
The House Always Wins: Lessons from Google’s 2025 Earnings (Podcast Episode 484)
The "Search Bar" isn’t dying; it’s evolving into an expensive gated community.
In this episode of Digital Reset with Tim Peter (formerly Thinks Out Loud), Tim breaks down the economic reality of Google’s bananas $400 billion year. Despite the hype surrounding AI as a "search killer," Google’s 17% growth in search ads proves that the 800-lb. gorilla still dominates the discovery landscape.
We are also witnessing a structural shift from the “Age of the Card Catalog” to the “Age of the Concierge.” AI assistants and agents are turning into “context engines,” consolidating and connecting brand signals from across the web to provide direct recommendations rather than just lists of links.
To survive this latest phase of your customers’ "Digital Reset," brands must move beyond Big Tech dependency and reclaim their demand through clear, consistent content and experiences. And they must become brands customers will ask for by name.
Key Insights for Strategic Leaders
- The Economic Scale: Google’s growth in 2025 was larger than the total annual revenue of OpenAI, reinforcing that Big Tech continues to lead in the marketplace.
- The Concierge Reality: It’s been clear for a while that discovery has moved from "finding links” to "receiving recommendations.” The reality is that AI trusts brand consensus — what it finds out about your brand everywhere — over marketing claims on just one or two channels. This is a profound shift and one that marketers must address today.
- The Tax on Discovery: With ad revenue reaching $82 billion in a single quarter, the cost of "buying back" your customers via Big Tech continues to rise. Keep repeating, “Gatekeepers gonna gate.“
- Your Brand is the Prompt: In the “Age of the Concierge,” the only signal a machine cannot fabricate is a clear, consistent, human brand identity.
Want to learn more? Here are the show notes for you.
The House Always Wins: Lessons from Google’s 2025 Earnings — Headlines and Show Notes
Show Notes and Links
- Google Earnings Q4 2025
- OpenAI CFO says annualized revenue crosses $20 billion in 2025 | Reuters
- “Gatekeepers Gonna Gate” is Gonna Kill ChatGPT (Episode 477)
- Digital advertising trends for 2026 – Think with Google
- Marriott brings hotel bookings directly into… • Hospitality.today
- Marriott (MAR) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript – AOL
- Alphabet earnings, Q4 2025: CEO’s remarks
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) Q4 FY2025 earnings call transcript
- Number of ChatGPT Users (January 2026)
- Google Search Statistics 2026: Search Habits Revealed Now • SQ Magazine
- Google AI Overview Statistics: 2026 Trends and Impact | Heroic Rankings
- timpeter.com/?feed-stats-url=aHR0cHM6Ly90aW1wZXRlci5jb20vYmxvZy9haS1yZXBsYWNpbmctc29jaWFsLXNlYXJjaC1wb2RjYXN0Lw%3D%3D&feed-stats-url-post-id=10498">Why AI Won’t Kill Search—It’s Doing Something Much Bigger (Episode 483)
- What Brand Tattoos Tell Us in the Age of AI (Podcast 482)
- AI Is Changing How Customers Choose — Here’s How Brands Win in 2026 (Best of the Show: Revisiting Episode 478)
- What ChatGPT Ads Mean for Your Business (Episode 481)
- What Apple and Google’s AI Deal Means for Your Business (Podcast Episode 480)
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Rutgers Business School MSDM Speaker: Series: a Conversation with Tim Peter, Author of "Digital Reset"
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Transcript: The House Always Wins: Lessons from Google’s 2025 Earnings
Welcome back to the show. I’m Tim Peter. As a marketer and digital strategist, there’s one source of Intel that I love to check out all the time, and that is Big Tech’s earnings calls.
Big Tech tends to know more about what’s going on with our customers than anyone. Where they’re making and spending money tells us more about the state of digital and where it’s headed than just about anything else we can look at.
Usually when I do this, I look at the Frightful Five as a collection. I want to see Amazon. I want to see Google. I want to see Facebook. I want to see Apple. I want to see Microsoft. Sometimes I even share thoughts from folks like Shopify or Spotify or Expedia or Booking.com to get a bigger picture of the state of digital.
This time, though, I’m going in the opposite direction. I’m only looking at the 800-pound gorilla that scares every other beast in the jungle. And that is Google.
I’ll get into some of the details of Google’s earnings and what they mean in a few minutes. For now though, it’s enough to say that Google had a giant, massive, mammoth quarter. Almost $114 billion in revenue, an 18% increase year on year. That is, in a word, bananas.
If it’s not immediately obvious, Google’s financials make all the chatter about them losing market share and mind share to OpenAI and ChatGPT look, well, downright silly.
