FactSet Evening Market Recap

It was a broad risk-off week, with Friday's attempt at an oversold bounce not gaining much traction. The major event was the September FOMC meeting, for which takeaways generally leaned hawkish. The Fed kept rates steady as expected but also issued a new edition of the dot plot which maintained forecasts for another 2023 hike and reduced the median forecast for 2024 easing to 50bp (from 100bp in June).

US equities finished lower in a quiet Thursday afternoon trading session, near worst levels and extending Wednesday's declines. It was a broad risk-off session amid more hawkish takeaways from yesterday's FOMC meeting. September Philly Fed manufacturing weakened more than expected, with declines in shipments and new orders; prices paid/received components both rose.

US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, moving toward their worst levels following today's Fed meeting, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing down 22bps, 94bps, and 153bps respectively. No surprise as FOMC left rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. Also as expected, the median dot for 2023 continued to show one more rate hike. Klaviyo’s IPO priced at $30/sh.

US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, though stocks ended near session highs. The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finished down 0.31%, 0.22%, and 0.23%, respectively. Big tech was mostly stronger though Amazon (AMZN) was a notable decliner. Managed care, machinery, road and rail, semis, restaurants, hotels, casinos, grocers, and HPCs were among the laggards. Steel, insurers, autos, biotech, homebuilders, cruise lines, and telecom fared better. Treasuries were weaker with the curve flattening amid some upward pressure on yields from hotter Canadian inflation. 2Y yield moved above 5.10%. The dollar was slightly higher on the euro and yen crosses. Gold finished little changed while Bitcoin futures were up 1.4%. WTI crude settled down 0.1%. Overall, rate backup and higher oil prices continued to be flagged as headwinds. Looking ahead, the markets expect a near-100% chance that the Fed will hold at Wednesday's FOMC meeting and maintain its hawkish higher-for-longer messaging.

US equities finished little changed in very quiet, rangebound Monday trading. Markets are in a bit of a waiting game ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision. September builder confidence missed, falling to the lowest level since April.

US equities were mostly lower in up and down trading this week, with the S&P and Nasdaq finishing back below their 50-day moving averages. The August CPI report garnered the most attention, with the headline coming in largely in line with expectations (though driven higher by recent strength in energy prices) but the core printing was a little hotter than consensus. Nevertheless, analysts had little sense the release would change the Fed's thinking about a likely hold at next week's FOMC meeting.

US equities were higher in Thursday trading, ending just off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing up 96bps, 84bps, and 81bps respectively. Headline PPI much hotter than expected but core PPI in line and continuing to slow on a y/y basis. Headline and core control retail sales came in stronger. Initial claims were lower than expected, highlighting a still strong labor market. UAW president said union and automakers remain far apart on negotiations. ARM’s IPO priced at $51 a share, at the top of the indicated range and valuing the company at ~$54.5B.

US equities finished mixed in fairly quiet Wednesday trading, with the Dow ending down 0.20%, and the S&P and Nasdaq finishing up 0.12% and 0.29%. Big tech was mostly higher, reversing some of yesterday's pullback, though market breadth was negative overall. Autos, semis, utilities, software, MedTech and life sciences, trucking, and telecom were some of the other areas of strength. Airlines, media, banks, homebuilders, energy, auto suppliers, machinery, industrial conglomerates, and tech hardware were among the laggards. Treasuries were firmer with curve steepening. The dollar was better on the euro and yen crosses but little changed vs sterling. Gold finished down 0.1% while bitcoin futures finished up 0.5%. WTI crude ended down 0.4% after Tuesday's near-2% gain hit its highest level in nearly ten months on Tuesday. In macroeconomic news, Headline August CPI saw its largest monthly increase since June 2022, which was as expected, while Core was a bit hotter than consensus. Looking ahead, August PPI comes out tomorrow and preliminary September consumer sentiment (and inflation expectations) are out Friday.

US equities were mostly lower in Tuesday trading, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finishing down 0.05%, 0.57%, and 1.04%, respectively. Big tech, especially Apple (AAPL), was a drag after helping drive the market higher yesterday. Software, networking and communications, HPCs, beverages, freight and logistics, homebuilders, building materials, and MedTech were among the other laggards. Meanwhile, energy, banks, insurers, credit cards, airlines, rails, and casual diners held up better. Treasuries were mostly firmer with some curve flattening after another backup in yields on Monday. The dollar index finished up 0.2% with gains on the major crosses. Gold ended down 0.6% while bitcoin futures ended up 4.5% following a 3.5% selloff in the prior session. WTI crude settled up 1.8%, ending near 10-month highs after the OPEC report highlighted a growing supply deficit. In macroeconomic news, the NFIB small business optimism index slipped to 91.3 in August from 91.9 in July, marking the 20th consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98. Otherwise, there was not much else in today's headlines, as the market still seems to largely be in waiting mode for CPI tomorrow and then PPI, retail sales, ECB and UAW contract expiration on Thursday.

US equities were higher in Monday trading trading as the S&P and Nasdaq finished near best levels and ended back above their 50dmas after slipping below last week. There's big week ahead with CPI, PPI, and retail sales on the US economic calendar, the AAPL iPhone event, Barclays Financial Services Conference, ECB meeting and China activity data. The latest NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations showed 1Y inflation expectations are up 0.1pp to 3.6% though the 3Y fell, while views on current and future household finances deteriorated.