NATO's European Test: Ukraine, Russia and the Future of the Alliance

Artificial intelligence, drones and commercial satellites are transforming the way intelligence is collected, analyzed and used — but as technology delivers answers faster than ever, how do intelligence professionals make sure those answers are actually right? In this episode of The Cipher Brief's State Secrets Podcast, Suzanne Kelly sits down with retired Vice Admiral Trey Whitworth, former Director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) and former Director for Intelligence on the Joint Staff, to discuss how emerging technology is changing intelligence and the character of modern warfare. Whitworth explains his concept of "drones, codes and spacecraft," why AI could fundamentally change the intelligence cycle, and the danger of what he calls a "veneer of understanding" — having information at our fingertips without the expertise or rigor needed to truly understand it. The conversation also explores source validation in the age of AI, the changing nature of deterrence, NGA's role in warning and targeting, the growing importance of commercial satellite imagery, and Whitworth's move from government into the private sector. The Cipher Brief brings together experienced intelligence, military, diplomatic and private-sector leaders to help subscribers understand what is happening behind the headlines - and what national security professionals are watching next. Learn more at: www.thecipherbrief.com Become a Subscriber+ member for exclusive access to The Cipher Brief's Daily Open Source Report, described by some as the best, unclassified national security report they've ever read. Sign up today at: https://www.thecipherbrief.com/subscr Learn more about how to attend the 2026 Cipher Brief Threat Conference at: www.tcbconference.com Today's sponsor: Two Six Technologies https://twosixtech.com/

Iranian-American businessman Emad Shargi spent more than five years detained in Iran, enduring solitary confinement, brutal interrogations, a mock execution and a 10-year prison sentence after being accused of cooperating with the United States. Now, Shargi joins The Cipher Brief CEO & Publisher Suzanne Kelly to tell the extraordinary story of his arrest, imprisonment, attempted escape from Iran and eventual release — and to offer a stark warning about how the Iranian regime operates. Shargi describes the night IRGC intelligence agents raided his family's home in Tehran, his detention inside the notorious Evin Prison and the pressure he faced to falsely confess to being a CIA spy. He also recounts an attempted escape from Iran after being sentenced to a decade in prison — an effort that ended when he was captured near the Iraqi Kurdistan border and returned to IRGC custody. But this conversation goes beyond his years in prison. Drawing on his firsthand experience with the Iranian security apparatus, Shargi explains why he believes Washington must fundamentally rethink how it deals with Tehran, the role economic pressure can play in weakening the regime and why he believes the Iranian people ultimately have the will to demand change. "You cannot negotiate with a cult of death," Shargi tells The Cipher Brief.

Former CIA Director and retired U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus joins The Cipher Brief CEO & Publisher Suzanne Kelly for a wide-ranging conversation about the wars reshaping the global security landscape — and why the United States needs to fundamentally rethink how it prepares for the conflicts of the future. From the war with Iran and Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine to China's military calculations over Taiwan, Petraeus explains how drones, autonomous weapons and rapidly changing battlefield technology are transforming warfare faster than many military institutions can adapt. On Iran, Petraeus examines whether there is a realistic path to ending the conflict, why maintaining economic and maritime pressure on Tehran matters, and how Iran's missiles and drones have changed the threat to U.S. forces, regional partners and some of the world's most critical energy infrastructure. He also warns against believing the United States can simply disengage from the region. "Trying to leave the Middle East for the United States is like Michael Corleone trying to leave the mafia," Petraeus says. "You just keep getting sucked back in." The conversation then turns to Ukraine, which Petraeus describes as a "laboratory for the future of war." He explains how drones have transformed the battlefield, why traditional weapons such as artillery and tanks face new vulnerabilities, and how autonomous systems could soon usher in another dramatic shift.

Artificial intelligence is transforming cyber warfare - and former NSA Director and U.S. Cyber Command Commander Gen. Paul Nakasone says the speed of that transformation demands a new approach to America's defense. In this episode of The Cipher Brief's State Secrets podcast, Suzanne Kelly sits down with Gen. Nakasone to discuss how AI is reshaping offensive and defensive cyber operations - and why increasingly autonomous systems could fundamentally change the role humans play in cyber conflict. They examine China's penetration of U.S. telecommunications and critical infrastructure, cyber threats from Iran, Russia and North Korea, the growing ransomware threat, the race to prepare for quantum computing, and what Ukraine is teaching the world about autonomous warfare.  Gen. Nakasone also explains why America's intelligence capabilities remain a critical competitive advantage, why defending critical infrastructure requires deeper partnerships between government and the private sector, and what national security leaders should be watching now.

