The Seismic Impact of Artificial Intelligence

Writing a book was something former senior CIA Officer Rob Dannenberg never thought he’d do, but as he started reflecting on the ways he and his former colleagues would celebrate the successful recruitment of a new agent or the end of an operation that he couldn’t talk about, he started thinking about the cocktails he and his colleagues would order to mark the occasion.  Dannenberg recruited former colleague Joseph Mullin, CSW to help him compile not only the best recipes for the cocktails that defined their careers, but also for the stories that make them all the tastier.  

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Ukrainians have used every resource available to fight back. From aid packages and weapons systems acquired from western allies to mobilizing every sector of society to bring innovation to the fight, Ukraine has stayed alive largely because of its adaptations of technology and its ingenuity on the battlefield. As part of a special delegation that visited Kyiv last month – led by former CIA Director General David Petraeus, The Cipher Brief met senior Chief Warrant Officer Joey Gagnard, who retired from the U.S. Special Operations Community earlier this year.  As part of that delegation, Gagnard’s unique take on where Ukraine is today when it comes to its use and development of war technologies like unmanned systems – provided some ground truth about where it may be headed.

Beijing has long said that it aims to be the world’s technology leader but the rate at which it is building data centers – and how it’s using them - is raising alarms in national security circles. State Secrets Podcast host Suzanne Kelly is talking with SCSP Senior Director of Intelligence Chip Usher, SCSP Director of Intelligence Libby Lange and Principal Intelligence Advisor at Strider Technologies, Chris Gregg about what a major new report tells us about just how quickly and effectively China is using AI and why that should concern you.

CIA veteran Sheetal Patel helped stand up and then lead the spy agency’s Transnational and Technology Mission Center in 2022, at a time when there was no longer any denying that more outreach to the private sector and a better grasp of the technologies that were available had to become more of a focus if the Agency was to maintain its strategic advantage.  Patel retired earlier this year after a 25-year career at the Agency and State Secrets Podcast host Suzanne Kelly caught up with her to find out how the Agency’s technology mission has evolved.

Vice Admiral Frank Whitworth sits at the helm of the Intelligence Agency that is helping war fighters and Intelligence analysts better understand the world and what’s beyond it.  The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) works intensely with the private sector to bring the most critical technological advances to the mission – not just here on Earth, but in Space as well.  Join us for this State Secretsconversation with Cipher Brief Honoree VADM Frank Whitworth on why getting the technology right – is so important to the broader national security mission.

Despite efforts by U.S. President Donald Trump to warm U.S. relations with Moscow amid negotiations for Russia to end its war in Ukraine, Russian sabotage operations, active measures and Gray Zone activities are continuing around the world. Moscow has mastered the art of engaging in operations that push right up to the edge of war, without really crossing that that line, or have they?  The Cipher Brief talks with former Senior Member of the British Foreign Office Nick Fishwick and former senior CIA Executive Dave Pitts – who spent the bulk of his time at the Agency working in clandestine operations – about this new reality – that what we are seeing is really “war by a new name”.

When Walter Parkes co-wrote the movie War Games in 1983, he had no idea what he had launched.  The movie about a teen hacker played by Matthew Broderick examined what might happen if someone breached the security systems around U.S. nuclear weapons.  As it turned out, then-President Ronald Reagan saw the movie and asked the Joint Chiefs of Staff at the time whether it was possible.  After an investigation, the answer came back, “Sir, it’s actually worse than you think.” Eighteen months later, the president signed a directive that would lead to an overhaul of cybersecurity in the U.S. Government.  As The Cipher Brief honors Parkes with this year’s Impact Through Storytelling Award at The Cipher Brief HONORS Dinner, we sat down with him to talk about the very real power of storytelling.

In this conversation, former Senior CIA Execuvite Chip Usher discusses the recent advancements made by the Chinese AI lab DeepSeq, particularly its new AI models that rival those of American companies like OpenAI. Usher, now the Senior Director for Intelligence at the Special Competitive Studies Project, explains the significance of these developments in the context of US-China competition in technology and innovation, emphasizing the need for the US intelligence community to enhance its focus on techno-economic intelligence to avoid being caught off guard by such breakthroughs. Usher also highlights the implications of DeepSeq's model for cybersecurity and the potential risks posed by hostile actors gaining access to advanced AI capabilities.  

In this conversation, Mike Vigil discusses the recent designation of Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations by the U.S. government, a move he says is largely symbolic with little real impact on the cartels' operations. He highlights the complexities of U.S.-Mexico relations, the ongoing fentanyl crisis, and the risks of military escalation. Vigil also offers advice for U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on addressing drug trafficking in Central America, stressing the importance of creating alliances and addressing the broader issues of drug production and trafficking.

Few people have the perspective that Lt. Gen Mike Groen (ret.) has when it comes to Artificial Intelligence and the impact it has and will have in the national security space.  Before retiring from the military, Lt. General Groen served as Director of the Pentagon’s Joint Artificial Intelligence Center.  Today, he’s ringing the alarm about AI.  The military is already adapting AI, so how does he think we need to be understanding it today?