The New Dilemma for Middle Powers Caught Between the U.S. and China

In this episode of the China Global South Podcast, Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden unpack a major question facing middle powers everywhere: What happens when the global security architecture you relied on for decades no longer exists? Fresh from meetings at Australian National University and the Australasian Aid Conference, Eric shares conversations with scholars, diplomats, and policymakers in Canberra who are wrestling with a new geopolitical reality. Topics include: Eric and Cobus also break down China's push to promote its Global Security Initiative at the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa, the limitations of the UN system, and why both Western and Chinese security narratives fail to address Africa's real on-the-ground security challenges. 📌 Key topics in this episode: • The U.S.–China rivalry and why middle powers feel trapped • Australia's dilemma: China is the biggest customer AND biggest security concern • Why the Pacific Islands have become a frontline of strategic contestation • Joint patrols in the South China Sea and shifting regional alliances • Whether the Five Eyes model still works in a world where U.S. power is unpredictable • How Japan, South Korea, and Canada are rethinking security and trade • Why "rules-based order" no longer resonates across the Global South • China's Global Security Initiative (GSI) and what it actually means for Africa • Why many countries fear mass migration more than great-power conflict • Why middle powers still lack a clear, forward-looking vision JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH & SPANISH:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

China has funded, designed, and built more than 200 government buildings across Africa, including the headquarters of the African Union and Ecowas, foreign ministry annexes in Ghana and Kenya, and at least 15 national parliaments. Eric and Cobus speak with Innocent Batsani-Ncube, an associate professor of African politics at Queen Mary University of London and author of the new book China and African Parliaments. Drawing on extensive fieldwork in Lesotho, Malawi, and Zimbabwe, Batsani-Ncube explains how China's parliamentary construction boom works, why African governments welcome it, and what he calls "subtle power"—a form of elite-level influence that sits between soft and sharp power. 📌 Key topics in this episode: Why China builds African parliamentary buildings — and why African governments accept them "Subtle power" vs. soft power vs. sharp power The politics behind construction, design, and land selection How these buildings shape legislative capacity and political identity Case studies: Lesotho, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Congo-Brazzaville Does this compromise sovereignty? Or strengthen parliaments? Are these buildings really vectors for Chinese espionage? 📘 Purchase China and African Parliaments by Innocent Batsani-Ncube on Amazon JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH & SPANISH:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

China's rapid ascent from rural poverty to industrial superpower reshaped the global economy and established a new center of gravity for manufacturing. Today, Chinese factories anchor much of the world's supply chains, producing goods at a speed and scale that few countries can match. Behind this transformation is a system that author Dan Wang describes in his new book "Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future" as the "engineering state," a model defined by massive investments in infrastructure, strategic planning, and so-called "process knowledge" gleaned from the country's rapid industrial development. Now, more and more, the Chinese government touts this development model as an example for other countries in the Global South to emulate. Dan joins Eric to discuss whether the so-called "engineering state" is replicable elsewhere or if it's a uniquely Chinese phenomenon. CHAPTERS: • Setting the Stage – China's rise from rural poverty to industrial superpower • The Engineering State – How China builds, plans, and organizes at a massive scale • Roots of the Model – East Asian development traditions and Soviet legacies • Infrastructure as Strategy – High-speed rail, bridges, airports, and the costs behind them • Industrial Capacity – Manufacturing clusters, supply chains, and process knowledge • The Speed Advantage – Why Chinese firms move faster than global competitors • Tech Transfer Debates – Joint ventures, old IP, and myths about forced transfers • Subsidies and Support – What Chinese industrial subsidies do—and what they don't • Exporting the Model – Limits of replication in Africa, Asia, and the Global South • The China Price – How scale, logistics, and workforce learning lock in dominance • Internal Tensions – Debt, underused infrastructure, and diminishing returns • Shifting Priorities – Xi's push away from consumer tech and toward strategic industries • Global Backlash – Overcapacity, trade pushback, and rising protectionism • Future Crossroads – Why China's development engine is losing momentum • Lessons for the Global South – What countries can adapt—and what they must avoid JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH & SPANISH:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

China is breaking the rules of development. Typically, as countries progress up the value chain, they transition from agriculture to light industry, then to heavy industry, and ultimately to high-technology and services. And as they move up the value chain, this creates opportunities for less-developed countries to advance. But China's not doing that. Chinese manufacturers are holding on to their immense productive capacity, enabling them to produce both low-tech sneakers and high-tech semiconductors at a scale and cost that are unrivaled. Now, as developing countries around the world seek to move up the value chain, they will have to compete head-on against the dreaded "China Price." James Kynge, who covered China for nearly 30 years at the Financial Times, delved into this challenge in a fascinating audiobook that came out earlier this year, "Global Tech Wars: China's Race to Dominate." James joins Eric from London to explain how China's ability to produce a $6 toaster exemplifies the country's enormous manufacturing advantage that will be very difficult, if not impossible, for other countries to match. CHAPTERS: • Introduction – The $6 toaster and the global value chain crisis • The Flying Geese Model – How automation broke development's old path • China's Dual Reality – A continent-sized economy of billionaires and low-wage labor • Industrial Clusters – The unbeatable advantage of Shenzhen and the Pearl River Delta • The Global South's Dilemma – Competing against the "China price" • Automation and Inequality – Why manufacturing isn't moving offshore • The $1 Trillion Surplus – Trade backlash and global tensions • Searching for Solutions – Industrial policy and self-strengthening in the Global South • Winners and Losers – Cheap exports, consumer gains, and producer pain • Political Risk – Xi Jinping's lesson from Western deindustrialization • The Humanoid Robot Moment – From $6 toasters to $6,000 robots • China's Auto Revolution – BYD and the new wave of affordable EVs • The Double-Edged Future – Opportunity and disruption in China's rise SHOW NOTES: Financial Times: Global Tech Wars: China's Race to Dominate by James Kynge Financial Times: China's plan to reshape world trade on its own terms by James Kynge and Keith Fray JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH & SPANISH:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

