20VC: Sam Altman on The Trajectory of Model Capability Improvements: Will Scaling Laws Continue | Semi-Conductor Supply Chains | What Startups Will be Steamrolled by OpenAI and Where is Opportunity

Matt Grimm is the Co-Founder and Chief Operating Officer of Anduril Industries, an American defense technology company that specializes in advanced autonomous systems. To date, Anduril has raised over $3.7BN with the latest round pricing the company at a whopping $14BN. Before Anduril, Matt was a Principal at Mithril Capital Management alongside Peter Thiel. Before Mithril, Matt was an early hire at Palantir, where he was deployed to both Iraq and Afghanistan to ensure U.S. forces had the best technology for the mission.                             In Today’s Episode with Matt Grimm We Discuss: 1. China/Taiwan, Ukraine/Russia & Israel/Gaza: How will a Trump administration change US foreign policy and approach to conflict? Will China invade Taiwan? What does Matt expect to see happen there? Will Trump put an end to the war in Ukraine? What will be the outcome? Is Israel wrong to defend itself in the way it has? How will the situation in Gaza be resolved? 2. The Future of War: What will war look like in the future? How is software and autonomy changing the world of war?  Why does the incentive structure of governments buying military equipment need to change around the world? Will we see a world of robodogs fighting on battlefields? What does weaponry of the future look like? 3. Are We In a Defence Bubble: With the massive increase in funding to defence companies, does Matt think we are in a defence bubble? What does Matt believe all investors should know about the defence industry before they make investments in the space? What should defence founders at the early stage know about building a defence company at scale? What changes? Who will be the buyer for the many defence companies that have raised early rounds of funding and go out of business?  4. Matt Grimm: AMA: Does money make you happy? What is the biggest luxury purchase you have made? Should TikTok be banned in the US? What would Matt do today if he knew he would not fail?

Sam Altman is the CEO of OpenAI, one of the most important companies in history. OpenAI is on a mission to ensure that artificial general intelligence benefits all of humanity. Prior to OpenAI, Sam was the President of Y Combinator and an angel investor in Stripe, Airbnb, Reddit and Instacart.                                           15 Questions with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman: 1. Will the trajectory of model capability improvement keep going at the same rate as it has been? 2. When did Sam doubt the continuance of scaling laws most? What has been the hardest technical research challenge OpenAI have overcome? 3. How worried is Sam about semiconductor supply chains and international tensions around them?  4. What is Sam’s biggest worry today? How has it changed over the last 12 months and 5 years? 5. In what ways does Sam feel he was and is unprepared for the role of CEO of OpenAI? 6. Was Masa Son right to suggest that $9TRN of value will be created every year by AI? 7. Why does Sam disagree with Larry Ellison’s statement that it will cost $100BN to enter the foundation model race? 8. Was Keith Rabois right that the best way to build companies is to hire under 30s?  9. What unmade decision weighs on Sam’s mind most often? 10. What is Sam most grateful to Y Combinator for?  11. What would Sam build if he were a 23 year old starting today with the foundational AI technology that is already in place? 12. What should startups not try and build as OpenAI will steamroll them? What should they try and build where OpenAI will not go? 13. What does Sam believe is the most exciting use of agents that he has not seen created yet? 14. How does Sam believe that human potential is most wasted today? 15. Who does Sam most respect in the world of AI today? Why them?    

Vlad Tenev is a Co-Founder and CEO of Robinhood, the commission free stock trading and investing app with a market cap today of $20.7BN. Over the incredible 11 year journey Vlad has raised over $5BN from some of the world’s best investors including Sequoia, a16z, DST, Ribbit and Index. Before Robinhood, Vlad started two finance companies in New York City.  In Today’s Episode with Vlad Tenev We Discuss:  1. Surviving a Scandal: The Gamestop Saga: What was the single hardest element of the sage for Vlad? What did the sage teach Vlad about how to tell stories effectively? What did Vlad not do in the period that he wishes he had of done? What did he do that he wishes he had not done? What advice does Vlad have for any founder going into a crisis? 2. Founder Mode and The Biggest BS Myths of Leadership: How does Vlad analyse and assess Paul Graham’s “Founder Mode”? Where is Founder mode right? Where is it dangerous? What canonical leadership statements and lessons does Vlad most disagree with? How has Vlad changed most significantly as a leader? 3. 8x $100M Revenue Lines: Scaling a Juggernaut: What have been the single biggest challenges of scaling 8 lines of revenue each with over $100M in them? What have been Vlad’s biggest lessons on when and how to release new products? Why did Vlad decide to abandon the Europe launch? Was it right with the benefit of hindsight? What did Vlad not invest in with Robinhood that he wishes he had of done?  

