The Orange Variable

Alf and Brent are back to discuss the Bessent buyback plan and its impact on markets. The duo focuses on gold, the long-end and the USD as potential release valves. The discussion then moves to two macro idiosyncratic ideas.

In this episode, Alf and Brent talk about the Fed's likely reaction function to incoming data and the Bessent/Japan accord on the JPY. The duo then discusses one of the trickiest questions for macro PMs: when to use options, and how to size them?

Alf and Brent discuss the significant market reaction to Warsh's press conference: the Fed handed over the keys to the bond market, and now Bond Vigilantes are in charge until data comes in to set the direction straight for everyone. How to handle such a market environment?

Brent and Alf discuss the n-th injection of the Orange Variable in markets: Trump decided to escalate again with Iran, and even suggested the ceasefire might be over altogether. The duo discusses how to approach these injections of uncertainty, and what are the best trading and risk management frameworks to deploy here.

Alf and Brent discuss the major market shifts since the Warsh press conference. Is this a big macro shift or just a mini-trend that will ultimately slow down or even reverse?

To reach out to Alf: [email protected] (or Alfonso Peccatiello on BBG) To reach out to Brent: [email protected] (or Brent Donnelly on BBG) In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss the best risk/reward ways to position for the macro environment ahead of us. They then deep dive into option structures around gold, and the question of increasing sample size of trades to reduce PnL variance against the risk of downgrading your edge and expected value per trade when the sample size increases.

To reach out to Alf: [email protected] (or Alfonso Peccatiello on BBG) To reach out to Brent: [email protected] (or Brent Donnelly on BBG) In this episode, Alf and Brent focus on various aspects of their investment/risk management process. They discuss several ideas and how to implement them according to their framework: when to use options? How to think about convexity?

To reach out to Alf: [email protected] To reach out to Brent: [email protected] Alf and Brent refresh their macro and trading frameworks on the basis of new info: the Iran/US MoU in negotiation phase, how the world might look like when Hormuz reopens, the Japanese FX intervention and more.

To reach out to Alf: [email protected] To reach out to Brent: [email protected] Alf and Brent discuss the framework for an Iran-US deal, and how to approach rates, currencies and equity markets for the foreseeable future.

To reach out to Alf: [email protected] To reach out to Brent: [email protected] Alf and Brent are back discussing frameworks to approach this market as a short-term oriented trader or as a long-term focused macro investor.