Iran Conflict Brief: Ali Ansari on What's Going on Inside Iran

On the eve of President Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the global energy landscape faces a moment of unprecedented risk. With dated Brent crude already surging past $140 a barrel, the threat of tit-for-tat infrastructure strikes looms over the region. In this episode, Daniel Sternoff speaks with Ali Ansari about what's happening in Iran, how decisions are getting made, and how the regional energy landscape is being permanently reshaped. The conversation delves into the fractured state of Iranian decision-making following the death of Khamenei and the rise of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as both a military and a corporate hegemon. Ali explains how the IRGC's "mosaic defense" strategy has devolved operational command to local levels, creating a political system that struggles to coordinate even basic utilities like gas and water for its citizens. Ali Ansari is a professor of Iranian history and the founding director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews. He is also a senior associate fellow with the Royal United Services Institute and the author of multiple books on the politics of modern Iran. Credits: Hosted by Daniel Sternoff. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.  

While US and Israeli forces have significantly degraded Iran's military and nuclear capability, the global energy landscape remains in a precarious position. For weeks, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut to tanker traffic, causing physical markets to tighten and rationing to spread across Asia. With the US considering an "off-ramp" to declare victory, the world faces a critical dilemma: can the global economy survive a peace that leaves Iran in control of the world's most vital maritime chokepoint? In this episode of the Iran Conflict Brief, host Daniel Sternoff speaks with Robin Mills to provide a view from the ground in Dubai. They discuss the reality of living under frequent drone and missile alerts, the "tit-for-tat" targeting of industrial infrastructure, and what it would take to reopen the Gulf. They also explore the long-term threat to the GCC's economic diversification models and the potential multi-year recovery timeline for regional LNG production. Robin Mills is a Dubai-based non-resident fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy and the CEO of Qamar Energy. With over two decades of experience in the Middle East, including roles at Shell and the Emirates National Oil Company, Robin is a leading authority on regional oil and gas business development and the author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis. Credits: Hosted by Daniel Sternoff. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.

During President Trump's second term, the administration has taken unprecedented action in the US private sector. The federal government's investments in critical mineral mining and chip manufacturing are two examples. The Trump administration has also embraced tariffs, framing them as tools for economic security and a domestic industrial revival. This shift toward state intervention into private markets, done in the name of national security and economic security, has some bipartisan support. It also has major implications for energy security and the clean energy transition. So how can this new form of American state capitalism be conceptualized? Is the Trump administration's use of these tools different from prior US government programs to support critical industries, like the Biden-era investments under the CHIPS Act? And what are the best strategies for aligning industrial policy with goals around energy security, supply chain resilience, and innovation? Today on the show, Jason Bordoff speaks with Daleep Singh about how the US deploys economic statecraft and the need for a framework to guide its use. Daleep Singh is vice chair and chief global economist at asset management firm PGIM and a thought leader on global policy and macroeconomic trends. He first joined PGIM in 2022, before serving the Biden administration as deputy national security advisor for international economics and deputy director of the National Economic Council. Earlier in his career, he held roles at the New York Federal Reserve and the US Treasury Department. Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, Alice Manos, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.  

Today marks the last day of CERAWeek, the annual energy industry conference sometimes described as the Davos of energy. As oil and gas CEOs and government officials gathered in Houston, efforts to broker a ceasefire in Iran failed, and US oil and gasoline prices whipsawed. Speaking at the conference, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that the current supply disruptions would be short term, framing rising energy costs as a trade-off for the administration's goal of regime change in Iran. Meanwhile, some oil and gas CEOs warned of coming shortages and said the supply shock is not yet reflected in energy prices. So, aside from a prevailing sense of instability, what are the takeaways from this year's CERAWeek? Where is the energy crisis headed from here? What have the supply shocks changed about how the industry thinks about risk and resource planning? How are events in the Gulf affecting the renewable, coal, and nuclear energy markets? And what does it all mean for global energy security? Today, in a special edition of Columbia Energy Exchange, Jason Bordoff talks to Bloomberg opinion columnist Javier Blas to recap the events of the past week and to discuss how oil and gas supply disruptions are reverberating across the industry.  Prior to joining Bloomberg in 2015, Javier held a number of roles at the Financial Times, including Africa editor and the commodities editor. He is also the co-author of The World for Sale: Money, Power and the Traders Who Barter the Earth's Resources. Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, Alice Manos, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.

The month-long Iran conflict has rapidly expanded, drawing in actors across the Middle East and raising concerns about broader regional escalation. As a result, we're seeing impacts on energy markets around the world, including across the Indo-Pacific.  Roughly 80% of the oil and gas flowing through the Gulf is destined for Asia, and disruptions are already being felt in major importing economies like Japan and South Korea, which remain heavily dependent on Middle Eastern supplies. But the consequences go beyond energy. The crisis is also adding a new layer of complexity to the U.S.-China relationship—reshaping how Beijing thinks about risk, security, and its role in an increasingly unstable global system. So how is China interpreting these developments? What do they mean for the Indo-Pacific—both in the near term and over a longer horizon? And how might China's approach to energy security, supply chains, and statecraft position it in a more volatile world? Today on the show, Jason Bordoff speaks with Kurt Campbell about what the current instability in the Gulf could mean for the Indo-Pacific. They also discuss an essay Kurt co-authored with Rush Doshi in Foreign Affairs, arguing for reorienting US diplomacy with China.    Kurt is the chairman of The Asia Group, which he co-founded in 2013. During the Biden Administration, he was deputy secretary of the United States Department of State. Before assuming his role at the State Department, Kurt served as the inaugural Indo-Pacific coordinator at the National Security Council and deputy assistant to the President at the White House. Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, Alice Manos, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.  

Nearly a month in, the conflict in Iran appears to have hit a critical inflection point. Over the weekend, President Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to open the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power infrastructure, which Iran credibly warned would trigger reciprocal attacks on GCC energy infrastructure. President Trump then postponed those strikes after what the administration described as productive talks with Iran on ending the conflict—talks that Iran denied are happening.  Meanwhile, a supply shock of historic proportions is unfolding. Some 16% of world oil supply has been disrupted, more than double the volume disrupted during the 1970s oil shock. And a fifth of world LNG supply has been shut in, affecting 50% more volume than the 2022 Russian gas crisis. The world's largest release of strategic oil inventories will buy weeks but not months for most advanced economies.  In this episode of the Iran Conflict Brief, host Daniel Sternoff speaks with Greg Sharenow about how the energy shocks are reshaping the investment landscape. Greg leads the commodity portfolio management group at asset management firm PIMCO. He co-manages PIMCO's Energy and Tactical Credit Opportunities strategies. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2011, he traded energy at Hess Energy Trading, Goldman Sachs, and D.E. Shaw.  Credits: Hosted by Daniel Sternoff. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, Alice Manos, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.

As the conflict in ​the Middle East enters its 20th day, events on the ground have shifted into a critical new phase marked by direct strikes on core​ energy infrastructure. With the Strait of Hormuz closed for three weeks, effectively bottling up nearly a fifth of the world's oil and LNG supply, recent escalations have turned the crisis from energy flow disruptions to potentially long-term physical damage.  Following Israeli strikes on the South Pars gas field in Iran, retaliatory attacks hit Qatar's Ras Laffan—the world's largest LNG plant—and key energy assets across the UAE, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Crude oil and natural gas prices have surged, signaling a shrinking toolkit for policymakers struggling to contain price volatility. In this episode of the Iran Conflict Brief, host Daniel Sternoff ​t​alks with Anne-Sophie Corbeau to analyze the impact of these infrastructure attacks on global LNG supplies and energy security.  They discuss the extent of the damage to Qatari and Iranian production facilities and the intensifying pressure on global markets. They also discuss the possibilities, and reverberations, to a scenario where this leads Europe to a return to Russian gas. Anne-Sophie is a global research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy and a leading authority on the intersection of geopolitics and natural gas. Credits: Hosted by Daniel Sternoff. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.

