Why Trump’s Mega-Bill Could Blow Up on MAGA

Yesterday, it emerged that the Trump team has been asking its (former) allies Japan and Australia a very strange question - demanding clarity from them on a subject for which the US has a policy not to provide any such clarity. It is, of course, the question of what would they do should China invade Taiwan. But is it really asking? Or is it creating the impression of preparation as part of an operation to dissuade Xi Jinping from even considering doing such a thing ... at least until President Trump is no longer in office? Let's discuss.

Canada thought it was making good progress in negotiations with the Trump team - then he announced even higher tariffs against it. Vietnam thought it had agreed a deal with a much lower tariff figure, but then Trump simply announced a higher one. The first countries through the gate are finding - and the rest of the world is noting - that nothing Trump or his team say can be trusted, that any deal can simply be changed at a whim, and this is not a serious process. So what does the world do about it? Let's discuss.

The US President just announced a massive 50% tariff on Brazil. Nothing to do with the usual excuses - trade deficits - the US has a trade surplus with Brazil. No, instead he is punishing the country for the fact that it is prosecuting former strong man authoritarian president Bolsonaro - one of the leaders Trump saw as 'one of us'. Why is it prosecuting him? Well, he denied the election result that he lost in 2022, and tried to instigate a coup. No idea why Trump might relate to such deeds. But let's discuss anyway.

Trump has muttered, he has grumbled, he has occasionally threatened, but never has there been the slightest sign that he would actually take action of any sort against Vladimir Putin's Russia over its war against Ukraine. But now it suddenly seems as though that might be about to change. Not only did Trump ensure the weapons flow to Ukraine restarted, but he has strongly hinted his interest in endorsing the radical sanctions bill that has been drawn up for just this moment in Congress. If passed, it would have a huge impact on Russia's economy, not to mention on China, India and Turkey if they keep buying Russia's oil. Let's discuss.

Another day, another round of tariff dramas. Trump revealed the new tariff rates he was 'granting' to various countries via letter, along with a new deadline for those countries to come to a deal with him before the rates come into force. It's just another way of seeking to bully the world into agreeing to give one-sided deals to the most powerful country in the world, and to string out the process and the uncertainty, making the whole thing about one man. But while countries are jumping through hoops to get the least worst outcome, the extortion and the drama are starting to backfire. Let's discuss.

So Elon Musk is launching a new political party in the US. And former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is doing something similar in the UK, albeit with a very different political bent. And you're adding those to the existing UK 'upstart' party Reform UK, which is already doing extremely well in the polls. But wait ... aren't both of these countries famously and rigidly two party systems? Aren't third parties always doomed to obscurity, by dint of the brutal logic of the electoral system? Yes, that's the conventional wisdom. But a great deal is changing in politics right now, thanks to our populist moment. And maybe this is going to turn out to be a sea change that shakes those big two party establishments to their core. Let's discuss.

China has had a public line on Ukraine for the last three years - studied neutrality that didn't entirely fool anybody. Well, yesterday it blew that up with a frank admission to a top level delegation from the EU that left them astonished. Not for the reality of it, but for the fact that they would even admit it. Because they said yes - China will not allow Russia to be beaten in the Ukraine war. And the reason why not? Mostly, it has to do with Donald Trump. Let's discuss.

For an administration that talks a lot about free speech, President Trump sure seems to sue a lot of news media companies for reporting on things he wishes they wouldn't. He also is suing a lot of social media companies. To all appearances, these are about chilling free speech, while also extorting significant sums of money for Trump's 'presidential library'. It's not even subtle, but we're getting to the stage now where it's starting to become normalised and accepted as a cost of doing business under the new regime. This would be a big mistake. Let's discuss.

It came out of the blue, with all the NATO allies of Ukraine having thought they'd done a great job of keeping Trump on side at last week's NATO summit. Suddenly, they were learning that Trump had paused weapons already agreed to be sent to Ukraine. Not only that, but Trump was suddenly taking a direct call with Vladimir Putin to discuss all the possibilities of how they could work together. This in contrast with how he is ratcheting up the pressure on China, and increasingly demanding of the same allies that they distance themselves from Xi Jinping. Just another day in Trump world. Let's discuss.

The controversial Trump Budget Mega-Bill squeaked its way through the Senate, thanks to the casting vote of JD Vance. And now it has come back to the House somewhat changed from how it was when it left. Specifically, with more debt loaded into it. And more severe cuts to Medicaid. Democrats are convinced this bill is going to come back to haunt the Republicans, and by all accounts Republicans fear that will be the case as well. How far might that go? And could it be the act of self-sabotage that destroys MAGA's project before it can get fully embedded? Let's discuss.