Karri Saarinen is the Co-Founder and CEO of Linear. The company has raised from some of the best in the business including Sequoia and Accel. Before founding Linear, Karri was the principal designer at Airbnb and the founding designer at Coinbase.  10 Lessons with One of Silicon Valley’s Most In-Demand Founders: How to Become a Master Fundraiser: Why does Karri believe it is BS advice that founders should “always be raising”? What is Karri’s biggest advice to founders on minimising dilution? What do most founders think they know about fundraising but do not? What is the best way to put your VCs to work? How can you give them homework to do? What has been the single best VC meeting Karri has had? What has been the worst VC meeting? Product and Growth: What does Karri mean when he says “founder must focus on quality growth over hypergrowth?” How does Karri advise founders on how soon to release and monetise their first product? Wait for platform ready or ship more feature products and monetise? What have been the single biggest product lessons for Karri from Airbnb and Coinbase? What are the most commons ways that growth plateaus? What breaks first? Karri AMA: Brian Armstrong or Brian Chesky; who would you invest in first? Would you sell Linear today for $3BN in cash? What do you know now that you wish you had known when you started? What did you believe that you now no longer believe?  

Daniel Khachab is the co-founder and CEO of Choco. Today, Choco’s AI platform facilitates half of all food traded in major cities like New York, Paris, London, and Berlin, cutting food waste and streamlining distribution. Since its founding in 2018, Choco has raised $330 million from Bessemer, Coatue (its first European investment), and Insight, reaching unicorn status within 2.5 years. Previously, Daniel was the youngest Managing Director at Rocket Internet, where he oversaw growth across Latin America, Southeast Asia, Australia, and the Middle East.                                     From Seed to $1BN in 30 Months: 1. We Killed a $BN SaaS Business to be AI First: Why does Daniel believe that SaaS is dead? What does an AI-first company mean?  Why does Daniel believe AI-first companies will win the next 10 years? What foundation models does Daniel and Choco use today? How has the cost of using different models changed? What categories are vulnerable to being attacked with vertical products from the foundation model providers? 2. Europe is F*******: Why and What To Do: Why does Daniel believe Europe is at a massive disadvantage in the next 10 years of AI? Chips: What can Europe do to encourage chip production and manufacturing to take place on European soil? Energy: What can European governments do to encourage energy providers and new forms of renewable energy to innovate to provide the energy AI needs? Talent: Why does Daniel believe AI talent is the hardest problem that Europe faces? What can governments in EU do to resolve this problem? 3. Lessons Scaling to $1BN in 30 Months: Does Daniel regret raising at a $1.1BN valuation?  Why did he throw a unicorn party with the round? Why does he regret it so much? What did Daniel spend money on that he wish he had not spent money on? What did Daniel not spend money on that with the benefit of hindsight, they should have spent money on? When your competition raises a lot of funding, does that mean you should also?  

Mark Goldberg is a Managing Partner and Co-Founder at Chemistry, a $350M fund announced just yesterday with the mission to lead the best seed and Series A rounds. Before Chemistry, Mark was a Partner at Index Ventures, where he led early stage investments in Plaid, Bridge, Pilot, Anrok and Persona. Prior to Index Ventures, Mark was one of the first business hires at Dropbox. In Today’s Episode with Mark Goldberg We Discuss: 1. The Truth About Multi-Stage Firms: Why are portfolio services there to help the investing partners and not the founders? What are the most broken elements within a multi-stage firm? How does decision-making break down in large partnerships? When is the right time to work with multi-stage firms? When is not? 2. From Boutique High Margins to Commoditised Low Margins:  With the immense amount of cash that has entered VC, will returns simply get worse? Who will be the winners in the next 10 years of venture? Who will be the losers? What can they do today to change this? What element of the future of venture are not enough people spending time on? 3. Lessons from Leading Unicorn Company Rounds: What happens to all the unicorns with insanely high prices they cannot grow into? What has been Mark’s biggest hit? What did he learn? What has been his biggest miss? How did that change his go-forward approach? Does Mark agree that 90% of VC do not add value?    

AJ Tennant is the Vice President of Sales & Success at Glean, Glean has more than 20x'd its revenue and 100x'd its user base in the just two and a half years he's been there. Before Glean, AJ had incredible runs at Slack and Facebook. At Slack, AJ helped grow revenue from $6 million to more than $1 billion.  In Today’s Episode with AJ Tennant We Discuss: 1. How to Sell AI Tools in 2024: Are we still in the experimental budget phase for AI? How does selling AI tools differ to selling traditional SaaS? What are enterprises biggest concerns when it comes to adopting AI tools? What buzzwords get enterprises most excited in the sales process? Will we see a massive churn problem when the first renewal cycle for many of these AI products comes? 2. Outbound, Discounting, Closing: Is outbound dead in 2024? What does no one do that everyone should do? How does AJ approach discounting? Biggest lessons and advice? What can sales teams do to create a sense of urgency in a sales cycle? How does AJ do deal reviews and post-mortems? What is the difference between good and bad post-mortems? 3. How to Master Customer Success: What are the biggest mistakes founders make today in managing their CS teams? Should CS be compensated for upsell? How should the comp structure of CS teams change? What can be done to create a good handoff experience for the customer when handing from AE to CS? What are the most common ways CS teams break over time? 4. Hiring the Best Sales Teams: How does AJ structure the hiring process for all new sales hires? What questions does AJ always need to ask when hiring sales reps? What are clear signs of outperformers when hiring new reps? Does AJ give candidates a take-home assignment? What does he want to see from them?    

