To Bomb or Not to Bomb

Professor Alex Wellerstein returns from the set of WIRED (watch his excellent appearance here) to help me understand the origins of Middle Eastern nuclear programs and where they stand today. From France’s covert assistance to Israel’s bomb program in the 1960s to the mysterious Vela incident over the South Atlantic, Wellerstein shows how nuclear weapons spread through unofficial networks of scientists, spies, and opportunistic allies. We explore Iran’s strategic nuclear hedging, Israel’s policy of deliberate ambiguity, and the disturbing possibility that recent attacks on Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities may force the country’s hand toward weaponization.

This week, we talk about rare earth metals. What are they, where do they come from, and how are they redefining global power? I’m joined by David Abraham, a natural resource strategist who saw the future of rare earths in 2010 while working in Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. When China cut off rare earth exports over a territorial dispute, Abraham realized these obscure elements, sprinkled into our steel, the magnets in our speakers, the phosphors in our screens, held more geopolitical power than oil ever could. The warnings in his book, “The Elements of Power,” now written 10 years ago, feel like reading a prophecy. Half the periodic table now flows through your iPhone, and China controls 90% of the world's refining capacity for these critical materials. As trade wars escalate and great power competition returns, the country that controls rare earths may control the Earth itself.

This week, we talk about the rise of the global battery industry: its history, key players, raw material struggles, and how China came to dominate it. To do so, I’m joined by Henry Sanderson, author of "Volt Rush: The Winners and Losers in the Race to Go Green." We trace the story of electrification from Volta’s early experiments to the supply chains that now shape global power. Sanderson brings decades of reporting to a narrative that reveals China’s industrial strategy, the entrepreneurs behind battery giants, and the troubling realities of mining cobalt, nickel, and lithium. Together, we examine how technology, geopolitics, massive wealth, and environmental trade-offs define the future of clean energy.

This week, we talk about Russian nuclear exports. Michael Seely, host of AtomicBlender, joins me to discuss the rise of Rosatom: Russia’s nuclear energy behemoth that now builds nearly half of the world’s new reactors. We trace its formation after the Soviet collapse, its grip on the nuclear fuel market, and its unmatched “turnkey” model for newcomer nations. Rosatom’s nuclear exports are more than just a commercial endeavour—they can reshape global influence for decades.Michael's videos on Canada, Russia, and Ukraine.

This week, we travel to the edge of the map with Aleksandr Surtcev, an engineer who has crewed Russian nuclear icebreakers along the Northern Sea Route. We explore how Russia’s Arctic fleet keeps this strategic corridor open, why floating nuclear plants are powering remote communities and mines, and what life looks like in a place where polar bears trail ships for fish and resupply markets pop up on the ice. Beneath the stories lies a deeper discussion of geopolitics, engineering, and the hard logistics of operating in one of the most unforgiving regions on Earth.

This week, Mark Nelson joins us to deliver his second annual “State of the Atom” address. The nuclear power landscape has transformed in the last two years. Russia continues its nuclear export dominance while the West at last awakens from its stupor, driven by an unexpected force: artificial intelligence's insatiable appetite for baseload power. From Amazon's billion-dollar Susquehanna deal to Three Mile Island's resurrection, Big Tech is discovering what nuclear advocates have long known: that when you need reliable electricity around the clock, few other generation sources compare. Nelson maps the new nuclear battlefield where Chinese reactors scale up to 1,700 megawatts, European phase-outs crumble, and Western teams scramble to assemble the talent and capital needed to compete.Read more on Substack.

This week, we talk solar power—a long overdue topic on Decouple. In the past, guests have often been critical of the value of renewables on grids without extensive storage, and of the quality of jobs that politicians often claim when justifying renewables programs. Today, however, we drop preconceptions and get to the nuts and bolts. My guest is Seaver Wang, director of the Climate and Energy Research Program at The Breakthrough Institute. Despite is imperfections, the solar power has a remarkable story, from its technological origins, to its dramatic cost reductions in the last decade, to the sheer scale of new capacity being added in places like China. We cover these topics and more in this episode: the Solar Masterclass.Watch now on YouTube.We talk aboutHistorical roots and evolution of solar technologyImpact of the German Energiewende and feed-in tariffsChina's rise to dominance in solar manufacturingEnergy-intensive production processes of polysiliconControversy over Uyghur forced labor in XinjiangSolar’s lifecycle emissions and environmental impactsDramatic cost reductions and economies of scaleLimitations and misconceptions in distributed solarFuture integration with battery storageRole of geopolitical and ethical issues in solar supply chains

We have an unusual episode today. One, because of its length (1 hour 40 minutes), and two, because I’m the guest. Joined by Aidan Morrison as acting host, I talk about a topic of intense interest to me: the Darlington SMR project in Ontario, Canada. I’ve been critical of this SMR project, which recently received its final investment decision, by calling for a pivot to CANDU reactors at the site.I use this episode to break down all my reasons for being critical, and to concede ground to this bold SMR project where earned. This is not the first place I’ve shared my reasoning (media interview here, LinkedIn post there), but it is the most in-depth.If you have time to listen to the full thing, I promise you will leave quite knowledgeable about the ambitious and capable Ontario nuclear sector, which I’ve studied and engaged with for years.Prompting this episode was the OPG’s final investment decision on the SMR and the revelation of its eye-watering cost estimates. I break down the $4.5 billion price tag for the first unit, the expected learning that will take place, and share why this represents not just a technical and economic challenge, but a strategic mistake that could undermine Canada’s competitive advantage in nuclear power. From the massive excavation challenges of burying a reactor ten stories underground to the national security risks of abandoning proven CANDU technology for American designs, I hope to share some of the hard truths behind the SMR hype.Read extended shownotes on Substack.Watch now on YouTube.

This week, we return to nuclear power. Specifically, nuclear construction and “learning curves.” It is intuitive that doing something over and over makes you better at it. In industry, this means driving down costs and timelines and boosting efficiencies. In many industries, the truth of learning curves is readily apparent. However, in Western nuclear construction it has been largely absent for decades. Robbie Stewart, CTO of Alva Energy, joins me to dissect why the nuclear industry struggles with what other industries take for granted, and highlight a few cases in nuclear that managed to buck this trend. From France's standardized reactor fleet to China's recent AP1000 acceleration, we explore the prerequisites for nuclear construction learning and why it takes more than just good engineering.We discuss:Wright's Law and its application (or misapplication) to nuclear constructionWhy nuclear is fundamentally different from factory-floor manufacturingThe three categories of nuclear learning: fixing mismanagement, technology insertion, and construction optimizationStatistical analysis of what drives successful learning rates in nuclear programsFrance's P4 series and South Korea's OPR-1000 as learning success storiesChina's dramatic improvements in AP1000 construction times through supply chain masteryThe critical role of integrated project management and utility ownershipPrerequisites for learning: standardized design, sequential builds, and institutional commitmentWhy inter-site learning is harder than intra-site learningThe developer model as a potential solution for geographic learning constraintsOntario's SMR program as a test case for modern nuclear learningRead extended shownotes on Substack

This week, I’m joined by Kyle Chan, author of the recent NYTimes Op-Ed titled "In the Future, China Will Be Dominant. The U.S. Will Be Irrelevant." Exploring the intense competitive pressures of Chinese “involution capitalism” and America’s fixation on shareholder returns, we discuss America’s waning relevance in global technology and manufacturing, and how critical choices made now could shape the economic and geopolitical landscape for decades.Chan is a postdoctoral researcher at Princeton University, adjunct researcher at the RAND Corporation, and the author of High Capacity.