Michael Weiss: Iran Is Not Likely to Forget about the War

From Trump's sacrilegious use of Jesus, to his massively corrupt pardon scheme, and his desire to plaster his name on every federal building and institution, this country has never had such a bad president. The Dems need to plan now how they will do oversight and also keep his loyalists from helping him cheat in the midterms. Plus, Hegseth really doesn't know his Scripture, Trump is turning America's 250th birthday into a party for himself, and RFK has really got a thing about dead animals.Amanda Carpenter joins Tim Miller.show notes Protect Democracy's website ProPublica's reporting on Trump's effort to "take over" the midterms JVL on driving the stake through the heart of Trumpism Get $35 off your first box of wild-caught, sustainable seafood—delivered right to your door. Go to: https://www.wildalaskan.com/BULWARK

The Irish are protesting in the streets over the price of fuel, Qatar's GDP is plummeting, and heating bills are skyrocketing in France. And today, every world leader and every CEO of every major corporation is having to address the consequences of this war of choice on Iran—and Trump couldn't care less. Instead, he's working on a new distraction to get the media to talk about something besides his and Bibi's catastrophic error. But European leaders are finally starting to hit back against Trump, and Xi is trolling him on a genius level. Plus, Vance can't stop making a fool of himself, a debate over the merits of Europe v. the United States, and a healthy serving of fresh British insults to try on for size. Alastair Campbell joins Tim Miller.show notes Tim’s livestream Wednesday at 7pm ET on YouTube or Substack Alastair's podcast, "The Rest Is Politics"  Alastair's recent interview with Zelensky  ON SALE NOW: Bulwark+ members-only presale for Bulwark Live shows in San Diego and LA through TheBulwark.com/Events Tickets for these shows go on sale for everyone else at Noon PT on Friday Get 15% off OneSkin with the code BULWARK at https://www.oneskin.co/BULWARK #oneskinpod

The Iranian regime may be wounded, but it’s likely to seek revenge for the war at some point, maybe even through sleeper cells in the United States. And with a second round of peace negotiations potentially in the works, Iran could rake in billions in return for pausing its nuclear program. On the more uplifting side, the election news out of Hungary has feel-good shades of 1989, and is a reminder that reality and facts can get in the way of a stubborn authoritarian. Plus, Tim on Trump's Jesus post and how he's losing political allies by the minute. Michael Weiss once again joins Tim Miller.show notes: Michael's Substack ON SALE NOW: Bulwark+ members-only presale for Bulwark Live shows in San Diego and LA through TheBulwark.com/Events Tickets for these shows go on sale for everyone else at noon P.T. April 17 Tim’s livestream Wednesday on Coachella and more  Cathy on how the Iran war looks from Russia 

Orbán’s loss in Hungary was so overwhelming he couldn’t cheat his way out of it. But the decisive defeat for both Putin and authoritarianism may also suggest that the vibes they are a changin’. For instance, at home, Trump had to take down his Jesus post because of the backlash from across the political spectrum. People can see he’s flailing on the war and the economy. Plus, Vance has the stink of a loser, Dems can learn some campaigning tricks from Peter Magyar, the Melania-Epstein mystery continues, Trump and Marco are likely to regret those images from the UFC fight, and The Bulwark remains Team Pope Leo.Bill Kristol joins special guest host, Sarah Longwell.show notes This week's Focus Group pod with sad, mad GOP base voters Bill's "Bulwark on Sunday" with Sarah Matthews Monday's "Morning Shots," with David Baer from Budapest Pre-order Sarah’s book, How to Eat an Elephant, coming in September! Get 20% off your DeleteMe plan when you go to joindeleteme.com/BULWARK and use promo code BULWARK at checkout.

No one was really asking about Melania’s ties to Epstein. But after her surprise White House statement to the press on Thursday, the questions are flowing—particularly because a former Brazilian model who moved in both Trump and Epstein circles is posting threats against the First Lady on social media. Tim and Jane break it all down. Plus, Melania does not speak or read English very well, Trump is furious about Tucker & co.’s opposition to the Iran war, Vance’s motives for converting to Catholicism are disgusting and unchristian, and why would Iran permit Saudi-paid Jared to participate in the Islamabad peace talks? Jane Coaston joins Tim Miller for the holiday weekend pod.show notes JVL and Catherine LIVE on the not-so-great economic news  Tim's deep dive on Oscar Romero was in this episode  Tix on sale soon for The Bulwark LIVE in San Diego on May 20 and in Los Angeles on May 21 Follow "Bulwark Takes" for breaking news over the weekend Tim's playlist

Putin puppet Viktor Orbán—whose nepotistic and corrupt government in Hungary has become the model for the far-right in America and Europe—is facing his first serious election challenge in 16 years. It turns out that voters get mad when a president steals from the public and tanks the economy. Vance tried to bolster Orbán with Kremlin-esque fake propaganda, but the energy may be with the grassroots campaign of Peter Magyar. Plus, Vance's arrogance and ignorance about Ukraine, Trump is still coming up short on his Iran war goals, the administration made some weird threats against Pope Leo, and Kari Lake is still a loser. Anne Applebaum joins Tim Miller. show notes Anne's piece on Hungary, "The First Post-Reality Political Campaign" Thursday's "Morning Shots" Giselle Donnelly's Bulwark piece on how Trump's war is impacting global navigation Anne's book, "Twilight of Democracy"  Anne's "Autocracy, Inc." in paperback  Anne's book recommendation, "Furious Minds: The Making of the Maga New Right" Letters from Leo on Substack 

Trump showed that he is completely unequipped to be a war leader. He threatened crimes against humanity, and not only let a foe prove it could take our punches, but also inflict economic pain on the global economy as well. Indeed, with the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran looks to have emerged from the war with a stronger hand. We also don't know how much Trump's financial ties to Gulf countries are influencing his wild and erratic handling of the war. And if this military operation was just about Israel's national security, then that should have been explained to the American people from the start. Plus, the threat an Orbán loss would pose to MAGA, the key redistricting election in Virginia, and how Dems would prioritize oversight if they win back the House.David French and Rep. Suhas Subramanyam join Tim Miller. show notes TNL live last night after Trump folded Wednesday's "Morning Shots"  Tim's debate over the war with Rep. Josh Gottheimer Tix on sale soon for The Bulwark LIVE in San Diego on May 20 and in Los Angeles on May 21 

AI poses real existential threats. The global economy is dependent on it, it's being deployed in war zones and used for domestic surveillance, and it's increasingly integrated into our medical and financial sectors. But the guy sitting atop the world's biggest AI company, Sam Altman, is regarded by some colleagues as a liar, driven by a quest for power, and someone with sociopathic tendencies. When Biden was in the White House, Altman was worried about the limited regulation of AI; under Trump, he's loving that the shackles have come off. Plus, Tim on how the Dems need to get the politics of the Iran war right: Welcome converts into the fold, and prioritize American interests.Ronan Farrow and Andrew Marantz join Tim Miller to discuss their New Yorker piece on OpenAI’s Sam Altman. show notes TNL is LIVE tonight at 7:45 ET on Substack and YouTube Ronan's and Andrew's story in The New Yorker Tim's interview with Karen Hao on the unchecked rise of Altman  For their buy 1 get 1 50% off deal, head to 3DayBlinds.com/THEBULWARK

In threatening to bomb Iran to smithereens, Trump seems to be motivated by a combination of frustration, vengeance, and wanting to look like a tough guy. But he also has a God complex. Destroying the country's bridges and its entire energy infrastructure has nothing to do with nukes—and everything to do with war crimes. Plus, the soldiers and airmen who carried out the daring rescue mission over the weekend hail from the "woke and weak" era of the U.S. military, Trump should be impeached, his family has ties with military contracts involved in the war effort, and there are rumors of at least one SCOTUS retirement this year. Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller.show notes: Monday's "Morning Shots" Lauren on the Democrats feeling electoral hopium  The UK's Andrew Neil on the power of the Strait of Hormuz v the Bomb

The pro-Iran war hawks keep crowing about how U.S. military prowess is supposedly striking fear in Beijing and Moscow. But what’s really happening is that Trump is doing exactly what China and Russia hoped he’d do. Beijing has wanted the U.S. out of the Western Pacific and Putin, of course, wants NATO wrecked. Our major allies are scrambling to form new economic and military relationships, and America is likely to be very lonely in the world with only a few stooges to count as friends. This is what ending our role as a global superpower would look like. Plus, the U.S. is unable to win the war at a cost that is acceptable to Americans, Trump is taking a cue from Putin by bombing civilian infrastructure, and blaming NATO for not being willing to fight for the Strait of Hormuz is absurd when the world’s most powerful navy doesn't seem to want to do it either.Bob Kagan joins Tim Miller for the holiday weekend pod.show notes Bob's recent piece in The Atlantic Tim's bimbofied livestream "Foreign Policy" piece on South Korea that Bob referenced Follow "Bulwark Takes" for breaking news over the weekend Tim's playlist