Why… did we not see the rise of China coming?

In this episode, Florence Gaub learns from Laura Bardone how the European Commission conducts economic forecasts and discovers that it does not involve a big calculator.

In this episode, Florence Gaub and Daniel Fiott talk foresight to Jean-Francois Ripoche from the European Defence Agency: how is it used, how is it useful, and why science fiction can help get it done.

In this special edition of our What if podcast, the EU’s first-ever commissioner for strategic foresight Maroš Šefčovič explains to Florence Gaub what foresight is, how it can help policy-making, and what he thinks generally about the future.

In this last episode of our mini-series on strategy, Security and Defence editor Daniel Fiott and Florence Gaub discuss strategy and strategic foresight: how are they different, how do they complement each other, and how are both applied to defence matters?

In the second episode of our mini-series on strategy, Florence Gaub has two guests: the pen-holder of the Strategic Compass, Jean-Pierre van Aubel, and Daniel Fiott, the Security and Defence editor of the EUISS. They discuss whether the Strategic Compass is, or is not, a strategy, how it is being put together, and why it is important for Europe.

In this first episode of our mini-series on strategy, EUISS director Gustav Lindstrom explains to Florence Gaub what strategy actually is (and what it is not), how the EU has become more and more strategic in its thinking and actions, and what this all means for the next phase in its strategic trajectory.

In this episode, Florence Gaub is the guest on her own show and explains to Giovanni Faleg why expectations of a rapid democratisation in the Arab world in 2011 were misplaced. She shows that a profound misunderstanding of democracy and transition towards it led to exaggerated expectations which themselves paved the way for some policy errors. What should we do differently next time?

In this episode, Alice Ekman explains to Florence Gaub why people commonly thought that China was going to become a democracy, or alternatively implode economically. We look at why wishful thinking, but also China’s unique historical path, paved the way for surprise in the 2010s. What would we have done differently if we had seen this more clearly – and is there something else we are not seeing?

In this new mini-series we look at past expectations that turned out to be untrue and try to learn from past mistakes. In our first episode, Stanislav Secrieru and Florence Gaub look at Russia: although people expected the country to be poor and weak, the 2010s witnessed Russia’s geopolitical resurgence. Why did we not see this coming, what can we learn from this – and what else are we doing wrong?

In this last episode of the Russia miniseries, Florence Gaub discusses with Andrew Wilson (ECFR) the future trajectory of a Belarus very much under the influence of Russia. How far might Russia go - and how much wiggle room is there for Belarus?