Tyler Goodspeed: Why "Pattern-Seeking Mammals" Blame Bankers Instead of Locusts

Today on The Gist, ExxonMobil Chief Economist Tyler Goodspeed discusses his new book, Recession: The Real Reasons Economies Shrink and What to Do About It. Goodspeed argues that we fundamentally misunderstand economic busts. Because we are "pattern-seeking mammals," we try to frame recessions as the inevitable, moral punishments for greedy economic booms. But historically, economic downturns are actually driven by random, unpredictable shocks—from the 2001 dot-com bust to a literal plague of locusts in the 1870s. Plus, breaking down the recent federal court ruling striking down Donald Trump's executive order aimed at defunding NPR, and the painful irony of winning a First Amendment battle while still losing the cash. Produced by Corey Wara Video and Social Media by Geoff Craig Do you have questions or comments, or just want to say hello? Email us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected] For full Pesca content and updates, check out our website at https://www.mikepesca.com/⁠ For ad-free content or to become a Pesca Plus subscriber, check out ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribe.mikepesca.com/ For Mike's daily takes on Substack, subscribe to The Gist List https://mikepesca.substack.com/ Follow us on Social Media:⁠⁠⁠⁠ YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4_bh0wHgk2YfpKf4rg40_g⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram https://www.instagram.com/pescagist/ X https://x.com/pescami TikTok https://www.tiktok.com/@pescagist To advertise on the show, contact ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ or visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://advertising.libsyn.com/TheGist Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Zack Beauchamp on democratic resilience, the WhatsApp group that saved Brazil's Supreme Court, and why corruption in Congress can sometimes be a feature. Plus: Trump may end the Iran war with the Strait of Hormuz still closed — which is somehow worse than before it started. And the surprising history of "bimbo." Produced by Corey Wara Video and Social Media by Geoff Craig Do you have questions or comments, or just want to say hello? Email us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected] For full Pesca content and updates, check out our website at https://www.mikepesca.com/⁠ For ad-free content or to become a Pesca Plus subscriber, check out ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribe.mikepesca.com/ For Mike's daily takes on Substack, subscribe to The Gist List https://mikepesca.substack.com/ Follow us on Social Media:⁠⁠⁠⁠ YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4_bh0wHgk2YfpKf4rg40_g⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram https://www.instagram.com/pescagist/ X https://x.com/pescami TikTok https://www.tiktok.com/@pescagist To advertise on the show, contact ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ or visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://advertising.libsyn.com/TheGist Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Zack Beauchamp on democratic resilience, the WhatsApp group that saved Brazil's Supreme Court, and why corruption in Congress can sometimes be a feature. Plus: Trump may end the Iran war with the Strait of Hormuz still closed — which is somehow worse than before it started. And the surprising history of "bimbo." Produced by Corey Wara Video and Social Media by Geoff Craig Do you have questions or comments, or just want to say hello? Email us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected] For full Pesca content and updates, check out our website at https://www.mikepesca.com/⁠ For ad-free content or to become a Pesca Plus subscriber, check out ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribe.mikepesca.com/ For Mike's daily takes on Substack, subscribe to The Gist List https://mikepesca.substack.com/ Follow us on Social Media:⁠⁠⁠⁠ YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4_bh0wHgk2YfpKf4rg40_g⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram https://www.instagram.com/pescagist/ X https://x.com/pescami TikTok https://www.tiktok.com/@pescagist To advertise on the show, contact ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ or visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://advertising.libsyn.com/TheGist

Today on The Gist, The bizarre off-field behavior of Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua, who is facing questions (and a lawsuit) after biting a woman and hurling anti-Semitic slurs. Then, Vox's Zack Beauchamp joins the show to discuss his research on democratic resilience. Instead of just looking at how democracies die, Beauchamp analyzes countries like Brazil, Poland, and South Korea to learn how they actually survive, while comparing America's current trajectory to the "competitive authoritarianism" of Viktor Orban's Hungary. Plus, Donald Trump's supposedly agreed-upon 15-point peace plan with Iran, breaking down all the reasons why the entire negotiation might just be a figment of the President's imagination. Produced by Corey Wara Video and Social Media by Geoff Craig Do you have questions or comments, or just want to say hello? Email us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected] For full Pesca content and updates, check out our website at https://www.mikepesca.com/⁠ For ad-free content or to become a Pesca Plus subscriber, check out ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribe.mikepesca.com/ For Mike's daily takes on Substack, subscribe to The Gist List https://mikepesca.substack.com/ Follow us on Social Media:⁠⁠⁠⁠ YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4_bh0wHgk2YfpKf4rg40_g⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram https://www.instagram.com/pescagist/ X https://x.com/pescami TikTok https://www.tiktok.com/@pescagist To advertise on the show, contact ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ or visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://advertising.libsyn.com/TheGist Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It's the Saturday Show, bringing you one from the vault and one from the week. First, Mike pulls up a world-exclusive, posthumous interview with Nibbles, the ghost of Kristi Noem's late family goat, who finally gets to have his say. Then, in the Spiel of the week, Mike dissects the recent ouster of Corey Lewandowski and Kristi Noem from Homeland Security. He unpacks the allegations surrounding Lewandowski's evasion of DHS guardrails, as well as Noem's $200 Million horse-riding commercial—an expensive campaign that somehow included a $500 line item from a South Dakota magic shop. Produced by Corey Wara Video and Social Media by Geoff Craig Do you have questions or comments, or just want to say hello? Email us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected] For full Pesca content and updates, check out our website at https://www.mikepesca.com/⁠ For ad-free content or to become a Pesca Plus subscriber, check out ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribe.mikepesca.com/ For Mike's daily takes on Substack, subscribe to The Gist List https://mikepesca.substack.com/ Follow us on Social Media:⁠⁠⁠⁠ YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4_bh0wHgk2YfpKf4rg40_g⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram https://www.instagram.com/pescagist/ X https://x.com/pescami TikTok https://www.tiktok.com/@pescagist To advertise on the show, contact ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ or visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://advertising.libsyn.com/TheGist Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Harvard Kennedy School's Julia Minson joins to discuss her new book, How to Disagree Better, and why the goal of most arguments shouldn't be persuasion at all. She explains naive realism, the boomerang question trap, and why understanding where someone is coming from beats trying to change their mind. Plus, Anthropic wins in court and the Prairieland antifa trial ends in across-the-board terrorism convictions, a reminder that when the stakes are so high outrage is not a legal strategy. Produced by Corey Wara Video and Social Media by Geoff Craig Do you have questions or comments, or just want to say hello? Email us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected] For full Pesca content and updates, check out our website at https://www.mikepesca.com/⁠ For ad-free content or to become a Pesca Plus subscriber, check out ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribe.mikepesca.com/ For Mike's daily takes on Substack, subscribe to The Gist List https://mikepesca.substack.com/ Follow us on Social Media:⁠⁠⁠⁠ YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4_bh0wHgk2YfpKf4rg40_g⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram https://www.instagram.com/pescagist/ X https://x.com/pescami TikTok https://www.tiktok.com/@pescagist To advertise on the show, contact ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ or visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://advertising.libsyn.com/TheGist Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Today on a Not Even Mad edition of The Gist, Mike is joined by political scientist Yascha Mounk (The Good Fight) and Colin Cole, director of policy outreach and communications at More Equitable Democracy and host of The Future of Our Former Democracy, to fiercely debate whether adopting proportional representation would cure America's polarization or simply plunge the country into parliamentary chaos. The trio also tackles the stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations, analyzing the conflicting strategic goals between the U.S. and Israel, and Donald Trump's temptation to rely on swift military might to solve complex diplomatic issues. Plus, Mike opens with a reality check on the viral ICE airport detentions, and the panel airs their "Goat Grinders" regarding lazy political headlines, the intellectual cop-out of the word "problematic," and movie trailers that spoil the entire plot. Produced by Corey Wara Video and Social Media by Geoff Craig Do you have questions or comments, or just want to say hello? Email us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected] For full Pesca content and updates, check out our website at https://www.mikepesca.com/⁠ For ad-free content or to become a Pesca Plus subscriber, check out ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribe.mikepesca.com/ For Mike's daily takes on Substack, subscribe to The Gist List https://mikepesca.substack.com/ Follow us on Social Media:⁠⁠⁠⁠ YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4_bh0wHgk2YfpKf4rg40_g⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram https://www.instagram.com/pescagist/ X https://x.com/pescami TikTok https://www.tiktok.com/@pescagist To advertise on the show, contact ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ or visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://advertising.libsyn.com/TheGist Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Ben Ritz, of the Progressive Policy Institute, joins to discuss his Atlantic piece, "Democrats Learned the Wrong Lesson From 2024," and his argument that the party is drifting toward "slopulism." He explains why half-baked promises on taxes, deficits, and affordability may be politically tempting but fiscally hollow. Plus, Iran's reported response to a U.S. peace framework demands not just an end to hostilities but guarantees that war cannot simply be resumed under another name. Produced by Corey Wara Video and Social Media by Geoff Craig Do you have questions or comments, or just want to say hello? Email us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected] For full Pesca content and updates, check out our website at https://www.mikepesca.com/⁠ For ad-free content or to become a Pesca Plus subscriber, check out ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribe.mikepesca.com/ For Mike's daily takes on Substack, subscribe to The Gist List https://mikepesca.substack.com/ Follow us on Social Media:⁠⁠⁠⁠ YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4_bh0wHgk2YfpKf4rg40_g⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram https://www.instagram.com/pescagist/ X https://x.com/pescami TikTok https://www.tiktok.com/@pescagist To advertise on the show, contact ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ or visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://advertising.libsyn.com/TheGist Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Today on The Gist, comedy legend Larry Charles returns to discuss the fragile nature of comic genius, theorizing why Sacha Baron Cohen lost his "superpower" to the Hollywood bubble, how a rough Brooklyn upbringing prepared him for the life-threatening chaos of directing Borat, and why Seinfeld succeeded precisely because its creators didn't know the rules of sitcoms. Plus, in the Spiel, the cacocracy surrounding Corey Lewandowski and Kristi Noem's ouster from Homeland Security, marveling at Noem's $200,000 horse-riding commercial and a highly suspicious $500 line item from a South Dakota magic shop. Produced by Corey Wara Video and Social Media by Geoff Craig Do you have questions or comments, or just want to say hello? Email us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected] For full Pesca content and updates, check out our website at https://www.mikepesca.com/⁠ For ad-free content or to become a Pesca Plus subscriber, check out ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribe.mikepesca.com/ For Mike's daily takes on Substack, subscribe to The Gist List https://mikepesca.substack.com/ Follow us on Social Media:⁠⁠⁠⁠ YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4_bh0wHgk2YfpKf4rg40_g⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram https://www.instagram.com/pescagist/ X https://x.com/pescami TikTok https://www.tiktok.com/@pescagist To advertise on the show, contact ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ or visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://advertising.libsyn.com/TheGist Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Today on The Gist, legendary comedy director Larry Charles (Borat, Seinfeld, Curb Your Enthusiasm) joins Mike to discuss his new book, Comedy Samurai, breaking down the chaotic, high-stakes reality of shooting with a live bear, the mechanics of building a "wave of laughter," and why crafting compelling characters always beats worrying about likability. Plus, in the Spiel, Mike reflects on the passing of Robert Mueller and how the intense, almost messianic fixation on his investigation ultimately distorted both his role and the reality of his findings. Produced by Corey Wara Video and Social Media by Geoff Craig Do you have questions or comments, or just want to say hello? Email us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected] For full Pesca content and updates, check out our website at https://www.mikepesca.com/⁠ For ad-free content or to become a Pesca Plus subscriber, check out ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribe.mikepesca.com/ For Mike's daily takes on Substack, subscribe to The Gist List https://mikepesca.substack.com/ Follow us on Social Media:⁠⁠⁠⁠ YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4_bh0wHgk2YfpKf4rg40_g⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram https://www.instagram.com/pescagist/ X https://x.com/pescami TikTok https://www.tiktok.com/@pescagist To advertise on the show, contact ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠⁠⁠ or visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://advertising.libsyn.com/TheGist Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.