, we ask what a new takeoff would mean in practical terms for growth, the markets, and its citizens; take stock of the region's most relevant economies; and examine what could prevent this favorable moment from becoming a lasting reality.Our guest is Ernesto Revilla, Chief Economist for Latin America at Citi and a member of AQ's editorial board.

Only a few weeks ago, there was a near consensus in Brazil that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was the favorite to win this October’s election over his main challenger, conservative Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.Today, most polls show the race is tied, and Flávio Bolsonaro seems to have the momentum. With the first round of voting on October 4 and a second round very likely on October 25, it’s been a unique—and to outsiders, somewhat confusing—campaign in Brazil. In recent months, the main issue has been not the economy, or security, as we’ve seen in other recent Latin American elections, but a corruption scandal involving Daniel Vorcaro, a disgraced banker whose network of influence and business ties extended to much of Brazil’s political and economic establishment. Back in May, Bolsonaro was badly damaged by alleged ties to Vorcaro. But more recently, attention has shifted to Vorcaro's alleged ties to Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Those revelations, in turn, seem to have damaged Lula.This week on the podcast, we look at the latest on the Vorcaro scandal and other key factors in this race, including the health of Brazil's economy and whether President Trump will try to intervene on behalf of the Bolsonaro family, with Thomas Traumann, a longtime political analyst and commentator, who is also a member of AQ’s editorial board.

We’re all used to hearing pessimistic headlines about the state of democracy in Latin America and beyond. But the latest edition of the AmericasBarometer survey suggests the mood may be shifting. Support for democracy across the Americas rose between 2023 and 2026, the first broad upturn in the region’s commitment to democracy in a generation. The survey, from Vanderbilt University’s Center for Global Democracy and the Kellogg Institute for International Studies at the University of Notre Dame, includes more than 25,000 interviews across 21 countries, from Argentina to the United States and Canada. It also offers a rare look inside Cuba, fresh data on how the region views China and the U.S. under President Trump, and a surprising decline in how many people say they want to emigrate. This week on the podcast, we break down the findings with Noam Lupu, Director of the Center for Global Democracy at Vanderbilt University.

On August 7th, Abelardo de la Espriella was inaugurated as Colombia's new president after winning an incredibly tight election. Three days later, a 7.4-magnitude earthquake struck the western part of the country, leaving damages close to $10 billion and devastating hundreds of municipalities across 15 departments. It was an extraordinary early test for a president still in his first week in office. De la Espriella came to power promising Milei-style fiscal cuts, a hardline security plan, and a sharp break from Gustavo Petro's four years in office: including restarting oil exploration, ending the total peace process, and launching joint military operations with the United States. Instead, his first major act was declaring a state of national emergency. Today on the podcast, we explore what his agenda looks like now on security, the economy, and the fiscal situation and ask how much he will still be able to get done. Our guest is Mauricio Cárdenas, former presidential candidate and minister of finance and Senior Scholar at Columbia University. Note: This episode incorrectly states that over 23 million people voted in the second round election in Colombia. The correct number is over 26 million votes. 

Venezuela's regime and parts of the political opposition are holding a new round of talks that analysts and citizens hope could lead to a democratic transition. The dialogue brings together Dinorah Figuera, representing the opposition-aligned 2015 National Assembly, and Jorge Rodríguez, brother of acting president Delcy Rodríguez and current head of the legislature. It comes more than seven months after the U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3rd, and at a moment when Washington has unprecedented leverage over Venezuelan affairs.Today on the podcast, we ask what Delcy Rodríguez actually wants out of this process, what role María Corina Machado will play given her absence from the talks, and whether the chavista regime is pursuing genuine change or simply stalling for time until Trump leaves office. Our guest is Anatoly Kurmanaev, international correspondent for The New York Times, who recently spent several weeks reporting from the country. He spoke to AQ from Germany. 

On July 28th, Keiko Fujimori took office as Peru’s ninth president in ten years. Most of her predecessors’ terms ended in impeachment, resignation, or prison. She won a June runoff by close to 50,000 votes, less than a full percentage point ahead of leftist Roberto Sánchez, and her inauguration ceremony captured the challenge ahead: Opposition lawmakers walked out of Congress rather than hear her inaugural address. Fujimori campaigned on stability, security, and economic reform, a message that resonated in a country where the homicide rate has doubled in recent years and where most agree the economy, despite growing last year, is still far from its potential. Her father’s shadow looms large: Alberto Fujimori stabilized Peru’s economy and defeated the Shining Path in the 1990s, but was later imprisoned for human rights abuses and corruption.Today on the podcast, we ask whether Keiko Fujimori can bring stability after a decade of chaos, unlock Peru’s economic potential, and navigate the country’s relationship with Washington and Beijing. Our guest is Alfredo Thorne, former Minister of Economy and Finance of Peru.