Special - Iran War: Strait of Hormuz, Regional Escalation, Casualty Figures (Preview)

Subscribe now for the full episode. Danny and Derek speak with Sam Biddle of The Intercept about the role of AI in modern warfare, including the current Iran conflict. They talk about Palantir’s Maven system, LLMs in target selection, the use of Claude in airstrike planning, the integration of drone, satellite, and intelligence data, the acceleration of targeting and strike decisions, large-scale target lists, risks from outdated or misinterpreted intelligence, the limits of human review in the kill chain, and the absence of meaningful guardrails on this technology. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Subscribe now for the full episode and access to all of our specials. Danny and Derek give an update on the conflict in Iran. They talk about the overall state of the war, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, casualty figures across multiple countries, the prospect of a ground invasion, the state of Iran’s leadership, the strike on South Pars and its effects on Gulf energy infrastructure, Iran’s attacks on Israel, Israeli public support for the war, and polling on American support for the intervention. Watch our video exclusive with Samuel Moyn about Jürgen Habermas. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Subscribe now to skip the ads and get all of our episodes. Derek wore his Fitbit to a CIA black site, both exposing the security state and meeting his daily step goal. This week’s news: in the Iran war, Israel assassinates Ali Larijani and other senior Iranian officials (1:15), U.S. allies refuse Trump’s demand that they help reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force (5:41), and the Pentagon seeks roughly $200 billion for the war (8:32) as it considers new deployments to the region (13:27); in southern Lebanon, the IDF begins its ground invasion (14:41); Israel continues killing people in Gaza during the supposed ceasefire while Rafah reopens for medical evacuations after pressure from Hamas (17:31); Afghanistan and Pakistan agree to a five-day Eid ceasefire (21:30) as the two countries dispute the circumstances Pakistani airstrike in Kabul (22:57); Trump postpones his planned trip to China as the Iran war consumes Washington’s attention (25:22); in Sudan, the RSF retakes the strategic town of Bara (27:39); the Trump administration reportedly threatens to cut PEPFAR and other health aid to Zambia unless it gets favorable mineral concessions (29:37); Russia increases its support for Tehran with drone tactics, technology, and possible intelligence sharing (33:45); the United States reopens its embassy in Venezuela as normalization moves ahead (37:11), plus Delcy Rodríguez replaces Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino with intelligence chief Gustavo González López (38:21); and Trump pressures Cuba’s leadership amid a grid collapse and reports of U.S. talks about political change (40:24).  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Subscribe now to get all of our special episodes and skip the ads. Danny and Derek welcome back to the show Annelle Sheline to discuss the impact of the US–Israel war on Iran on the Gulf states. They talk about how the conflict developed and why Gulf governments anticipated Iranian retaliation, the limits of US security guarantees, the risks to energy and desalination infrastructure, the vulnerability of the Gulf’s economic model relying on stability and foreign investment, and the potential postwar regional order if Iran survives weakened but intact. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Subscribe now to skip the ads and get all of our episodes! Writer and former U.S. Army intelligence officer Harrison Mann joins the show to talk about the U.S–Iran war and what a ground invasion could actually look like. They discuss Harrison’s resignation from the Defense Intelligence Agency over U.S. support for the Gaza genocide, his assessment of the first weeks of the conflict with Iran, internal divisions within the military and intelligence community, and the risks of shifting the rules of engagement and permissive attitudes toward civilian casualties. They then explore potential ground invasion scenarios, including special raids on nuclear facilities, the proposal to seize Kharg Island, the feasibility of occupying territory along the Strait of Hormuz, and the broader trajectory of the conflict. Read Harrison’s piece “I Was a US Intelligence Analyst. Here's What a Ground Invasion of Iran Could Look Like.” Sign Win Without War's petition to Congress against spending more taxpayer dollars on the Iran war via an upcoming supplemental funding bill. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Subscribe now for the full episode and access to all of our specials. Danny and Derek discuss the latest developments in the war in Iran, including the U.S. bombing military targets on Kharg Island; Iran’s retaliation in the UAE and strategy around the Strait of Hormuz; the status of Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei after reportedly sustaining wounds; Israel’s possible plan to occupy southern Lebanon and reports of interceptor shortages; China’s muted response to the war; and the U.S. deploying Marines to the region. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Subscribe now for the full episode and all of our bonus content. Danny and Derek welcome to the podcast political scientist Robert Pape to talk about the theory and history of air power. They discuss how ideas of air superiority shaped modern military doctrine and the belief that air power alone can coerce or topple regimes. They then focus on the war with Iran, including the U.S. strategy falling into the “smart bomb trap,” Iran’s strategy of horizontal escalation, the use of precision drones, the risks surrounding dispersed nuclear material, and the potential economic and geopolitical shocks as the conflict expands. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Subscribe now to get access to all of our special episodes. Danny and Derek speak with Spencer Ackerman, writer of ⁠Forever Wars⁠ newsletter and author of ⁠Reign of Terror: How the 9/11 Era Destabilized America⁠ about the war in Iran, how it emerges from recent history, its military aspects, and much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Subscribe now to skip the ads and get all of our breaking news specials. We’re putting out, what, an episode a day at this point? But the news roundup must go on. This week: In the Iran war, casualty and displacement figures rise across Iran and Lebanon (1:20), Iran mines and threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz (4:31), Iranian officials threaten to expand the war by targeting financial institutions across the Gulf (7:47), and new supreme leader Mustafa Khomeini delivers his first address (10:27); in Gaza, aid shortages deepen as food supplies run low (16:01); escalating drone warfare hits markets, towns, and civilian targets in Sudan (17:19); in Mali, the U.S. moves to restore counterterrorism cooperation and reconnaissance flights with the ruling junta (22:20); new warnings of conflict emerge in Ethiopia’s Tigray region (24:51); Nepal’s Rastriya Swatantra Party secures a landslide victory in the latest elections (28:26); in Ukraine, the UN accuses Russia of committing a crime against humanity through the forced transfer of Ukrainian children (30:07); far-right politician José Antonio Kast takes office as president of Chile following the end of Gabriel Boric’s term (31:31); in Haiti, human rights groups warn about civilian harm from an expanding drone campaign targeting gangs in Port-au-Prince (34:05); and in these United States, investigations into the Minab elementary school strike raise questions about the use of AI-assisted targeting in U.S. military operations (35:41), plus Donald Trump hosts the first “Shield of the Americas” summit at his Doral resort (39:44). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Danny and Derek speak with Spencer Ackerman, writer of ⁠Forever Wars⁠ newsletter and author of ⁠Reign of Terror: How the 9/11 Era Destabilized America⁠ about the war in Iran, how it emerges from recent history, its military aspects, and much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices