1929 vs 2025: Andrew Ross Sorkin on Crashes, Bubbles & Lessons Learned

(0:00) Chamath and Friedberg welcome Andrew Ross Sorkin to discuss his new book, "1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History--and How It Shattered a Nation" (0:38) Why he chose this time period (3:22) The setup: what led to the 1929 crash (19:24) The characters: major players in the 1929 crash; what kind of bubble are we experiencing in 2025? (26:21) Role of journalist vs market participant; characters of the 2025 market (30:10) AI's potential 1929-like impact on unemployment (35:16) Why socialism is flaring up now more than it did post-1929 (40:34) Does the US need a 2025 "New Deal" on cutting spending, tariff balancing act (46:51) Film rights strategy Buy Sorkin's new book: https://www.amazon.com/1929-Inside-Greatest-History-Shattered/dp/0593296966 Follow Andrew Ross Sorkin: https://x.com/andrewrsorkin Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.amazon.com/1929-Inside-Greatest-History-Shattered/dp/0593296966 https://archive.org/details/sim_ladies-home-journal_1929-08_46_8/page/n9/mode/2up

(0:00) Introducing Orlando Bravo (1:53) Orlando’s history, Puerto Rico origins, how he got into private equity (7:10) How he runs Thoma Bravo: small team, outward facing, mentorship, patience in fundraising (9:01) Role of PE in the American economy, public perception, underwriting AI risks (15:23) Deal pricing philosophy, acquiring Boeing’s avionics business (19:24) Thoma Bravo’s operating playbook after acquiring a company (26:16) Thoughts on taking Thoma Bravo public Thanks to our partners for making this happen! Solana - Solana is the high performance network powering internet capital markets, payments, and crypto applications. Connect with investors, crypto founders, and entrepreneurs at Solana’s global flagship event during Abu Dhabi Finance Week & F1: https://solana.com/breakpoint OKX - The new way to build your crypto portfolio and use it in daily life. We call it the new money app. https://www.okx.com/ Google Cloud - The next generation of unicorns is building on Google Cloud's industry-leading, fully integrated AI stack: infrastructure, platform, models, agents, and data. https://cloud.google.com/ IREN - IREN AI Cloud, powered by NVIDIA GPUs, provides the scale, performance, and reliability to accelerate your AI journey. https://iren.com/ Oracle - Step into the future of enterprise productivity at Oracle AI Experience Live. https://www.oracle.com/artificial-intelligence/data-ai-events/ Circle - The America-based company behind USDC — a fully-reserved, enterprise-grade stablecoin at the core of the emerging internet financial system. https://www.circle.com/ BVNK - Building stablecoin-powered financial infrastructure that helps businesses send, store, and spend value instantly, anywhere in the world. https://www.bvnk.com/ Polymarket - The world’s largest prediction market. https://www.polymarket.com/ Follow Orlando Bravo: https://x.com/orlandobravotb Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg

(0:00) Introducing Bryan Johnson (0:46) Bryan takes the audience through a quick biological age test (5:53) The single best longevity hack from all of his research Thanks to our partners for making this happen! Solana - Solana is the high performance network powering internet capital markets, payments, and crypto applications. Connect with investors, crypto founders, and entrepreneurs at Solana’s global flagship event during Abu Dhabi Finance Week & F1: https://solana.com/breakpoint OKX - The new way to build your crypto portfolio and use it in daily life. We call it the new money app. https://www.okx.com/ Google Cloud - The next generation of unicorns is building on Google Cloud's industry-leading, fully integrated AI stack: infrastructure, platform, models, agents, and data. https://cloud.google.com/ IREN - IREN AI Cloud, powered by NVIDIA GPUs, provides the scale, performance, and reliability to accelerate your AI journey. https://iren.com/ Oracle - Step into the future of enterprise productivity at Oracle AI Experience Live. https://www.oracle.com/artificial-intelligence/data-ai-events/ Circle - The America-based company behind USDC — a fully-reserved, enterprise-grade stablecoin at the core of the emerging internet financial system. https://www.circle.com/ BVNK - Building stablecoin-powered financial infrastructure that helps businesses send, store, and spend value instantly, anywhere in the world. https://www.bvnk.com/ Polymarket - The world’s largest prediction market. https://www.polymarket.com/ Follow Bryan Johnson: https://x.com/bryan_johnson Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg

(0:00) Introducing Cathie Wood (0:47) Cathie Wood on AI’s once in a lifetime opportunity: doubling GDP, deflation, and more (9:23) Cathie’s bull case for Bitcoin $1M (11:38) Opening up access to innovation for retail (14:32) Cathie explains Ark’s strategies for bull and bear markets (16:01) Thoughts on Elon’s trillion-dollar pay package Thanks to our partners for making this happen! Solana - Solana is the high performance network powering internet capital markets, payments, and crypto applications. Connect with investors, crypto founders, and entrepreneurs at Solana’s global flagship event during Abu Dhabi Finance Week & F1: https://solana.com/breakpoint OKX - The new way to build your crypto portfolio and use it in daily life. We call it the new money app. https://www.okx.com/ Google Cloud - The next generation of unicorns is building on Google Cloud's industry-leading, fully integrated AI stack: infrastructure, platform, models, agents, and data. https://cloud.google.com/ IREN - IREN AI Cloud, powered by NVIDIA GPUs, provides the scale, performance, and reliability to accelerate your AI journey. https://iren.com/ Oracle - Step into the future of enterprise productivity at Oracle AI Experience Live. https://www.oracle.com/artificial-intelligence/data-ai-events/ Circle - The America-based company behind USDC — a fully-reserved, enterprise-grade stablecoin at the core of the emerging internet financial system. https://www.circle.com/ BVNK - Building stablecoin-powered financial infrastructure that helps businesses send, store, and spend value instantly, anywhere in the world. https://www.bvnk.com/ Polymarket - The world’s largest prediction market. https://www.polymarket.com/ Follow Cathie Wood: https://x.com/cathiedwood Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg

(0:00) Bestie intros: Welcome back Brad Gerstner! (2:48) Israel-Hamas ceasefire, how Trump and his team got the deal done (13:27) National Guard sent to Chicago to protect ICE Agents (44:02) OpenAI's deal with AMD, state of the "AI Bubble" (1:05:45) Circular AI deals: cause for concern or no big deal? (1:15:00) What's behind the Gold rally? (1:20:38) Polymarket receives $2B investment from NYSE owner ICE, future of prediction markets Follow Brad: https://x.com/altcap Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115340993884364431 https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1972726021196562494 https://x.com/JasonJournoDC/status/1976080696209760487 https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2005/05/23/israels-lawyer/7ab0416c-9761-4d4a-80a9-82b7e15e5d22 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/10/09/gaza-ceasefire-deal-trump-nobel-prize https://x.com/BillAckman/status/1976307397099471229 https://polymarket.com/event/will-hamas-release-all-israeli-hostages-by-october-31?tid=1760021581013 https://www.newsweek.com/ice-rappel-black-hawk-helicopters-chicago-10809228 https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/depts/mayor/press_room/press_releases/2025/october/city-property-executive-order.html https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/10/chicago-mayors-ice-free-zones-shield-violent-criminal-illegals-abandon-citizens https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1965294885373947928 https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1972716966831120601 https://x.com/unlimited_ls/status/1975302286969631204 https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-approval-rating-boost-cities-crime-crackdown-10840101 https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2025/08/20/dc-poll-trump-crime-police/ https://marylandmatters.org/2025/09/05/moore-orders-state-police-to-assist-baltimore-cops-in-crime-reduction-efforts https://www.politico.com/newsletters/west-wing-playbook-remaking-government/2025/04/28/musk-and-doge-have-a-poll-problem-00313461 https://x.com/wallstreetapes/status/1976030014614421936 https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1976020869752508907 https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-amd-deal-ai-chips-ed92cc42 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tether-gold-xaut-hits-1b-080222337.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/07/nyse-owner-intercontinental-exchange-2-billion-polymarket-stake.html https://polymarket.com/event/will-polymarket-us-go-live-in-2025?tid=1760113275545

(0:00) Introducing Roelof Botha (1:08) Sequoia’s Scout program and its best-performing funds ever (3:38) State of Venture Capital: Why it’s broken, too much capital, not enough great companies (9:01) Why Sequoia separated from its China business, how they adapt to changing macro landscapes (13:05) Sequoia’s culture, picking partners, investment decision-making, The Sequoia Capital Fund and holding winners (20:18) What makes a great founder, what Roelof learned from Doug Leone and Michael Moritz (26:06) Investing in biotech, importance of expertise in VC Thanks to our partners for making this happen! Solana - Solana is the high performance network powering internet capital markets, payments, and crypto applications. Connect with investors, crypto founders, and entrepreneurs at Solana’s global flagship event during Abu Dhabi Finance Week & F1: https://solana.com/breakpoint OKX - The new way to build your crypto portfolio and use it in daily life. We call it the new money app. https://www.okx.com/ Google Cloud - The next generation of unicorns is building on Google Cloud's industry-leading, fully integrated AI stack: infrastructure, platform, models, agents, and data. https://cloud.google.com/ IREN - IREN AI Cloud, powered by NVIDIA GPUs, provides the scale, performance, and reliability to accelerate your AI journey. https://iren.com/ Oracle - Step into the future of enterprise productivity at Oracle AI Experience Live. https://www.oracle.com/artificial-intelligence/data-ai-events/ Circle - The America-based company behind USDC — a fully-reserved, enterprise-grade stablecoin at the core of the emerging internet financial system. https://www.circle.com/ BVNK - Building stablecoin-powered financial infrastructure that helps businesses send, store, and spend value instantly, anywhere in the world. https://www.bvnk.com/ Polymarket - The world’s largest prediction market. https://www.polymarket.com/ Follow Roelof: https://x.com/roelofbotha Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg

(0:00) Introducing YouTube CEO Neal Mohan (1:08) YouTube’s revenue split with creators (7:30) How Neal thinks about enabling monoculture and connective threads at YouTube (11:23) Censorship on YouTube, demonetization decisions, dealing with different regimes and laws globally (19:58) YouTube TV, YouTube Premium, and channel subscriptions (24:00) Generative AI on YouTube: labeling AI, likeness concerns, possibilities Thanks to our partners for making this happen! Solana - Solana is the high performance network powering internet capital markets, payments, and crypto applications. Connect with investors, crypto founders, and entrepreneurs at Solana’s global flagship event during Abu Dhabi Finance Week & F1: https://solana.com/breakpoint OKX - The new way to build your crypto portfolio and use it in daily life. We call it the new money app. https://www.okx.com/ Google Cloud - The next generation of unicorns is building on Google Cloud's industry-leading, fully integrated AI stack: infrastructure, platform, models, agents, and data. https://cloud.google.com/ IREN - IREN AI Cloud, powered by NVIDIA GPUs, provides the scale, performance, and reliability to accelerate your AI journey. https://iren.com/ Oracle - Step into the future of enterprise productivity at Oracle AI Experience Live. https://www.oracle.com/artificial-intelligence/data-ai-events/ Circle - The America-based company behind USDC — a fully-reserved, enterprise-grade stablecoin at the core of the emerging internet financial system. https://www.circle.com/ BVNK - Building stablecoin-powered financial infrastructure that helps businesses send, store, and spend value instantly, anywhere in the world. https://www.bvnk.com/ Polymarket - https://www.polymarket.com/ Follow Neal: https://x.com/nealmohan Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg

(0:00) Introducing Joe Tsai (0:49) Owning the Nets and Liberty, Caitlin Clark’s impact on the WNBA, does the NBA need fixing? (6:07) Alibaba origins, China’s pullback on capitalism (10:10) US vs China rivalry: the AI race, are we destined for conflict, and what can the US learn from China? (19:46) AI application in large businesses (21:52) Managing corporate culture at Alibaba’s scale, Nets predictions (23:17) AI adoption, job anxiety, and AGI views in China Thanks to our partners for making this happen! Solana - Solana is the high performance network powering internet capital markets, payments, and crypto applications. Connect with investors, crypto founders, and entrepreneurs at Solana’s global flagship event during Abu Dhabi Finance Week & F1: https://solana.com/breakpoint OKX - The new way to build your crypto portfolio and use it in daily life. We call it the new money app. https://www.okx.com/ Google Cloud - The next generation of unicorns is building on Google Cloud's industry-leading, fully integrated AI stack: infrastructure, platform, models, agents, and data. https://cloud.google.com/ IREN - IREN AI Cloud, powered by NVIDIA GPUs, provides the scale, performance, and reliability to accelerate your AI journey. https://iren.com/ Oracle - Step into the future of enterprise productivity at Oracle AI Experience Live. https://www.oracle.com/artificial-intelligence/data-ai-events/ Circle - The America-based company behind USDC — a fully-reserved, enterprise-grade stablecoin at the core of the emerging internet financial system. https://www.circle.com/ BVNK - Building stablecoin-powered financial infrastructure that helps businesses send, store, and spend value instantly, anywhere in the world. https://www.bvnk.com/ Polymarket - https://www.polymarket.com/ Follow Joe Tsai: https://x.com/joetsai1999 Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg

(0:00) Bestie intros! (1:53) EA acquired for $55B in biggest LBO ever, why PE is in trouble (17:42) IPO market, SPAC 2.0 (27:41) The AI rollup opportunity (36:01) Sacks joins the show! (38:27) OpenAI and Meta launch short-form video apps: "AI Slop" or the future of content? (45:04) Open source AI: DeepSeek's new model, pressure on US AI industry (1:05:11) State AI regulation frenzy: States' rights vs Federal control, overregulation Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://apnews.com/article/ea-electronic-arts-video-game-silver-lake-pif-d17dc7dd3412a990d2c0a6758aaa6900 https://www.ign.com/articles/xbox-game-pass-ultimate-price-rises-to-30-a-month-microsoft-adds-more-day-one-games-and-throws-in-fortnite-crew-and-ubisoft-classics-to-help-justify-the-cost https://x.com/Jason/status/1973461806585966655 https://www.npr.org/2025/09/05/nx-s1-5529404/anthropic-settlement-authors-copyright-ai https://x.com/scaling01/status/1972650237266465214 https://www.insidetechlaw.com/blog/2025/09/californias-transparency-in-frontier-artificial-intelligence-act https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/google-withdraws-rezoning-proposal-for-468-acre-data-center-project-in-franklin-township-indianapolis

(0:00) Chamath and Jason welcome Rep. Ro Khanna! (1:10) H-1Bs and immigration (8:40) Giving Trump credit as a Progressive Democrat, why bipartisanship is broken, future Democratic leaders (15:08) Tech industry: Can Democrats win back tech?; Economic patriotism, protection vs proliferation of AI (24:25) Government shutdown, what actually happens? (30:25) Extreme rhetoric: Importance of dialing this down (36:29) Censorship and lawfare on both sides (40:32) Crime issues in major cities, why Democrats are losing on safety, common sense solutions (47:46) Mamdani's surge: is Zohran the future of the party? (51:15) Congressional stock trading ban Follow Ro Khanna: https://x.com/rokhanna Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect