Talking Shop with Rubin Miller (EP.238)

You don't have time to sift through endless financial content. That's why I do it for you. Get my top 5 must-read articles every week in a quick, easy-to-digest email. Sign up for my newsletter. -----  In this Talking Shop episode, I sit down with Rubin Miller for an unscripted conversation about why market forecasts fail, how advisors actually set return assumptions, and where investors most often misunderstand risk. We move freely from prediction season and capital market assumptions to investor behavior, bonds, and cash—focusing less on what markets will do next and more on how to build a plan you can stick with when narratives get loud. Listen and learn: ► Why short-term market predictions distract from what really drives long-term outcomes ► How ranges and probabilities lead to better financial plans than point forecasts ► What most investors get wrong about bonds, cash, and "playing it safe" ► Why the biggest investing mistakes come from narratives, not numbers   Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.   [02:00] – Market Forecasting and "Prediction Season": Why One-Year Outlooks Mislead [03:10] – Financial Planning Return Assumptions: Using Ranges and Probabilities (Not Point Estimates) [06:41] – Portfolio Construction Basics: Stocks Are Stocks, Bonds Are Tools [15:56] – Setting Investor Expectations: What Forecasts Can and Can't Do [21:01] – Behavioral Finance in Real Time: Volatility vs the Narrative Investors Fear [23:45] – Market Timing Bias: "I Knew This Would Happen" and Why It's Dangerous [29:39] – Risk Management: Probability vs Magnitude (How Investors Blow Up a Good Plan) [32:21] – Bond Strategy: Building a Portfolio You Can Stick With (Not the Highest Return) [38:30] – Cash Management: Ultra-Short Bond Funds, HYSAs, and the 2022 Hangover   Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)   Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment. The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client. References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Please see disclosures here.

You don't have time to sift through endless financial content. That's why I do it for you. Get my top 5 must-read articles every week in a quick, easy-to-digest email. Sign up for my newsletter. -----  In this Talking Shop episode, I sit down with Ashby Daniels for an unscripted, behind-the-scenes conversation about investing, markets, and the behavioral mistakes that quietly derail long-term results. We move freely—from why simplicity keeps winning, to how investors misread risk, to what actually matters when markets feel noisy—without a single hot take in sight. If you've ever wondered how two investment professionals talk when there's no agenda and no sales pitch, this is it.   Listen now and learn: ► Why "beating the game" in investing rarely looks like working harder or knowing more ► How narratives—not numbers—drive most investor mistakes during market downturns ► What gets misunderstood about bonds, diversification, and "playing it safe" ► How experienced investors think differently about wealth, risk, and time   Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.   [04:15] – Nick Murray's Lasting Influence on Long-Term Investing and Market Thinking [05:45] – Why Investing Education Should Be Short, Simple, and Actionable [08:00] – Challenging Conventional Market Wisdom: Why Time Beats Tactics [09:45] – The Dave & Buster's Investing Lesson: How to "Beat the Game" [15:30] – Everybody Ought to Be Rich: The Power of Long-Term Stock Market Returns [18:30] – The Market Portfolio Explained: Stocks, Bonds, and Investor Distractions [21:15] – Market Corrections and Bear Markets: Why Trees Don't Grow to the Sky [24:30] – All-Stock Portfolios and Risk: When Equities Make Sense [29:45] – Investor Panic Isn't About Volatility—It's About Stories and Expectations [32:45] – Bond Investing, "Safety," and the Hidden Risk to Purchasing Power [35:45] – Private Equity, Gold, and Crypto: What Investors Get Wrong [41:30] – The $100 Million Thought Experiment: Getting Wealthy vs Staying Wealthy [46:00] – Why Timeless Investing Principles Still Win Over Time Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)     Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment. The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client. References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Please see disclosures here.