I don’t mean to diss ChatGPT, they fired the first shot of the AI revolution. But as the saying goes, money talks and, well, other stuff walks. And Google is making serious money.
Another thing to recognize is that Google’s earnings mostly come from ads, which means that their 18% growth is pulled straight from your pockets. They’re charging more tolls in more places to more businesses and reaping the rewards. Gatekeepers gonna gate, don’t you know?
What else can we learn from Google’s earnings? What do their earnings mean for your business in reality? And what can you do to succeed in a world still controlled by the baddest beast in the entire jungle? This is Digital Reset with Tim Peter. Let’s dive in.
So yeah, Google got that bag last quarter, as the kids say. They generated $114 billion in revenue in Q4, up 17%. They also pulled in more than $400 billion in revenue for the year, their biggest ever, up 15%.
By the way, quick aside, I’m not trying to manage your portfolio. I’m only looking at this through the lens of where are your customers interacting with AI? All right, not stock advice, please.
Anyway, 15% growth is great when you’re a $25 million company. That would represent an extra $3.75 million in sales. I mean, that is good work, right? Yeah.
Okay, Google pulled in almost $53 billion in extra sales last year.
To put this in context, OpenAI made over $20 billion in revenue in 2025, according to their CFO. That means that Google’s growth in 2025 was two and a half times OpenAI’s total revenues. If you want your first big takeaway from this, it’s that Google isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
Google also made $82.3 billion in revenue from ads in Q4, up roughly $9.8 billion year on year. That’s about a 13.6% increase. That $82.3 billion is fully 72% of Google’s total revenues. Hell, search alone represents 55% of Google’s total revenues. As CFO Ruth Porat said it best on their earnings call, “Search revenues really reflected broad-based growth across verticals. Search remained the largest contributor to revenue growth.”
Google’s ad growth happened despite lots of folks claiming that the company was under serious threat from OpenAI, ChatGPT, Perplexity, Claude, and others. Now, not to keep kicking OpenAI in the teeth, but YouTube and Google Network — that’s the non-search ads portion of Google’s advertising platform; it contributes just 16.9% of the company’s revenue — generated $7 billion more in the quarter than OpenAI did all of last year.
Damn.
Let’s just not forget though where that revenue came from. It came from you.
When you hear that Google had a great quarter or year, just remember it’s that it’s your ad dollars that paid for that. They’re collecting a toll from you to reach your customers. Google is in very good shape long-term here, built on your ad dollars. Now, I’m not saying that OpenAI is doomed, though I did hint at it at that towards the end of last year.
What I am saying is that they’ve got a long way to go if they’re going to compete head to head with Google’s money machine.
And all of that is before we talk about Google being the AI underneath the hood for Siri on Apple devices, which I broke down here on the show last month. So that’s two big takeaways.
The third major takeaway is that Google is using AI to improve its ad products in a big, big way. Philip Schindler noted on Google’s earnings call that, and this is a quote, “AI innovation across our ads ecosystem is core to every aspect of our product portfolio, from targeting, bidding, creative, measurement, and across campaign types.”
In short, Google is using AI. It’s heavily integrating AI into its core product to make that product better and better and better. Google’s ads alone produced four times more revenue than OpenAI did. Google is building an AI-enabled company, an AI-native company, and they’re reaping the rewards from it.
In a blog post talking about how the company is reinventing ads for the new era of search, Google’s VP and GM of ads and commerce Vidya Srinivasan wrote, “In 2026, this shift is turning search into a more powerful tool for discovery where ads can inspire an answer all at once. We aren’t just bringing ads to AI experiences in search," she writes. She said "we are reinventing what an ad is."
She goes on to say, "Take AI Mode, for example. It offers new opportunities for businesses to fit naturally into the conversation. That’s why we’ve spent the past year testing new ad formats that bridge inspiration and action."
Google is clearly integrating ads directly into AI Overviews and AI Mode that makes those a holistic part of the conversation with customers. That aligns with my idea that search is moving from being a card catalog to being a concierge. Google clearly intends ads to be part of that experience. Again, gatekeepers gonna gate and you’re the one paying the toll.
Now this might end up being more like a local business providing a spiff to the concierge for recommending their shop, then paying to present a separate card in the catalog the way ads have worked up until now.
The net result to you though is the same. You’re paying for that traffic. You’re paying for that customer.
We’re already seeing brands get on board with this approach. Marriott, Etsy, and Wayfair are already selling directly in AI Mode in Gemini. Google also claims that Shopify, Target, and Walmart are coming soon. And as you’ve probably heard, Google also introduced its universal commerce platform to, quote, “standardize how businesses connect with AI agents across the entire shopping journey.”
