Markets Weekly podcast (09 June 2025): Mid-year outlook

The first half of the year has been volatile in currency markets, driven by President Trump’s tariff policy and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. In the US, the impact of tariffs on growth has caused the US dollar to weaken against the euro, sterling and the Swiss franc. In this week’s podcast, Bhaskar Gupta, Head of FX Distribution in the UK, joins Julien Lafargue to discuss what investors could expect from currency markets for the rest of the year.

Despite AI breakthroughs becoming more incremental, AI development and investment remain strong. While many models may perform well in narrow tasks, they can still struggle with practical reliability, which might limit commercial adoption in the near term. In this week’s podcast, Rob Smith, Data Scientist, joins Julien Lafargue to discuss the latest developments in this evolving technology.

As periods of elevated volatility in bond markets remain likely in the second half of the year, we explore how investors might navigate the ongoing uncertainty. Michel Vernier, Head of Fixed Income Strategy, and Aleks Devic, Fixed Income Specialist, join Julien Lafargue to discuss the expected future path of US and UK interest rates, the potential impact of the Middle East conflict, and where value may lie in the credit market.

As we approach the mid-point of the year, we take a moment to reflect on events, and consider what the next six months may entail for investors. Alex Joshi, Head of Behavioural Finance, joins Julien Lafargue to discuss our flagship Mid-Year Outlook report and consider how investors can more confidently navigate the trends which are expected to shape the rest of 2025.

As market volatility continues to weigh on investor sentiment, this week’s podcast explores the potential benefits and risks of hedge funds. Pierre-Emmanuel Crama, Senior Hedge Fund Analyst, and Oliver Knox, Hedge Fund Analyst, join host Julien Lafargue to discuss how effective manager selection can help reduce risks, what’s involved in a good manager selection process, and the role private banks can play in improving the accessibility of the asset class for investors.

As the US dollar struggles, sterling and the Swiss franc have gone from strength to strength. In this week’s podcast, Bhaskar Gupta, Head of FX Distribution in the UK, joins host Julien Lafargue to consider what’s next for the US dollar, reflect on the sustainability of sterling’s strength, and explore how the Swiss franc’s rising value may impact its economy.

At times of rising geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, a long-term view remains essential. In this week’s podcast, Nikola Vasiljevic, Head of Global Asset Allocation, joins host Julien Lafargue to look beyond the market noise to consider the outlook for the major asset classes over the next ten years.

This week’s podcast reflects on the recent market turmoil and what it could mean for the UK property market. Stephen Moroukian, our real estate financing specialist, joins host Julien Lafargue to discuss the outlook for interest rates and the health of the London prime property market.

This week’s podcast focuses on the bond market reaction to trade tariff uncertainty. Michel Vernier, Head of Fixed Income Strategy, joins host Julien Lafargue to discuss the likely impact of tariffs on consumers and corporates, the latest US Federal Reserve interest rate projections and the probability of a US recession and much more besides.

With elevated market volatility, this week’s podcast focuses on how investors can retain perspective despite the challenging environment. Listen in as Alex Joshi, Head of Behavioural Finance, joins host Julien Lafargue to discuss how markets can magnify behavioural biases and why it’s important for investors not to make any knee-jerk decisions.