Trump vs China - The Rest Of The World Is Caught In The Crossfire

We knew that Trump had been somewhat swayed by Russia's Vladimir Putin in their phone call last Thursday, but it has just been revealed today just how much Trump threw Putin talking points verbatim at Ukraine's President Zelensky when they met at the Oval Office on Friday. All the progress of recent weeks, where Trump had become more positive towards Ukraine, seem to have been reversed. Instead, Trump was going further than ever in demanding Zelensky accept Russia's terms for ending the war - in other words, surrender. And this is the backdrop for the proposed Trump / Putin summit to take place in Budapest. Let's discuss.

President Trump is used to getting his way - with just about anyone (except possibly Vladimir Putin, and Xi Jinping). In particular, he's used to being able to threat tariffs or other measures and have most of the countries of the world falling in line, doing whatever he demands in order to avoid his wrath. But this week, the world is about to agree a measure that introduces a global tax - and even worse than that, a global tax relating to climate action. Trump's America has bellowed 'no', and is threatening all sorts of reprisals if countries vote for this measure. And right now, it seems that mostly they are ignoring him and intending to go ahead anyway. This is ... interesting. Let's discuss.

While Trump was being treated as an all-conquering hero in the Middle East, he had hanging over him the one fight he just realised he can't win - his renewed trade blow-up with Xi Jinping's China. Having threatened yet another bombastic massive tariff barrage in response to China's control of rare earth minerals, he quickly started to backpedal. Almost as though he remembered what happened the last time they went that route. The thing is that China's moves now are affecting the whole world - and China and the US are both pushing other countries to pick a side. This is a tricky situation - let's discuss.

Let's say that the 2028 Presidential Election goes ahead, and Trump has imploded over the course of his term, so that regardless of their various attempts to weight the scales in their favour, MAGA Republicans lose. The new incoming administration is going to face a remarkably transformed America. And they will have to have a very clear idea of the spirit, and the detail, of how they hope to move forward. They will need to do so knowing that tailwinds for Trump will turn into headwinds for them. And there will be powerful enemies, and difficult temptations. Do they need their own 'Project 2029'? And what will it need to cover, if so? Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week, China stuns the West and infuriates Trump by expanding its tight control over more of its rare earth minerals - with particular implications for Western militaries. Trump's many court cases are starting to get more and more pushback from judges exasperated with the administration's arrogance and incompetence, just as another vengeance indictment is brought against Letitia James. The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize is awarded, which for some reason gets a lot more attention this year than usual. Also, I answer a Patreon question on Europe and Trump if Russia loses the war. Let's dive in.

It may only be the first part that will be implemented, but even so the Trump peace deal for Gaza represents - against all the odds - a real breakthrough. Both parties have swallowed a starting position that crosses their previous red lines. But while families are anxiously awaiting the release of hostages, and everyone is celebrating as though peace has finally been delivered, the truth is that there is a lot more hard work to be done. And there's nothing in the somewhat juvenile posturing right now that suggests that here is an administration equal to the task. Let's discuss.

The US / EU trade deal was always tricky - within hours of it being signed the two sides were giving radically different interpretations of what it covered. Well, now - unsurprisingly - President Trump is back and he has the EU's regulations in his sights. Specifically, any regulations that get applied to American companies, such as the tech giants. He has environmental rules in his sights, as well as privacy and anti-trust laws. He's doing it because the EU demonstrated weakness in negotiating the deal. The question is - will they now push back against the demands, at the risk of losing the deal they thought was already in the bag? Let's discuss.

French President Emmanuel Macron's fifth prime minister Sebastien Lecornu resigned after just a couple of weeks in post, as it became obvious that the task was simply impossible. This leaves France in a political mess, largely because of its ongoing economic mess. However, this goes way beyond France. Arguably, Macron's France is just the advance guard for the political upheavals that are coming to all Western democratic countries - and soon. Sounds like something we should discuss!

Judge Diane Goodstein ruled against the Trump administration recently, and got numerous death threats for her pains. Two days ago, her house burned down. At this point, there is no evidence whatsoever that this was a deliberately caused event, but it is obvious - at a time when the rhetoric against judges who impede President Trump has been vitriolic - that it could be the latest incident in the run of political violence incidents. Even if it's not, it's highly instructive just how America has been responding during the early hours when not much is known for sure. Let's discuss.

The Trump 20-point peace deal for Gaza has been welcomed by all the people worldwide who routinely flatter Trump at every opportunity - but also by others, such as the Arab states who have significant influence with Hamas. So should we be optimistic then, with everyone talking about how all the hostages will be freed within days, and this could finally be the big shift - Israel will withdraw, Gaza will be at peace, an oversight body will begin reconstruction leading a pathway to future Palestinian self-rule? Well, not so fast. Because amongst all that optimism, there seems to be rather a large pinch of wishful thinking going on. Let's discuss.