Samuel Leach examines WTI oil’s history and shows how closes above $110–$120 are extremely rare, concentrated in a few years, and often followed by sharp reversals. He explains the mechanics behind why very high oil prices tend to create their own undoing — demand destruction, higher interest rates, increased production incentives, and geopolitical risk premiums that can ease.
The episode argues $110–$120 should be treated as an opportunity zone, not an automatic trade: wait for signs of exhaustion, define clear invalidation points, size positions carefully, and monitor inventories, OPEC responses, and the futures curve before considering a shorting setup.
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