S2 Ep1036: Jonathan V. Last: An Economic Tsunami Is Coming

Because Donald Trump's stupid trade embargo has us reading shipping charts, we now know that 40% of containership traffic between Asia and the U.S. has been canceled. That means a shortage of consumer goods, which will push prices higher. At the same time, the business environment is too unpredictable for companies to plan. Meanwhile, Trump is reorienting the American economy to a corrupt oligarchy—as he rakes in billions in bribes off his crypto. Plus, Hegseth wants to clear out a chunk of the top brass, U.S. attorney nominee Ed Martin forgot to say he's been on Russian-state media outlets more than 150 times, and the DNC absolutely should not be posting about Kamala at the Met Gala. JVL joins Tim Miller. show notes HuffPost on the trucking company buying Trump's crypto coin The NYT on Trump family business deals JVL on the Ashli Babbitt payout

Trump 2.0 is showing so little concern for his political standing that even Fox made primetime room for Karl Rove to vent about how he's failing at the fundamentals. Our aspiring Gaddafi doesn't care that tariffs aren't popular or that he sounds like Mr. Scrooge when he says kids should have fewer toys. And while belt-tightening is good enough for average Americans, he's throwing himself a giant, ostentatious military parade that will cost tens of millions of dollars. Plus, conservatives in the Anglosphere take another hit, this time down under—and thumbs-up for Maine Gov. Janet Mills, thumbs-down for Gretchen Whitmer.  Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller. show notes Today's "Morning Shots" Jonathan's recent newsletter on Gretchen Whitmer The Atlantic's recent interview with Trump (gifted)

Just imagine Fox's histrionics if a President AOC had said that American kids have too many dolls and that she's raising the price on them. Now the supposedly pro-family administration is doubling down on 'just pay more’ for toys, while it waits for China to blink on tariffs—an unlikely event given that it makes a lot of the things the world needs and wants. Meanwhile, AI's economic threat may be here for recent college grads, Marc Andreessen has deep thoughts on VC, and the NIH (and future American Nobel Prizes) are being burned to own the libs. Plus, the Dems should zero in on how Trump is making America less affordable—and very much like 2020 again. show notes Derek's piece on the job market for recent college grads Derek's podcast, "Plain English" The book, "Abundance," by Derek and Ezra Klein Tim's playlist

Marco Rubio was supposed to be one of the only adults in the room, and now he's become a shell of himself executing Trump's unwinding of the US role in the world. Meanwhile, Pam Bondi just can't keep her blubbering sycophancy under wraps. Plus, Mike Waltz's ouster at NSA, our shakedown of Ukraine with a minerals deal, Trump's pettiness is getting lost in the firehose of his revenge, and even the president of El Salvador doubts the criminality of the people ICE is sending to CECOT.  Tom Nichols join Tim Miller. show notes Tim's interview with Rep. Chris Van Hollen NYT's recent story on the deportations to El Salvador (gift)  The link for tonight's AMA at 8pm ET

For 80 years, the United States built strong economic, military, and political alliances around the world. But in just 100 days, that trust has been dismantled, and our friends are now working without us to forge new relationships. Former Secretary of State Antony Blinken joins Tim to discuss how hard it will be to rebuild after what Trump has done—plus the Biden administration's response to the Gaza protests, and the continuing questions over why Biden did not step aside earlier. And, Alex Wagner joins from Hungary to discuss the mass protests there. Tony Blinken and Alex Wagner join Tim Miller. show notes Alex's "Trumpland" podcast Tim on Trump's ABC News interview

The markets may be hanging in there but they also held strong in early 2020—right up until Covid hit New York. Meanwhile, tariffs are driving consumer confidence down, firms are talking about cutting back on hiring and investments, and Goldman Sachs is predicting that the U.S. will have the highest inflation and lowest growth of any developed economy this year. Plus, Scott Bessent is not a calming influence, and Trump has a real 'War on Christmas' in the works. The Stalwart Joe Weisenthal joins Tim Miller.  show notes Joe and Tracy Alloway's newsletter on how the markets can get things wrong (gift) Recent 'Odd Lots' pod on the coming empty shelves & the War on Christmas Joe's Bluesky post on the War on Christmas

The Trump administration keeps showing it's sooo tough on immigration that it deported three U.S. citizen children, arrested the wife of a member of the Coast Guard because her visa expired, and perp-walked an allegedly immigrant-concealing Wisconsin judge in handcuffs—instead of showing her the kind of deference Trump received over the course of his four indictments. Plus, the wildly wealthy jackasses behind Trump, the missing cargo ships at the ports, and Scott Pelley at 60 Minutes shows how it's done. Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller. show notes Tim on Trump's bad polling numbers for his first 100 days Adrian on a focus group of Latino men in Arizona who are disappoined in Trump Bill's 'Bulwark on Sunday' interview with Ryan Goodman Semafor's piece, "The Group Chats that Changed America"

Since this country's founding, we have been tested. And the Americans before us somehow stood up and fought the good fight. We can't be the generation that loses it all 249 years into this experiment. But that doesn't mean we can't laugh about the stupid clowns—like Trump showing once again that he has no idea how tariffs work. Plus, RFK's dangerous proposed autism registry is selling a cruel fantasy. And Democrats need to lock down what they're selling and listen to what voters want from the government. Beto O'Rourke joins Tim Miller for the weekend pod. show notes Beto's Substack Beto's "Powered by People" NY Post story on the Venezualan stylist, Andry, imprisoned in El Salvador Tim's interview with David Pakman about not traveling abroad Tim’s book recommendation, "Diary of a Man in Despair" Tim's playlist

Donald Trump is trying to foist the worst peace deal in the last 100 years on Ukraine, as he gets repeatedly played by foreign leaders on the world stage. At home, he's turned JFK's "Ask not" upside down to 'Ask what you can do for Donald Trump.' But when will the cowardly law firms or CEOs groveling for a tariff exemption stand up for patriotism, our core constitutional values—and America's better vision of itself? Plus, Tim challenges an 11-year-old block from Twitter's golden era, and Booker shares diet & exercise tips. Sen. Cory Booker joins Tim Miller.

Trump may be brilliant at assaulting us with his daily distractions, but Democrats need to relentlessly target his corruption because that may be his weak spot. He is running the government in a pre-modern way—like it's his own personal piggy bank. And he has replaced rules-oriented bureaucrats with mostly incompetent loyalists who are only there to do his bidding. Meanwhile, Christianity could help heal the country's partisan polarization if it returns to the teachings of Jesus instead of the gospel of Donald Trump. Plus, the constant burden of having to fight the cognitive warfare and sensory overload coming out of the White House.  Brookings’ Jonathan Rauch joins Tim Miller.joins Tim Miller. show notes Jon's piece on Trump's patrimonialism Jon's predictions in 2022 about a Trump second term A Chris Murphy Senate floor speech on Trump's corruption Mark Hertling piece on the Russian and Ukrainian armies that Tim referenced Jon's new book, "Cross Purposes: Christianity's Broken Bargain with Democracy" Jon's book, "The Happiness Curve: Why Life Gets Better After 50" The opening scene of The Godfather