Trump, China and the New Power Politics in Asia

Chinese exports are booming—but ties with the U.S. are collapsing. Across Asia, from Beijing to Manila, Washington’s shifting strategy under Trump is reshaping alliances and testing security guarantees that have underpinned the region for decades. Eric speaks with James Crabtree, a distinguished visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and the Asia Society, about how Asia’s leaders are adapting to a world in flux: China’s mix of confidence and anxiety amid its own economic slowdown How Trump’s erratic policy is breaking apart the anti-China coalition Growing doubts in Tokyo, Seoul, and Manila about U.S. security guarantees Taiwan’s precarious position and fears of being left alone Vietnam’s balancing act between U.S. tariffs and China’s dominance Why India is quietly building backup plans with Europe JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

For centuries, the United States was the undisputed hegemonic power across the Western Hemisphere; however, that is no longer the case today. China is now the largest trading partner for the majority of countries in Latin America and is quickly filling the void left by a decades-long U.S. retrenchment. In his new book, "Economic Displacement: China and the End of U.S. Primacy in Latin America," Francisco Urdinez, an assistant professor at the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, argues that U.S. neglect of the region has created a critical opening for China to expand both its economic and political influence in the Americas. Francisco joins Eric from Santiago to discuss the future of the U.S.-China rivalry in Latin America. SHOW NOTES: Purchase a copy of "Economic Displacement: China and the End of U.S. Primacy in Latin America" and receive a 20% discount through October 31, 2026, by entering the code ECDT25 at checkout: www.cambridge.org/9781009672269 JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

In the weeks since Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the new Global Governance Initiative (GGI) during a speech at the SCO summit in Tianjin, Beijing's propaganda apparatus has been working overtime to build support for the new plan, particularly in Africa, Latin America, and other developing regions. The GGI is the latest in a series of Chinese global initiatives that also focus on development, human rights, and security, which it's using to stake a larger claim for international leadership at a time when the U.S.-led system is collapsing. Brian Wong, an assistant professor at Hong Kong University and a leading scholar on Chinese global governance, joins Eric to discuss what Beijing is hoping to accomplish with the GGI and its other governance initiatives. SHOW NOTES: Routledge: Moral Debt: Defending a New Account of Reparative Justice by Brian Wong Hong Kong University Press: Towards a Future for BRICS+ edited by Heiwai Tang and Brian Wong  JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

It wasn't that long ago when the leaders from India and China couldn't even look at each other when they were in the same room. Today, the situation is very different. Ties between the two Asian powers have improved dramatically from a few years ago, when a violent conflict along their disputed border sent relations into a deep freeze. But even though China and India have resolved a number of their differences in recent years, serious problems persist, none more so than their disputed border that remains one of the most heavily armed frontiers in the world. Professor Jabin Jacob, associate professor at the Shiv Nadar Institute of Eminence and one of India's foremost China scholars, joins Eric to discuss why resolving the border dispute, in particular, is going to be very difficult. JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

China’s economic ties with Brazil are booming, and 2024 saw a stunning 113% jump in Chinese investment, totaling $4.2 billion across 39 projects, the highest number ever, according to a new report by the Brazil-China Business Council. From renewable energy and oil to mining and automotive manufacturing, Chinese companies are pouring capital into Brazil’s economy. This investment boom, though, comes at a sensitive time as China is moving aggressively to reduce its reliance on the U.S., particularly in the food sector. Tulio Cariello, the Council's director of content and research, joins Eric to explain what's driving the surge of Chinese FDI in Brazil and whether this upswing is expected to continue. JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth  

The reset between India and China appears to be holding. Nearly two weeks after President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi met on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Tianjin, five years of frigid ties between the two Asian powers are steadily thawing.  However, it will take more than summits and statements to rebuild trust, particularly among Indian policymakers who remain wary of China's close ties with Pakistan and Beijing's broader ambitions across South Asia. Constantino Xavier, a senior fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress in New Delhi and co-author of an in-depth report on Chinese engagement in South Asia, joins Eric to discuss how Modi aims to balance ties with China, the U.S. and Russia while preserving India's legendary non-alignment strategy. JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

Two sharply contrasting foreign policy visions emerged this week from China and the United States. In Beijing, President Xi Jinping outlined an agenda in talks with fellow BRICS leaders that directly challenged Donald Trump’s “America First” doctrine, urging instead for stronger multilateral cooperation. Meanwhile in Washington, reports surfaced of a potential overhaul in U.S. security strategy, shifting the Pentagon’s focus away from countering China abroad toward reinforcing defenses at home and across the Western Hemisphere. No other region around the world has as much at stake in this duel as Southeast Asia, effectively the frontline in the simmering great power rivalry. Dylan Loh, an associate professor at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore and a leading expert on Chinese foreign policy, joins Eric to discuss how Southeast Asian policymakers are responding to the mounting pressure coming from both Washington and Beijing. JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

While most of the world's attention at this week's Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin was on Xi Jinping's meetings with leaders from the big powers, namely India and Russia, the Chinese President also spent considerable time with heads of state from many of the world's smallest countries, like the Maldives and Nepal, among others. This is part of China's longstanding small-state diplomacy strategy, where Beijing cultivates relationships with these countries in the Global South through high-level gatherings and the same diplomatic pomp that leaders from more powerful countries receive when they visit the Chinese capital. Alonso Illueca, CGSP's non-resident fellow for Latin America, joins Eric to discuss his latest article on how China's small-state outreach is playing out on the tiny Caribbean island of Dominica (population 75,000) and why it's so effective. SHOW NOTES: The China-Global South Project: Small State, Big Gains: Why Dominica Matters in China’s Global Strategy by Alonso Illueca The China-Global South Project: In Bolivia, China’s Lithium Extraction Plans Went to the Polls and Lost Badly by Alonso Illueca JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @stadenesque | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH AND ARABIC: Français: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Arabic: عربي: www.alsin-alsharqalawsat.com | @SinSharqAwsat JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

This week's Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin signaled China’s ambition to redefine global governance. Leaders from more than 20 countries endorsed the Tianjin Declaration, pressing for a multipolar order, tighter security cooperation, and expanded economic integration. The joint statement also went further than past communiqués, condemning Israel’s actions in Gaza and reflecting the bloc’s growing willingness to weigh in on global conflicts. Eric & Cobus discuss the powerful optics that emerged from this year's gathering, which appeared specifically choreographed to send a clear, unmistakable message to U.S. President Donald Trump. JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @stadenesque | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH AND ARABIC: Français: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Arabic: عربي: www.alsin-alsharqalawsat.com | @SinSharqAwsat JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth  

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi left Northeast Asia this week, embarking on a two-stop trip that includes Japan and then China, where he will participate in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, which begins on Sunday. The PM's visit comes amid a full-scale implosion of India's ties with the United States, following Washington's imposition this week of a massive 50% tariff on all Indian exports to the U.S., the highest duties on any country in Asia, except China. Derek Grossman, a professor at the University of Southern California and a leading Asia-Pacific affairs analyst in the United States, joins Eric from Los Angeles to discuss the high-stakes politics at this weekend's SCO gathering and whether Donald Trump's actions will coax India and China to reconcile. JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH AND ARABIC: Français: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Arabic: عربي: www.alsin-alsharqalawsat.com | @SinSharqAwsat JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth