WTT: When the Benchmark Becomes a Bet

Kieran Goodwin is a Partner at Saba Capital, a $6 billion hedge fund manager that seeks to identify dislocations in credit and equity markets to generate convex returns in volatile times. Kieran has been one of the top credit traders on the Street for the last three decades across roles at investment banks in the '90s and early 00's, King Street, his own hedge fund, Panning Capital, and most recently, Saba that he joined in 2024.  Our conversation covers a tour of Kieran's background, including early experience with credit derivatives, growth at King Street, lifespan of Panning, downtime between stints, and re-engagement with Boaz Weinstein at Saba. We then turn to risks in the private credit market, including its rapid growth, asset-liability mismatches, pricing marks, leverage, liquidity, default risk, and the potential for reflexive problems. Kieran shares how managers should navigate the environment and how he is positioning Saba to benefit.   Learn more about our Strategic Investments: Thema. Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership   Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)

Jeremy Grantham is the Co-Founder of GMO, a $100 billion Boston-based asset management firm co-founded in 1977. Over six decades in markets, Jeremy has been one of the most respected and outspoken voices on value, market bubbles, and long-term investing. He recently published The Making of a Permabear with Edward Chancellor, an account of his career and investment lessons learned along the way. Our conversation begins with Jeremy's early lessons in frugality growing up in wartime Yorkshire and his interest in numbers and investing. We trace his career through the founding of Batterymarch and GMO, the golden period of value, painful lessons of the dot-com bubble, and the challenges since. We cover Jeremy's framework for identifying and navigating market bubbles, career risk, and the current AI investment boom, and close with his essential philanthropic work to change the trajectory of the environment alongside the investment strategy he deploys in his Foundation. Learn more about our Strategic Investments: OWL.   Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership     Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)

Throughout most of my career, the S&P 500 has been an appropriate bogey to assess manager performance. More than that, it's the most widely used benchmark in the capital markets. But today, it doesn't represent the broad-based, diversified exposure to the U.S. economy that most participants take for granted when investing passively or measuring manager skill. This WTT, When the Benchmark Becomes a Bet, considers the evidence, implications, and challenges posed by the current composition of the S&P 500. Read Ted's blog here.   Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)

Will Guidara is the author of Unreasonable Hospitality and the soon to release Unreasonable Hospitality: The Field Guide. Unreasonable Hospitality has become a New York Times bestseller and a business bible for elevating customer experiences. Will was co-owner of Eleven Madison Park alongside Danny Meyer when the restaurant ascended to #1 in the world, the co-producer of Emmy Award-winning streaming series The Bear, host of the Welcome Conference, and advisor to business leaders ranging from professional sports to financial services on the delivery of hospitality as a primary business strategy. Our conversation explores the operating principles of "unreasonable hospitality" across the identification and enhancement of customer experiences. Will describes operationalizing exceptional service, finding magic in repeated touchpoints, building teams that embrace hospitality, and leading others through vulnerability. Once in a while, I share a conversation outside of managers or allocators designed to help you level-up your performance and business. From the day I met Will several years ago, I knew he could do just that from his valuable insights and colorful stories.   Learn more about our Strategic Investments: Ascension.   Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership     Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)

Ryan Lovell is the Director of Capital Markets at Chainlink Labs, where he leads the development of blockchain-based solutions for tokenized finance across banking and capital markets. Chainlink has powered more than $28 trillion in transaction value and powers the majority of decentralized finance. Our conversation explores the hidden plumbing of modern finance and the upgrade blockchains provide. We discuss Chainlink's critical role in connecting traditional finance with blockchain technology, the rise of tokenization and stablecoins, institutional adoption, and the intersection of AI and blockchains around a single source of truth for financial transactions.   Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership   Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)

Katelin Holloway is a Founding Partner at Seven Seven Six, a technology-focused venture firm backing great early-stage entrepreneurs that she started with Alexis Ohanian in 2020. Alexis was a past guest on the show, and that conversation is replayed in the feed. Katelin and I explore the intersection of human capital and venture capital. We cover her upbringing, work alongside Steve Jobs at Pixar, and turnaround of Reddit with Alexis. We then turn to the application of her operational experience to venture investing. We discuss 776's sourcing and underwriting of founders, interviewing approach, investment selection, and scaling the highly personal approach it takes to add value to portfolio companies. Learn more about our Strategic Investments: Old Well Labs.   Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership   Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)

Alexis Ohanian is the General Partner and Founder of Seven Seven Six, an early-stage venture capital firm with $1 billion under management that he describes as a technology company that deploys venture capital. Alexis was the co-founder of Reddit, one of the most popular online forums in the world, which he sold 18 months after its 2005 launch for $10 million and returned as Executive Chair in 2014 to help lead the turnaround of the business. In between and since, he has invested in early-stage ventures as a partner at Y Combinator, a co-founder of Initialized Capital, and most recently founder of 776. Despite his success in entrepreneurship and investing, Alexis is most well known in the world at large as the husband of tennis star Serena Williams. Our conversation covers Alexis' initial ride at Reddit, taste of early-stage venture capital, and return to Reddit to scale the business alongside the challenges of managing a modern social media platform. We then turn to his investing as a technology company, including Cerebro – 776's transparent operating system, thematic ideas, traits of successful founders, social media engagement, investments in women's sports, and lessons learned from his wife Serena.   Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership   Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)

Gavin Baker is the Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer of Atreides Management, which oversees $7 billion across public, private, and crossover strategies focused on technology and the consumer. Gavin's deep knowledge of semiconductors and AI may be second to none, but our conversation barely touches the space. We begin with Gavin's upbringing, intellectual curiosity, and path to investing, before turning to the beliefs that shape his approach. We explore his view that investing is a search for truth best pursued through debate, intellectual honesty, and a willingness to be wrong, and why people, culture, execution, and risk management matter more than investment process in driving long-term performance. We then turn to the application of those beliefs at Atreides, where Gavin emphasizes the importance of deep fundamental understanding, hypothesis-driven research, and culture that rewards constructive disagreement. We discuss how crossover investing can create informational and behavioral advantages - particularly in AI - and how portfolio construction in both hedge funds and venture capital can narrow the gap between insight and performance. As a disclaimer, I am both an LP and an advisor to Atreides, so I'm a little biased in my suspicion that you will really enjoy this conversation with Gavin Baker. Learn more about our Strategic Investments: Thema.   Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠) All opinions expressed by Ted and podcast guests are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Capital Allocators or their firms. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions. It should not be construed as investment advice or a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offering of any kind. Clients of Capital Allocators or podcast guests may maintain positions and securities discussed on this podcast. The statements and opinions contained herein may change at any time, based on market or other conditions.

Today's show dives into the state of the venture capital from the LP perspective.     Sean Warrington is a Partner on the Private Investments team at Gresham Partners, a $13 billion multifamily office, and Ed Grefenstette is the CEO and CIO of The Dietrich Foundation, a $1.6 billion foundation with an unusually large allocation to private markets and venture capital. Ed was a past guest on the show and that conversation is replayed in the feed.    Our conversation covers the changing landscape of venture capital, including pricing distortions, power law winners, liquidity issues, GP behavior, and scaled platforms. Throughout the insightful conversation, Ed and Sean share LP strategies to capture opportunities and navigate risks across stages, sectors –mostly AI – and geographies.      Learn more about our Strategic Investments: Old Well Labs.   Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership   Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)

Ed Grefenstette is the CIO of The Dietrich Foundation, which supports charitable organizations in Western Pennsylvania through a truly unique investment strategy that seeks to first, last, and always grow the assets. Bill Dietrich, a successful industrialist, published historian, international investor, and innovative philanthropist, formed the foundation after selling his business for $170 million in 1997. Since then, the pool has grown 11.5x to $1.5 billion after distributing $400 million to supported charities, including contributions that make it among the largest donors every year to Carnegie Mellon University and the University of Pittsburgh. Over the last twenty years, the Dietrich Foundation's performance sits at the very top of all endowments and foundations.   Our conversation covers Ed's journey to investing and mentorship by Bill Dietrich, which led to him taking the helm at the Foundation in 2007. We discuss the Foundation's bold approach to illiquid investments, with 90% of assets invested in venture capital and private equity, its governance structure, and its thematic focus on innovation and emerging markets. Along the way, Ed shares insights into managing liquidity, constructing the portfolio, selecting managers, and navigating geopolitical risk to maintain conviction in an uncomfortably different strategy.   Ed's approach and results will open your aperture to what's possible in an institutional portfolio with the right goals, structure, and governance in place.   Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)