Get updates for my new book: https://Theperfectportfoliobook.com -----  Most people think "risk" means volatility. In this episode, I define risk the way long-term investors actually experience it: the risk of failing to fund your life. Then we turn that definition into a practical plan–choosing a stock/bond mix you can live with, deciding what goes in each sleeve, and rebalancing with rules instead of gut feel.   Listen now and learn: ► A clearer way to think about risk before you pick an allocation ► The two-part test that determines your stock/bond mix ► How cash fits (and where it doesn't) when you're building a long-term portfolio ► A simple rebalancing approach you can follow without overthinking it   Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions. Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)     Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment. The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client. References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Please see disclosures here.

Get updates for my new book: https://Theperfectportfoliobook.com  -----  Bond ladders, bond funds, money markets—if those words have you second‑guessing your plan, this episode will clear the fog. Inspired by questions from my Perfect Portfolio book‑updates list, I explain why many "bond" debates are actually cash management problems in disguise—and how to build a simple system that helps you stay disciplined when markets get ugly. Listen now and learn: ► How to tell—quickly—whether you're making a portfolio decision or a cash decision ► The "comfort trade" most investors accept with bond ladders (often without realizing it) ► A simple bucket framework for protecting near‑term spending without over‑hoarding cash ► The one practical maintenance habit that keeps your plan from falling apart during downturns   Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.   Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)   Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment. The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client. References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Please see disclosures here.  

Get updates for my new book: https://Theperfectportfoliobook.com  -----  Index funds are often pitched as the no-brainer choice for long-term investors—but are they the only rules worth following? In this episode, I use one of my favorite analogies to explain how indexing and factor investing evolved, how they differ, and how to decide which mix fits your goals and behavior. Listen now and learn: ► Why indexing became the "radar gun" of investing—and what it actually guarantees you ► The key trade-offs baked into market-cap-weighted index funds that most investors never think about ► What "factors" like value, size, profitability, and momentum really are (in plain English) ► A simple framework to know whether you should stick with plain indexing or consider adding factor tilts   Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.   Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)   Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment. The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client. References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Please see disclosures here.

You don't have time to sift through endless financial content. That's why I do it for you. Get my top 5 must-read articles every week in a quick, easy-to-digest email. Sign up for my newsletter. -----  Most of us feel like we "own the market" with a U.S. stock index and a core bond fund. But the real global market portfolio — the value of every investable asset in the world — looks very different. And once you see that full picture, it changes how you think about international stocks, alternatives, and how far you may be drifting from the true market mix. In this episode, I break down what the world portfolio actually holds today, how it's shifted over time, and how to use it as a guide for building a simple, durable portfolio. Listen now and learn: ► What's really inside the global market portfolio and how big each slice actually is ► Why stocks and bonds still dominate despite all the attention on alternatives ► Why a clean 60/40 mix can often beat the "own-everything" approach on a risk-adjusted basis ► How the U.S. became such an outsized share of global markets and what that means for diversification ► A simple framework for deciding when to add assets like real estate, gold, private markets, or crypto   Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.  Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠) Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment. The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client. References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Please see disclosures here.

You don't have time to sift through endless financial content. That's why I do it for you. Get my top 5 must-read articles every week in a quick, easy-to-digest email. Sign up for my newsletter. -----  Dimensional Fund Advisors' Marlena Lee joins Peter to unpack the SEC's share class exemptive relief—the change that lets one portfolio be offered as both a mutual fund and an ETF.    Listen now and learn: ► Why one portfolio offered as both an ETF and a mutual fund is a game changer for investors ► How the cash-vs-basket plumbing drives taxes and who ends up with capital gains distributions ► Simple rules of thumb for choosing ETF or mutual fund when fees and tax efficiency are similar ► What to watch as managers add ETF share classes Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.   (00:00) Introduction (03:18) Why "share class exemptive relief" matters (and why investors should care) (05:37) How mutual funds and ETFs handle your money—and why that changes your taxes (10:26) Why the SEC's "exemptive relief" is a big deal: one portfolio, two doors—and better tax control (16:59) ETF vs. Mutual Fund: When Costs and Taxes Converge, Let Trading Style Decide (23:30) Not every fund should add an ETF share class—and why scale and long track records matter (33:34) SMAs vs. funds: when direct ownership adds real value Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠) Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment. The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client. References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Please see disclosures here.

