Invert the Problem: A Trading Thought Experiment

Sponsored by Pepperstone John had his best month ever. Then gave back 70% of it the month after. He asked: Did I crack it, or did I just get lucky? Here's the real answer and the high-watermark trick that stops your brain from sabotaging the run after a good one.

Sponsored by Pepperstone AI has just taken a massive leap. You can now ask it pretty much any question about price action, drop in a free CSV from TradingView, and properly interrogate the data. But most traders are asking the wrong questions. In this episode, Mark breaks down a simple 5-question framework for using AI to support discretionary trading… not replace it. It's not about building quant algorithms. It's about testing the hunches you've carried around for years, layering another edge onto your setups, and trading with a bit more conviction because the data has your back. Covers: Why "what will happen?" is the wrong questionThe 5 questions to ask before writing any promptHow to export a CSV from TradingView in 10 secondsReal prompt examples for FX, indices and metalsThe mindset shift from prediction to historical probability If you've ever said "gaps always fill" or "after a trend day we always retest" this is the episode that shows you how to actually test it. Quickly.

Sponsored by Pepperstone Most traders just pick 1% because someone told them to. But where did that number come from? And does it actually make sense for your goals, your win rate, and your R:R? In this episode I break down how to reverse engineer your risk per trade from your actual trading data. We look at why trade frequency can be a trap, why small changes in R:R massively shift the maths, and why the textbook approach ignores the one thing that matters most... your goal. I also built a risk per trade calculator you can play with. Risk Per Trade Calculator

Sponsored by Pepperstone Charlie Munger used to do something interesting when he was stuck on a problem. Instead of asking how do I succeed, he'd ask how do I guarantee failure… then simply not do that. In this episode I take that idea and apply it to trading. How would you guarantee you never improved? How would you make sure a small loss became a big one? How would you design a routine that burned you out within a year? The answers are uncomfortably familiar. Sometimes the edge isn't something you add to your trading. It's what you stop doing.

Sponsored by Pepperstone Most traders think they’re struggling because they don’t know enough. In reality… it’s often the opposite. In this episode, Mark breaks down The Curse of the Intellectual Trader. Why smart, successful people often find trading harder than expected, and how overthinking kills performance. You’ll learn: Why intelligence can work against you in the marketsHow traders confuse complexity with edgeWhy simple strategies feel wrong (but often work best)A powerful example from Pit Bull: Lessons from Wall Street’s Champion Day TraderHow to strip your strategy back to something you can actually execute If you’ve ever felt like you’re thinking too much, hesitating, or overcomplicating your trading… this one’s for you.

Sponsored by Pepperstone Something happened to me the other day that I wasn't expecting. A woman trapped in a window, fourth floor, covered in blood, screaming for help. I went in. And as I was debriefing afterwards... I realised every skill that kicked in came from trading. Signal vs noise. Risk management. Clarity under pressure. Acting on incomplete information. Being firm first, then calm. This episode is that story, start to finish. Then I walk back through it and pull out the trading parallels. It's a different one. But if you trade, you'll get it.

Sponsored by Pepperstone. Most traders don’t lose because they’re wrong on direction… They lose because they enter too late. They wait for confirmation. They wait to feel safe. And by the time they pull the trigger… The trade is already broken. In this episode, I break down why entry location is one of the most overlooked edges in trading… and how a simple idea, buying on red and selling on green, can dramatically improve your risk-reward. We cover: Why waiting often destroys trade structureThe difference between buying pullbacks vs chasing breakoutsHow volatility contraction and expansion impact your edgeWhy better entries lead to better trades (even with the same idea) If you find yourself being right on direction a lot… but not getting the results. This one will hit home.

Sponsored by Pepperstone Trading stress doesn’t always end when the market closes. In this episode we explore an interesting concept used by the military called “closing the loop.” After missions, soldiers perform simple rituals like cleaning gear and debriefing. These routines aren’t just operational. They signal to the brain that the mission is finished. Without that signal, stress hormones can stay elevated and the mind keeps replaying events. Traders experience something very similar. Day traders often get natural closure when they finish the day flat. But swing traders and position traders can struggle because their trades remain open. In this episode we discuss: • Why the brain hates open loops • Why traders keep thinking about positions after hours • The biological reason routines reduce stress • How to create a simple post-market ritual to help your brain switch off If you want clearer thinking, better recovery and improved performance, learning how to close the loop may be one of the simplest changes you can make.

Sponsored by Pepperstone At some point in trading, something changes. Not your strategy. Not your indicators. You change. After enough screen time, enough wins and losses, and enough experience in the markets, traders begin to see risk, uncertainty, and decision-making very differently. In this episode, Mark breaks down the subtle psychological shifts that happen only through experience: Why experienced traders are comfortable saying “I don’t know”How losses lose their emotional weightWhy nobody actually knows where price is goingThe real reason patience eventually becomes naturalAnd why individual trades stop mattering as much as you think If you’re in that frustrating middle phase where you understand trading but consistency still feels just out of reach, this episode may change how you view your progress. Sometimes the biggest improvements in trading don’t come from learning more - they come from staying in the game long enough for experience to do its work.

Sponsored by Pepperstone Everyone's panicking about AI replacing white collar jobs. Accountants, lawyers, coders, designers... the list keeps growing. But what about us? Will AI solve the markets and put traders out of business? In this episode, I break down why I think trading is one of the few skills AI genuinely can't replace, why algos have been battling each other for decades without "solving" anything, and why now might be the perfect time to double down on building your edge.