As China's economic influence expands, so does its ambition to shape the very system that once constrained it. In this episode of The China-Global South Podcast, Eric speaks with Greg Chin and Kevin Gallagher from Boston University's Global Development Policy Center about their new book that details China's transformation from a "rules taker" within the Bretton Woods system to a "rules maker" who's now reshaping the international development finance architecture. Greg and Kevin explore the country's growing role in the IMF and World Bank, its creation of new institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the New Development Bank (NDB), and what this means for developing nations navigating between Western and Chinese-led finance. CHAPTERS: • Introduction – A brief calm in U.S.–China tensions • Rule Taker → Rule Maker – China's rise inside global finance • Building Alternatives – Creating the AIIB and NDB • Two-Way Countervailing Power – Leveraging inside–outside influence • Green Finance and "Next Practices" – Raising the bar on development norms • Debt and Diplomacy – How China handles restructuring • Institutional Layering – Shaping without dismantling • Washington's Dilemma – Anxiety over losing control • The Global South's New Agency – More options, more leverage • A New Multilateral Moment – Uncertain future for global governance SHOW NOTES: 📚 Read the book (free download) JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH & SPANISH:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

China sits at the heart of Indonesia's energy paradox — driving the country's ambitious shift toward renewables while remaining deeply entrenched in its coal economy. Chinese financing and technology are accelerating Indonesia's clean energy buildout, from nickel refining to electric vehicles and solar manufacturing. Yet the same Chinese firms are also behind large swathes of Indonesia's coal infrastructure, including off-grid plants that power the smelters fueling its industrial boom. Kevin Zongzhe Li, an affiliated researcher at the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis, explored this paradox in a recent report that also details how Jakarta is carefully positioning itself among the major powers to facilitate the transition to more sustainable energy supplies. SHOW NOTES: The Asia Society Policy Institute: Indonesia's Energy Transition: Exercising Strategic Agency in Partnership with China by Kevin Zongzhe Li JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH & SPANISH:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

Chinese exports are booming—but ties with the U.S. are collapsing. Across Asia, from Beijing to Manila, Washington's shifting strategy under Trump is reshaping alliances and testing security guarantees that have underpinned the region for decades. Eric speaks with James Crabtree, a distinguished visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and the Asia Society, about how Asia's leaders are adapting to a world in flux: China's mix of confidence and anxiety amid its own economic slowdown How Trump's erratic policy is breaking apart the anti-China coalition Growing doubts in Tokyo, Seoul, and Manila about U.S. security guarantees Taiwan's precarious position and fears of being left alone Vietnam's balancing act between U.S. tariffs and China's dominance Why India is quietly building backup plans with Europe JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

For centuries, the United States was the undisputed hegemonic power across the Western Hemisphere; however, that is no longer the case today. China is now the largest trading partner for the majority of countries in Latin America and is quickly filling the void left by a decades-long U.S. retrenchment. In his new book, "Economic Displacement: China and the End of U.S. Primacy in Latin America," Francisco Urdinez, an assistant professor at the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, argues that U.S. neglect of the region has created a critical opening for China to expand both its economic and political influence in the Americas. Francisco joins Eric from Santiago to discuss the future of the U.S.-China rivalry in Latin America. SHOW NOTES: Purchase a copy of "Economic Displacement: China and the End of U.S. Primacy in Latin America" and receive a 20% discount through October 31, 2026, by entering the code ECDT25 at checkout: www.cambridge.org/9781009672269 JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

In the weeks since Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the new Global Governance Initiative (GGI) during a speech at the SCO summit in Tianjin, Beijing's propaganda apparatus has been working overtime to build support for the new plan, particularly in Africa, Latin America, and other developing regions. The GGI is the latest in a series of Chinese global initiatives that also focus on development, human rights, and security, which it's using to stake a larger claim for international leadership at a time when the U.S.-led system is collapsing. Brian Wong, an assistant professor at Hong Kong University and a leading scholar on Chinese global governance, joins Eric to discuss what Beijing is hoping to accomplish with the GGI and its other governance initiatives. SHOW NOTES: Routledge: Moral Debt: Defending a New Account of Reparative Justice by Brian Wong Hong Kong University Press: Towards a Future for BRICS+ edited by Heiwai Tang and Brian Wong  JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

It wasn't that long ago when the leaders from India and China couldn't even look at each other when they were in the same room. Today, the situation is very different. Ties between the two Asian powers have improved dramatically from a few years ago, when a violent conflict along their disputed border sent relations into a deep freeze. But even though China and India have resolved a number of their differences in recent years, serious problems persist, none more so than their disputed border that remains one of the most heavily armed frontiers in the world. Professor Jabin Jacob, associate professor at the Shiv Nadar Institute of Eminence and one of India's foremost China scholars, joins Eric to discuss why resolving the border dispute, in particular, is going to be very difficult. JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth