Evening Market Recap - Tuesday, 17-Sep

US equities were higher for the week, with the S&P setting a new fresh all-time high on Thursday (its 39th record close of the year) before trimming gains on Friday. After months of anticipation, the Fed this week opened up its long-expected easing cycle with a 50 bps rate cut, matching expectations as represented by futures pricing but coming against broad analyst consensus forecasting only 25 bps. August retail sales were slightly positive vs expectations for a decline, with analysts pointing to favorable weather and solid back-to-school shopping trends.

US equities finished higher in Thursday trading, ending not far from best levels. A big rally for stocks today following yesterday’s 50 basis point Fed rate cut., which saw the S&P 500 hit a fresh record close. In macro news, initial claims came in below consensus, falling to its lowest level since May.

US equities finished lower Wednesday, ending near worst levels in choppy post-FOMC trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 25bps, 29bps, and 31bps respectively. Monetary policy pivot was the big story today with the Fed opting for a more aggressive 50 bp rate cut. While the Street seemed to largely be in the 25 bp camp, the market was leaning toward 50 bp. August housing starts and building permits both came in ahead of consensus.

US equities finished largely mixed in Tuesday trading. Another quiet session ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting. Today's August retail sales report was a bit stronger than expected whereas previews suggested a weaker report could have tipped the scales more conclusively toward a bigger cut. Fed pivot and economic soft landing still seen as the main driver of the bullish narrative. 

US equities finished mostly higher in Monday trading in a quiet session after stocks caught a big bounce last week. It was a largely uneventful session as the market waits for the Fed's rate-cut decision on Wednesday. In macro news, the New York Fed's Empire manufacturing survey for September unexpectedly flipped positive for first time since November 2023.

US equities ended higher this week with big tech leading the way on the heels of some positive AI momentum and amid oversold conditions, after the S&P 500 posted its worst performance last week since March of 2023, and the Nasdaq since January of 2022. The August CPI report was a big highlight of the week ahead of Wednesday's September FOMC meeting. August headline CPI was largely in line while monthly core was hotter, with shelter prices the significant component of the core rise, and airline fares higher after five months of declines.

US equities were higher in Thursday trading, ending near best levels. Stocks rallied amid today's modest ramp in 50 basis point rate cut odds after a media report that seemingly offered some additional support for an outsized move. In macro news, headline August PPI printed in-line but core PPI was a bit hotter than consensus, following yesterday's uptick in core CPI.

US equities were higher in Wednesday trading, ending at best levels as the market reversed some morning post-CPI weakness, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 31bps, 107bps, and 217bps respectively. August headline CPI was largely in line, up +2.5% y/y, while monthly core was hotter with shelter prices the significant component of the core rise and airline fares higher after five months of declines. Today's $39B 10Y Treasury auction stopped through, following a strong 3-year note auction on Tuesday.

US equities were mostly higher in Tuesday trading, though ended near best levels after reversing midday weakness. Today also saw rotation back into tech/semis/AI trade following well received Oracle earnings. Some underwhelming banking sector updates, weak auto guidance out of Europe and softness in commodities. Next big catalysts are tonight's presidential debate and tomorrow's release of August CPI.

US equities were higher in Monday trading, though ended off best levels. It was a very quiet session with few catalysts as the market rebounds off of Friday's weakness but continues to wait for key catalysts ahead, namely the September 18th FOMC meeting. It was also a fairly light economic calendar today, which included August’s Manheim used car index.