9: Final Midterms Thoughts + Haley Stevens' Heel Turn

Clare, Galen, and Nate break down what went wrong for Republicans in the midterms, examine the unexpectedly competitive Senate race in Mississippi as votes continue to be counted, and consider what comes next for a party in disarray. Then, they look ahead to 2028 with their draft of potential Republican presidential contenders.Draft Rules 25 points for winning the nomination 5 points for officially running 5 points for surviving until the first officially-sanctioned nominating contest 3 points for winning each nominating contest before Super Tuesday 2 points for winning each nominating contest from Super Tuesday onward 1 bonus point for winning each state with at least 15 electoral votes and/or pivotal swing states in 2024 (CA, TX, FL, NY, PA, IL, OH, GA, NC, MI, AZ, WI, NV) 10 bonus points to whoever picks third, 5 bonus points to whoever picks second Become a subscriber to Crooked Media! It’s the best way to directly support us as we build an independent, pro-democracy media company. Subscribers get exclusive benefits, like bonus podcasts, newsletters and more. Subscribe now at crooked.com/friends or wherever you listen to podcasts.You can request a transcript by emailing [email protected]. Include the podcast name, episode title, and air date. Please allow 48 hours for delivery.

Live from Crooked Con, Nate, Clare and Galen get into the midterm data and translate all the signals in the noise of the Blue-nami. They break down the results: voter turnout, how MAGA has reacted, and what it all means for the future of the Democratic Party and the GOP. They also cast their eyes forward to 2028, and draft their new picks for the Democratic Primary.Become a subscriber to Crooked Media! It’s the best way to directly support us as we build an independent, pro-democracy media company. Subscribers get exclusive benefits, like bonus podcasts, newsletters and more. Subscribe now at crooked.com/friends or wherever you listen to podcasts.You can request a transcript by emailing [email protected]. Include the podcast name, episode title, and air date. Please allow 48 hours for delivery.

The midterms dust is still settling and votes are still being counted in key states, but no matter which way you look at it, it was a terrible night for Donald Trump and Republicans, and a great night for Democrats. Nate, Galen, and Clare break down the results, examine how Trump’s handpicked candidates fared, and dig into what this election means for the future of MAGA and the Republican Party. They also assess how Nate’s forecast performed, compare the polls to the final results, and, because it’s never too early, discuss what all of it could mean for 2028.Become a subscriber to Crooked Media!It’s the best way to directly support us as we build an independent, pro-democracy media company. Subscribers get exclusive benefits, like bonus podcasts, newsletters and more. Subscribe now at crooked.com/friends or wherever you listen to podcasts.You can request a transcript by emailing [email protected]. Include the podcast name, episode title, and air date. Please allow 48 hours for delivery.

In this bonus episode, Clare, Nate, and Galen take a last look at FLIPR’s midterm forecast and the latest New York Times/Siena University polls—both of which show Democrats with a lot of momentum heading into Election Day. They also unpack Haley Stevens’ eleventh-hour endorsement of Abdul El-Sayed’s opponent, Mike Rogers, and ballot-stacking in Alaska before sharing their final midterm predictions.You can request a transcript by emailing [email protected]. Include the podcast name, episode title, and air date. Please allow 48 hours for delivery.

With Election Day less than a week away, Galen, Clare, and Nate answer your burning questions and unpack what the latest New York Times/Siena poll reveals about South Carolina’s Senate race, whether pollsters are herding, and how to interpret the numbers in the final stretch. They also dig into what early voting data can—and can’t—tell us about voter turnout and the broader electorate.You can request a transcript by emailing [email protected]. Include the podcast name, episode title, and air date. Please allow 48 hours for delivery.

Nate, Galen, and Clare dive into the latest midterms numbers, including FLIPR’s updated forecast giving Democrats a 77 percent chance of winning the Senate and the final Times/Siena national poll of the election, which finds Trump’s approval rating at a new low. They also discuss concerns about polling accuracy after a firm admits to faking its data, and the problems that raises for pollsters, candidates, and the country. Then, they take a look at the issues Democrats and Republicans are focusing on as seen through their political ads and analyze what that tells us about the state of the midterms and what campaigns are hearing internally from voters.You can request a transcript by emailing [email protected]. Include the podcast name, episode title, and air date. Please allow 48 hours for delivery.

Clare, Nate, and Galen check the latest in the FLIPR midterms forecast and discuss whether the election has solidified, or if Republicans can mount a last ditch recovery. Then, in “Do You Buy It?” they put conventional wisdom to the test, unpacking the latest midterms headlines and examining whether the assumptions behind the stories actually hold up. They close by answering audience questions about the Epstein files’ impact on the midterms and whether a 20th century midterms election offers parallels to the current one.Become a subscriber to Crooked Media! It’s the best way to directly support us as we build an independent, pro-democracy media company. Subscribers get exclusive benefits, like bonus podcasts, newsletters and more. Subscribe now at crooked.com/friends or wherever you listen to podcasts.You can request a transcript by emailing [email protected]. Include the podcast name, episode title, and air date. Please allow 48 hours for delivery.

Galen, Clare, and Nate check the latest FLIPR forecasts for the House and Senate before discussing the closer than expected Senate race in Minnesota. Then it’s time for the first-ever Still Counting Draft! The hosts make their picks for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, including frontrunners like AOC and Gavin Newsom. They also talk about the reason for doing a draft now and after the midterms and Nate explains why there are only two good candidate options.You can request a transcript by emailing [email protected]. Include the podcast name, episode title, and air date. Please allow 48 hours for delivery.

Nate, Galen, and Clare break down the latest midterm polling in some of the most competitive congressional contests and Democrats’ continued edge. In Maine, they discuss the NYT/Siena numbers and what Senator Susan Collins’ lead over Troy Jackson in that poll indicates about the race. In Ohio, they unpack what Republican Senator Jon Husted’s low name recognition means for his unusual matchup against Sherrod Brown. And in Alaska, they zoom out on the discourse around Senate candidate Mary Peltola and her alleged mistreatment of staffers.You can request a transcript by emailing [email protected]. Include the podcast name, episode title, and air date. Please allow 48 hours for delivery.

On today’s episode, Galen, Clare, and Nate take a closer look at the latest midterms polling, where the data could be wrong, the likelihood for errors, and whether the apparent blue-wave story is as convincing as it looks. Then, they stress-test the case for and against the polls, examining both the bull and bear cases for believing the numbers.You can request a transcript by emailing [email protected]. Include the podcast name, episode title, and air date. Please allow 48 hours for delivery.