The climate policy landscape in the US is in flux. Last month, the Environmental Protection Agency repealed its own power to regulate greenhouse gases. Two weeks later, the Supreme Court said it will hear a case which the city of Boulder, Colorado, brought against the oil companies ExxonMobil and Suncor that could determine the fate of lawsuits brought by cities and states against fossil fuel companies over damages from climate change.  Since its adoption in 2009, EPA's endangerment finding — which says that greenhouse gases harm public health and welfare — had formed the legal foundation for major federal climate regulations. In announcing its rescission, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin called it the largest single deregulatory event in US history. But the repeal may be held up in courts for years, and it's just one piece of a complicated regulatory puzzle.  Petitions for review challenging the EPA's rescission of the endangerment finding are due in just over a month. So how might these major policy swings play out in practical terms? What are the near- and long-term stakes at the federal and state levels? What are the reactions from and the preferences of industry? And how might all of this play out in terms of US greenhouse gas emissions? Today on the show, Bill Loveless speaks with Michael Gerrard and Jeff Holmstead about possible legal strategies and outcomes for challenges to both the endangerment finding rescission and the Boulder case. Michael is the founder and faculty director of the Columbia University Sabin Center for Climate Change Law. Before joining Columbia in 2009, he practiced environmental law in New York for three decades. Jeff is a partner and co-chair of the Environmental Strategies Group at Bracewell, LLP, an international law firm. From 2001 to 2005, he served as the assistant administrator for air and radiation in the EPA during the administration of President George W. Bush.  Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.  

As the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran enters its third week, the complexities of the global energy landscape are deepening by the hour. Shut-ins of Middle Eastern upstream oil production are now approaching 10 million barrels per day, 20% of the world's liquefied natural gas remains shuttered, and the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to normal maritime traffic. And while a historic 400-million-barrel release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve helped blunt oil prices from rising further over a hundred dollars per barrel, flow rate limitations mean such stockpiles may only meet one fifth of the ongoing daily disruptions. In this episode of the Iran Conflict Brief, host Daniel Sternoff sits down with Richard Nephew to give an update on the latest events in Iran. They provide an analysis of the ongoing military strikes, including the recent US targeting of Kharg Island and Iran's retaliation against the UAE's Fujairah port. Richard is a senior research scholar at the Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy and the author of The Art of Sanctions. Over the past two decades, he has held a range of senior roles in the US government, including deputy special envoy for Iran, principal deputy coordinator for sanctions policy at the Department of State, and director for Iran at the National Security Council. Credits: Hosted by Daniel Sternoff. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.

In energy markets, all eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz. As of March 11, 2026, this vital passage is effectively closed to tanker traffic, stranding almost a fifth of world supplies of crude oil, oil products, and liquefied natural gas.  Yesterday, oil prices retreated sharply on a tweet from US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, claiming that the US Navy had escorted a tanker through Hormuz. That tweet was retracted, and was followed by reports that US intelligence had detected signs Iran had begun placing mines in the Strait.  To help sort through the quickly-changing events in the Middle East and dig into how they impact energy security, we are launching a new, limited series of the Columbia Energy Exchange podcast: the Iran Conflict Brief. To kick off the series, Daniel Sternoff, a senior fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy, speaks with Mike Knights about what needs to happen in order for oil and gas flows to resume through the Strait of Hormuz. Mike is an expert on Gulf and Middle East security and leads research at Horizon Engage, a strategic advisory firm. For over 20 years he has advised operators and investors in the region of political and security risks. He is also an adjunct fellow at the Washington Institute for NearEast Policy, where he co-founded the Militia Spotlight, focused on Iran-backed proxies. Credits: Hosted by Daniel Sternoff. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc