GM92: Politics in an Age of Hard Borders and Rising Hegemons ft. Gary Gerstle

In this conversation, the veneer of political continuity is stripped back to reveal a world drifting toward harder borders, sharper identities and a reshaping of power once thought unthinkable. Gary Gerstle traces the erosion of the neoliberal order and the rise of a political logic that places national strength above universal norms. He examines how affordability stress, authoritarian impulses and fragmented parties are redrawing economic life and democratic expectations. The discussion widens into a global map of competing hegemons and the uneasy choices facing Europe and the United States. What emerges is a portrait of a century unsettled, yet not without agency.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on LinkedIn.Follow Gary on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening remarks on a shifting world and national security visions00:44 - Introduction to Top Traders Unplugged and context for the discussion01:40 - Framing the global macro environment and the need for deeper perspectives02:24 - Introducing Gary Gerstle and his work on political and economic orders04:00 - Defining the end of the neoliberal era and what has replaced it07:02 - The tension between authoritarian forces and liberal democratic hopes08:17 - Democracy under strain and the implications of Trump’s second term10:06 - Shock, discipline and the early strategic force of Trump...

This episode examines markets through the lens of uncertainty rather than prediction. As the Federal Reserve delivers a rate cut amid dissent and conflicting signals, Alan and Mark explore what it means for systematic investors navigating noisy data, fragile liquidity and shifting regimes. The conversation moves from Fed credibility and term premia to bubbles, leverage and the limits of valuation in an environment shaped by narratives as much as fundamentals. Along the way, they return to a core question at the heart of systematic investing: when uncertainty rises and explanations multiply, should prices remain the final arbiter of risk, signal and portfolio design?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor series00:23 - Market context and recent CTA performance02:41 - Initial reactions to the Fed decision and rate cut03:12 - A messy Fed and the problem of dissenting signals06:48 - Inflation, growth projections and policy uncertainty08:31 - Signal versus noise in systematic trading models11:22 - Employment data revisions and confidence in fundamentals13:10 - Bond valuation, term premia and the question of safe assets16:30 - Fiscal dominance, inflation risk and portfolio fragility19:29 - Prices versus value and the limits of interpretation22:47 - Narratives, reflexivity and momentum in markets28:07...

Niels and Alan sit down with BlackRock’s Jeff Rosenberg to examine how the post Covid shift from too little to too much inflation is reshaping portfolios. Jeff explains why bond and equity correlations have changed, why fixed income is drifting back toward income rather than pure diversification, and how fiscal pressure and soft financial repression may influence rates. They explore what systematic really means at BlackRock, from trend ETFs and defensive alpha to market breadth and execution. The conversation ends with the rise of liquid alternatives, whole portfolio thinking and growing equity concentration risk.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Jeff on LinkedIn.Find out more about DUNN CapitalEpisode Timestamps:00:00 - Introduction, Jeff’s role at BlackRock Systematic and setting the agenda04:09 - From too little to too much inflation and the end of divine coincidence09:32 - Wage dynamics, “prices are too high” and persistent, not resurgent, inflation14:48 - Bond equity correlation, the changing role of fixed income and income versus diversification19:55 - Fiscal dominance, debt loads and the risk of soft financial repression25:21 - What “systematic” means at BlackRock across beta, factors and pure alpha30:44 - Trend as a systematic return stream and why...

Niels and Alan explore how a fragile macro regime reshapes systematic investing, from a politicised Fed succession to widening cracks in a debt-laden, equity-dependent economy. A shifting bond landscape, rising capital demands from AI and renewed tariff risks challenge the old 60/40 orthodoxy. Listener questions on US policy shocks and the Yen carry trade open a deeper look at when trend helps and when it hurts. The episode culminates in a world exclusive of SocGen's 2026 index changes and the first public reveal of Alan’s new paper: The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio, for genuinely resilient, opportunity-aware global wealth compounding intelligently, prudently over the decade ahead.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Voiceover and introduction to the Systematic Investor Series00:23 - Niels and Alan open, what is on their radar this week01:27 - Fed succession as a political risk factor and betting markets03:33 - Crypto moves, Vanguard’s platform shift and MicroStrategy index pressure05:53 - Listener questions: can constant US policy shocks break trend?06:33 - Trouble for trend or just another regime to endure and adapt to08:55 - Short-term CTAs, Liberation Day and when speed becomes a handicap11:11 - How CTAs are positioned for a yen carry unwind and JGB nuances12:16 - November trend update, five straight positive months and short-term pain13:35 - World exclusive: new SocGen CTA and...

Alan Dunne speaks with HSBC Asset Management’s Global Chief Strategist, Joe Little, about what happens when the old macro rules stop working. Joe traces the shift from a demand led, low inflation world to a supply constrained regime of sticky and spiky prices, where 2 percent becomes a floor rather than a target. He explains the “reverse bond conundrum,” rising term premia and the quiet return of fiscal dominance. The conversation explores AI as investment boom, not yet productivity cure, the maturing of emerging markets, the fate of the dollar and how to build truly multipolar portfolios.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Joe on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening clip, long bonds misbehaving and the “reverse bond yield conundrum”00:55 - Introduction and risk disclosure for Top Traders Unplugged listeners01:50 - Joe’s path from economist to global chief strategist and house view author05:16 - From post crisis disinflation to a supply constrained, sticky inflation regime10:32 - Why 2 percent looks like a floor, tariffs, profits and delayed inflation effects13:34 - 2026 baseline: muddle through growth, positive policy impulse and inflation nuance16:42 - AI as capital expenditure boom, echoes of the 1990s and the missing productivity surge20:40 - China and Asia: regionalisation, industrial policy and an exit from...

In this week’s Systematic Investor episode, Niels and Andrew Beer explore how a broken 60/40 paradigm is forcing wealth managers into a new world of “other” diversifiers. Andrew reflects on the Goldman Sachs report about private wealth flows, the rise of liquid alts and why big houses are suddenly launching trend ETFs. The conversation dives into replication versus traditional CTAs, the true cost of complexity, and Simplify’s new index-based product built on Andrew’s strategy. Along the way they debate pods, Bitcoin, and Andrew’s evolving metaphor of managed futures as a cloudy, but occasionally crystal-clear, macro crystal ball.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro and Thanksgiving reflections, gratitude and mood after the holiday01:14 - Goldman report: trillions from wealthy investors and a seismic shift away from 60/4003:38 - Why bonds stopped diversifying and the growth of the “other” bucket in portfolios05:44 - Liquid alts vs illiquid alts and the timing of big firms launching trend ETFs08:25 - Odd Lots, pods and Dalio’s skepticism on multi-strats’ future09:22 - Bitcoin’s volatile run and rumors of a manipulated pullback10:59 - November performance: zigzags in trend indices and short-term traders’ struggles12:55 - How DBMF positioned: concentration, short yen, euro pain and being contrarian post “Liberation Day”16:05 - Are we still “replication”? Alternative data beta, tracking error and what’s really...

In today’s episode we talk about the world’s oldest, and still most important asset: land. Our guest is the Economist’s Wall Street Editor Mike Bird. Mike is the author of a newly released book The Land Trap: A New History of the World’s Oldest Asset. We discuss the properties that make land unique as an asset and why it serves as collateral for almost two-thirds of all bank loans, making it the backbone of the world’s money supply. Mike explains what the “land trap” means and why China is caught in its grip like no other country. We also discuss the one country in the world that seems to have escaped the trap and whether their lessons can be applied elsewhere. -----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Mike on X and read his book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening and setup00:00:49 - Disclaimer and show introduction00:01:45 - The premise: land as humanity’s oldest asset00:04:18 - Defining the “land trap” through Hong Kong’s model00:09:01 - Three defining traits: scarcity, immovability, endurance00:18:17 - Why technology can’t replace geography00:23:29 - Land as collateral and the rise of...

Rob Carver returns for a conversation that quietly questions the foundations. Is trend following an edge - or just a reward for holding discomfort others can’t? From the role of skew in shaping outcomes to the blind spots in most robustness frameworks, Rob and Niels takes you through the mechanics with uncommon clarity. Listener questions open up the deeper layers: when volatility targeting helps, when it hurts, and why Sharpe Ratios can mislead. They end with a shift that may matter more than it seems: CalPERS moving to a Total Portfolio Approach. Not just a new framework - potentially a new lane for CTAs.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro and welcome to the Systematic Investor Series00:23 - Catching up with Rob and a cold, sunny UK01:35 - Is trend following an edge or a risk premium?03:38 - Overcomplicating edges and the Cliff Asness perspective04:30 - Renaissance’s bad month and how even legends struggle09:25 - Managed futures ETFs, performance narratives, and media framing11:22 - AI, Nvidia and what an “AI bubble” might mean for trends13:10 - Trend barometer, current positioning and where returns come from18:35 - George’s question: robustness testing, overfitting and multiple testing25:45 - How often to re-fit models and when to leave parameters alone27:44 - Frederik’s question: intraday versus end of day for medium term...

Recorded live from the Cboe RMC floor in Munich, Cem Karsan sits down with volatility veteran David Dredge for a deep exploration of what truly drives risk. From the crash of 1987 to today’s era of correlation, Dredge reframes volatility not as fear, but freedom. Through his F1 “brakes” analogy, he reveals why protection enables performance, and how convexity builds resilience in an uncertain world. Together, they trace the arc from structured-product flows to demographics, fiscal repression, and the coming global “Hunger Games” for savings. A masterclass in compounding through uncertainty.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow David on X.Episode TimeStamps: 00:01:29 – Cem introduces David Dredge live from Munich.00:03:28 – Dredge recalls arriving in Asia before the 1987 crash.00:05:06 – The F1 brakes analogy—why protection enables speed.00:07:45 – The “preserve and enhance” portfolio that defied 65/35.00:10:57 – Rethinking 60/40 and the illusion of diversification.00:14:33 – Cem on $500 trillion of correlated assets.00:17:22 – Why covered calls lose to convexity over time.00:19:14 – Misreading 2022: correlation, not equities, was the risk.00:21:20 – When diversification fails, only convexity endures.00:27:13 – Value investing in volatility—buying what others suppress.00:37:48 – Euro...

What happens when the data goes dark, yet markets barely flinch? In this episode, Niels and Katy unpack the month of October defined by missing economic releases, relentless equity strength and three extraordinary days of Liberation Day turbulence. They explore why price often tells the truest story, how total portfolio thinking could rewrite the role of trend, and why short term strategies faltered while precious metals surged. The conversation then shifts to the coming wave of alternatives in private wealth and the silent risk inside target date funds, asking how managed futures can reshape retirement outcomes when timing paths go wrong.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to [email protected] please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction and catching up from Boston02:00 - Life without economic data and what markets really need04:20 - Price as the only truth and the limits of official data05:45 - CalPERS, total portfolio thinking and what it means for trend08:20 - AI, data centers and the inflation story hiding in electricity10:30 - Inflation regimes, unstable prices and why trend cares about change12:40 - Year to date trend review across equities, metals, FX and bonds15:10 - Why short term traders struggled in a headline driven year20:00 - Picking “the best strategy” and why robustness matters more than Sharpe24:10 - Parameters, speed of response and treating markets differently26:20