Disengaged podcast

Predictably Irrational with Dan Ariely

17/9/2026
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1:06:59
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Dan Ariely is the James B. Duke Professor of Psychology and Behavioral Economics at Duke University and a founding member of the Center for Advanced Hindsight. He co-founded Irrational Capital and has written eight books, including Predictably Irrational and Misbelief, which he wrote after a COVID conspiracy theory cast him as one of its villains.

We cover the vintage Swiss Army knife model of decision-making, the India experiments behind Large Stakes and Big Mistakes, what Fortune 500 satisfaction surveys predict about stock returns, fairness as a judgment no regression will settle, and the writing Dan is doing now about the end of life.

What we covered:

  • States that introduced fines for texting and driving and watched accidents rise
  • The brain as a vintage Swiss army knife, adequate at many tasks, built for a world we have left
  • Car engineers who design against human error, social media engineers who design for it
  • Prepaid debit against credit, weekly loads against monthly, Monday against Friday
  • The India experiments, where a month of pay riding on a puzzle made people worse at solving it
  • The brain surgeon offered $100,000 and threatened with a hitman in parking spot 33
  • Which survey questions predict alpha, and which predict nothing
  • Perceived fairness outranking salary level, and the argument Dan could not win on Wall Street
  • The company that spent a day celebrating failed projects and paid half a million dollars to the winner
  • Bureaucracy as an engine whose definition of success is nothing happening
  • The hospital janitor we want to stop doing their job, and what job descriptions cost us
  • Theory X, Theory Y, and the ancient craftsmen who spent half their time on beauty
  • Two years spent interviewing the people who wanted him tried, imprisoned, or hanged
  • Writing as a way to make sense of his mother's death, and the three books he has in progress

People:

  • Alfie Kohn, author and previous guest on this show
  • Simon Jones, narrator of Dan's audiobooks
  • Ed Lazear, economist behind the Safelite windshield study
  • Sam Glucksberg, psychologist of the candle problem experiments
  • Douglas McGregor, originator of Theory X and Theory Y

Books:

  • Predictably Irrational, Dan Ariely
  • Misbelief, Dan Ariely
  • The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams

Articles:

Organizations:

  • Duke University, Center for Advanced Hindsight, Center for Advanced Bureaucracy, Irrational Capital, Harbor Capital, Alphabet's X, Safelite

Find Dan:

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/danariely/
Website: https://danariely.com
Substack: https://danariely.substack.com
Bureaucracy: https://bureaucracy.danariely.com

Music licensed through Soundstripe. Code: DLQOKHPSWUMSTCMH.

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