Mamoon Hamid is a General Partner @ Kleiner Perkins and one of the greatest venture investors of our time. In the past, Mamoon has led rounds in Figma, Slack, Rippling, Intercom, Glean and Box. Prior to joining Kleiner Perkins, Mamoon was a Co-Founder of Social Capital, and prior to that a Partner at U.S. Venture Partners (USVP).  In Today’s Episode with Mamoon Hamid We Discuss:  1. The Greatest Venture Deal of All Time: Figma or Slack: What is Mamoon’s highest returning deal? What did Mamoon see in Dylan and Figma when they had no revenue and very little user data? What compelled Mamoon to write Stewart the check with Slack? What did he not see with Slack that he should have seen? 2. Taking Control of the Great Brand in Venture: Kleiner Perkins: Is it true that Kleiner approached Mamoon and gave him the keys to the Kleiner kingdom? How did it go down? Will Kleiner go back to having multiple products, large growth funds, international funds? What does Mamoon want Kleiner to be in 5 years? What was the hardest element of the transition into Kleiner? What did Mamoon not know that he wishes he had known? 3. Becoming a Generational Defining Investor: Market, founder, product, how does Mamoon rank them 1-3? How has Mamoon changed most significantly as an investor? What does he know now that he wishes he had known when he became a VC 19 years ago? What is his biggest loss? How did it shape his mindset and go forward investing approach? 4. AI Supercycle: The Greatest Time to Invest Where does Mamoon believe the value will accrue in this wave of AI? Where are many investors spending a lot of time but Mamoon believes is not worthy of that time?  Will scaling laws continue? Have we ever seen an incumbent set spend like this incumbent class? How does that change the game for VCs?    

Antoine Le Nel is the Chief Growth and Marketing Officer at Revolut, one of the fastest growing fintechs on the planet. Prior to Revolut, Antoine spent an incredible 7 years at King (Makers of Candy Crush) overseeing continuous expansion of the world's most famous mobile game as VP of Growth.  10 Questions with Revolut’s Chief Growth Officer:  Why does Antoine believe that the best product and growth teams do not need to do A/B tests? Why does Antoine believe the best growth teams do not believe in anything? What growth tactics have worked best for Revolut? What did they learn? What have been the biggest growth flops? How did that change their approach?  Why does Antoine believe localisation in product is BS and overrated?  Why does CAC never come up at Revolut? Why do they not believe it is a metric to focus on? What metrics do they focus on instead? What does Antoine mean when he says “growth is a bidding war”? How does one win the “bidding war” today? Why does Antoine believe the best growth teams focus on optimisations and 1% gains not moving the needle for a company? What are the single biggest mistakes growth teams make today? What used to work that no longer works? What growth tactic is most effective but also most under-utilised? How can startups take advantage of this?  

Zach Perret is the CEO and Co-Founder of Plaid, a technology platform reshaping financial services. To date, Zach has raised over $734M for Plaid from the likes of NEA, Spark, GV, Coatue and a16z, to name a few. Today, thousands of companies including the largest fintechs, several of the Fortune 500, and many of the largest banks use Plaid. In addition, Zach is also a Co-Founder of Mischief, an early-stage venture fund in San Francisco.  In Today’s Episode with Zach Perret We Discuss: 1. Founder Mode: Why “Founder Mode” will be the most dangerous blog post written in the last decade for founders? What is most misleading about it? What are “grinder problems”? Why does Zach believe that grinder problems are the best problems for startups to try and solve? Why does Zach believe that OKRs are BS and should be removed? What should be used instead? 2. Lessons from Raising $734M for Plaid: What is the worst advice that VCs give that most founders take? Why does Zach believe that angel investing is more distracting than helpful for founders to do? What are the pros of investing alongside running a company? Why does Zach encourage founders to raise money as infrequently as possible? What does this mean for the size and price of rounds Zach thinks we should see occur? 3. The $5BN Exit and the $13.4BN Round: Why did Zach turn down the $5BN exit to Visa? Was it the right choice? Does Zach regret raising at such a high price of $13.4BN when the exit did not happen? Would Zach sell the company today for $13.4BN if offered it? What did Zach not do that he wish he had done? What did he do that he wishes he had not done?