Recorded on location in Kyiv, Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery joins Suzanne Kelly for a timely State Secrets conversation on how Ukraine is reshaping the future of warfare. Editor's Note: We caught up with Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery in Kyiv just as President Zelensky announced the firing of former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, prompting a wave of protests. Since this interview was recorded, additional developments - including changes in Ukraine's military leadership - have overtaken parts of that discussion. The strategic insights on Ukraine's battlefield innovation, however, remain as relevant as ever. From Ukraine's increasingly effective long-range drone campaign against Russia's military infrastructure to the growing strain on Kyiv's air defenses, Montgomery explains why this war is becoming the world's most important laboratory for military innovation. He also shares firsthand observations from his latest trip to Ukraine - including conversations with commanders on the front lines - and discusses what the U.S., NATO, and Taiwan should be learning before the next major conflict.

Speaking from the NATO summit in Ankara, Nick Fishwick assesses the alliance's most urgent challenges, from Europe's push to increase defense spending to the need for greater intelligence sharing and military interoperability. He explains why a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine remains unlikely, what NATO is learning from Ukraine's battlefield innovation, and why Russia continues to represent the alliance's principal security threat. Fishwick also discusses the diminishing focus on Greenland as the war with Iran reshapes U.S. priorities.

The battlefield is changing faster than most governments can adapt. In this episode of State Secrets, Cipher Brief CEO Suzanne Kelly sits down with retired General Phil Breedlove, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, to examine how drones, artificial intelligence and autonomous systems are transforming modern warfare—and what that means for U.S. national security. Drawing on lessons from Ukraine, the Middle East and NATO's eastern flank, General Breedlove explains why drones are only one piece of a much larger revolution in military power. He discusses why America must rethink defense acquisition, how adversaries are exploiting gray zone warfare, why protecting critical infrastructure is becoming increasingly difficult, and why the West can no longer afford to fight tomorrow's wars with yesterday's assumptions. From the future of air superiority to cyber conflict, autonomous weapons and the growing threat to the homeland, this is a conversation about the wars of the future—and whether the United States is prepared for them.

How will wars be fought in the next decade—and is the United States prepared? In this exclusive conversation, The Cipher Brief CEO Suzanne Kelly sits down with General David Petraeus to examine the sweeping transformation reshaping modern warfare. Drawing on his repeated visits to Ukraine alongside The Cipher Brief, General Petraeus argues that the battlefield has changed more dramatically in the last three years than at any point in modern military history. From artificial intelligence and autonomous systems to drone swarms and machine-speed decision making, Petraeus explains why the war in Ukraine has become the world's most important laboratory for military innovation—and why the United States and its allies must move far more quickly to adapt.

What happens when one of Hollywood's most influential futurists sits down with a former NSA Director? In this special State Secrets conversation, Ronald D. Moore—the creator behind For All Mankind, Battlestar Galactica, and Star Trek—joins former NSA and U.S. Cyber Command Commander Gen. Timothy Haugh to explore the increasingly blurred line between science fiction and national security reality. From the new space race and AI-powered disinformation to cyber warfare, Russia, China, and the future of conflict, this wide-ranging discussion reveals how the stories we imagine today may become tomorrow's strategic challenges. Are we entering a technological revolution as consequential as the space race? And who is best positioned to anticipate what's next—the intelligence community or the storytellers imagining the future?

America's national security challenges are evolving faster than ever—and the traditional defense innovation system is struggling to keep pace. In this episode of State Secrets, Cipher Brief CEO Suzanne Kelly sits down with two of the most influential voices in defense innovation: Steve Blank, creator of the Lean Startup methodology and co-founder of Hacking for Defense, and Pete Newell, retired Army officer, founder of BMNT, and co-founder of Hacking for Defense. Together, they discuss how students at leading universities are tackling real-world challenges from the Pentagon, intelligence community, and NASA; why AI is changing the way innovators build solutions; and what it will take for the United States to compete with increasingly adaptive adversaries like China. The conversation explores defense acquisition reform, the Pentagon's innovation ecosystem, startup culture in national security, the rise of defense venture capital, and why the biggest challenge may not be technology—but people.