Get an inside look at what's shaping my thinking. Bi-weekly, I share the top 5 investing and financial planning articles I'm reading—straight to your inbox. Sign up for my newsletter.  -----  In this rebroadcast, Peter sits in the guest chair to explain why he rarely recommends private markets—and the specific situations where they do belong. He lays out a clear filter built around liquidity, purpose, access, and behavior so you can decide whether private investments fit in your plan.    Listen now and learn: ► A simple decision framework for alternative investments ► Why Peter is more concerned with implementing a bad idea than missing out on a good one ► What makes venture capital investing hard for most investors ► The implications of more "democratized" alternative investment products   Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions. Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠) Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment. The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client. References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Please see disclosures here.

Your finances have layers—investments, taxes, planning for the future. If you want a second set of eyes, Peter opened up a few spots for a quick, no-obligation call. Grab yours now. -----  Equity compensation can turbocharge wealth—and taxes. Brooklyn Fi managing partner John Owens joins Peter to share a clear year-end playbook for RSUs, ISOs/NQSOs, and ESPPs, including how to avoid AMT surprises, right-size withholding, and unwind concentrated stock positions.  Listen now and learn: ► A simple order of operations for year-end equity comp decisions ► RSU withholding pitfalls (and how to fix them before April)  ► ISO/AMT basics and why late-year exercises can backfire ► How to build a rules-based plan, use 10b5-1 mechanics, and when donor-advised funds make sense   Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.   (00:00) Introduction (03:15) A hard-won lesson: when AMT grows larger than your stock (and what to do next) (04:21) Don't start equity planning on December 15 (really) (05:19) First move: build an inventory and triage the quick wins (08:18) AMT 101 for ISO holders: the "parallel" tax you don't want to pay (10:47) RSUs: why 22% withholding often sets up an April tax bill (12:24) ESPPs: capture the discount, control concentration (14:55) Designing a rules-based sell plan to unwind concentration risk (18:11) The base rates on single stocks: why a diversification plan matters more than a "feel" (20:42) 10b5-1 plans: automate good behavior and expand your ability to sell (23:31) Charitable giving with concentrated stock: donor-advised funds and timing across 2025/2026 (26:11) Family gifting: UTMAs, kiddie tax, step-up in basis, and multi-generational choice (27:28) The year-end document checklist most people miss (29:17) When to hire help (and when not to) (31:19) Biggest year-end mistakes to avoid Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)   Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment. The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client. References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Please see disclosures here.

Want a peek behind the scenes? Get my top 5 must-read financial articles that keep me ahead on innovative planning and investment strategies—exclusive, curated, and straight to your inbox bi-weekly when you sign up for my newsletter. -----  Gold just cleared $4,000 an ounce while stocks hover near highs—a rare split-screen of optimism and caution. In this episode, I break down what's actually pushing gold up, stress-test its "safe haven" reputation, and evaluate whether it truly protects against inflation. We'll finish with a simple, rules-based way to decide if gold deserves a small place in a long-term portfolio—or none at all. Key takeaways: ► What's driving gold now: the role of central-bank buying, macro uncertainty, interest rates, and the dollar. ► Why "safe haven" isn't a free pass: what history says about mean reversion, drawdowns, and volatility. ► Inflation reality check: how stocks and real estate have delivered positive real returns when inflation is >4%—and why gold hasn't—plus when TIPS are the right hedge for specific future expenses. ► A practical allocation framework: when 0%, a small sleeve, or a strict 0–5% target makes sense—and how to set rebalancing rules so you can stick with the plan. Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.   Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)   Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment. The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client. References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Please see disclosures here.