That’s powerful. It might get expensive for you, too.
Now, Srinivasan’s blog post and Google’s earning call ignored at least one big wild card that we want to an eye on, that you want to keep an eye on. I haven’t seen anything where Google tells us how much of its ads revenue came from AI Overviews or AI Mode.
They also haven’t told us how often searchers see AI Overviews or explicitly select AI Mode where they click the link to go into AI Mode. Google’s earnings release claimed that its Gemini app has more than 750 million monthly active users. And though sources vary on this, it’s likely that ChatGPT is somewhere in the rough ballpark of maybe one billion monthly active users. I’d call that a win in OpenAI’s favor at the moment, but not a massive one, not one that Google can’t overcome in time.
I strongly suspect that AI Overviews and AI Mode are bigger than both of those, really, and very possibly bigger than both of them combined.
We know that Google gets in the ballpark of maybe five trillion searches every year. If we just straight line that, that means they’re getting around 417 billion monthly searches. And given that most users search between three and four times per day, some quick back of the envelope math suggests that Google search has somewhere between three-and-a-half billion and 4.6 billion monthly active users. Though the numbers on this are a bit sketchy, AI Overviews appear somewhere around 40 to 60% of the time on searches.
Again, it seems most likely given these numbers that that’s the people’s most common source of AI interactions. We just need Google to confirm that. I’d surely like it if they would.
Now, it’s possible that the numbers are worse than they’d like, and that’s why they haven’t said anything yet. It’s also possible that they’re holding back on that until they’re ready to drop a huge number on us, like the five trillion number they shared. Time will tell, I guess. You can bet I’m going to be keeping an eye on that.
So the state of AI and digital, at least by Google’s reckoning, is great. It is huge. I think the financial data shows that they are undoubtedly winning the long term race. It definitely shows that they’re not losing it.
The last takeaway then is what you should do about it. And I’ve got a few quick points I’d like you to keep in mind.
First, remember that we’re moving from an era of card catalogs to an era of concierges. Search doesn’t point people to an answer. It tells them what the answer is. That’s the way search works in 2026.
I’d recommend that you regularly prompt your favorite AI to tell you about your brand. Better yet, prompt all of them. Try something along the lines of, “imagine that you’re a strategic advisor for the industry your business is in with a 180 IQ. Forget what you know about my relationship with my brand. Tell me the truth about this brand.”
See what those AIs say about you. Ask them to cite their sources. Those answers will help guide you to where you have a strong presence and where you have work to do.
Pay attention in particular to anything that these tools get wrong. Those are clear signs that the data about your brand in that area is either outdated or often non-existent. That provides you with a roadmap of what you need to improve on if you’re going to get recommended by the concierge.
Finally, Google makes money because they know what customers want and need. They’ve built product after product because customers literally told them what they wanted when they searched. That’s how the company became a verb. Customers don’t just search, they Google, right? That’s the idea behind your brand is the prompt in action.
Obviously your brand likely isn’t going to become a verb. I get that. I don’t want you to think like I’m living in some fantasy world where we’re all gonna get, you know, “Tim-ed” tomorrow.
But conducting a successful digital reset for your company is all about creating a brand experience that customers will ask for by name. And it’s much easier than you think.
Look at the amount of branded search traffic that you get today in Google Search Console or Bing Search Console. Clearly, some folks already know to ask for you by name. You’ve done the work already that makes that happen. Now it’s about building on that success for the next generation of customers.
If you get that right, you might not end up with $114 billion in quarterly revenue, sorry to say, but you’ll end up with a sustainable long-term business no matter where your customers ask for you. And I think that’s a takeaway we all can live with.
So the final takeaway here isn’t that Google is too big to beat, they’re not too big to compete with. It’s that the rules of the game have shifted some. We’ve moved from a world where you need to just show up in a card catalog to a world where you need to convince a concierge that you’re the right choice for your customers. A successful digital reset isn’t about fighting machines. It’s about ensuring your brand signal is clear enough so that the machines find you when your customers need you.
If this episode helped you cut through the noise a bit, please do me a favor. Send it to one colleague who is currently staring at their 2026 budget, wondering what to do next.
You can find the show notes and the full archive of these shows at TimPeter.com/podcasts. And if you’re ready to move beyond Big Tech, my book, Digital Reset, provides the roadmap to reclaim your demand. You’ll find the link in the show notes.
Thanks so much for listening. I genuinely appreciate you. Until next time, please be well, be safe, and be excellent to each other. I’ll see you soon.
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