Correlation, Causation, and Meta Ads Mistakes

Meta advertising has changed dramatically since iOS 14, but many advertisers are still clinging to their old targeting strategies and complex campaign structures. Jon shares his own painful evolution from stubborn micro-targeting advocate to algorithmic believer, and explains why resisting change will make you irrelevant.

When you change your targeting and results improve, or implement GA4 integration and performance tanks, it's tempting to assume one caused the other. Jon explains why advertisers constantly mistake correlation for causation and what you should do instead of jumping to conclusions.

Most advertisers lead with features when they write ads, rattling off benefits and capabilities. But features don't move the needle. Jon explains the three-element framework that actually drives conversions and why pain points matter more than you think.

The advertising space is noisier than ever with fake experts peddling guaranteed results and magical campaign structures. Jon outlines the five warning signs that should immediately make you skeptical of anyone's advertising advice, including why the loudest voices are often the ones you should trust the least.

Advertisers get stuck chasing magical strategies, complex testing methods, and guru tricks when their ads aren't working. Jon explains why these targeting strategies and intricate campaign structures are pointless distractions, and what you should focus on instead.

Mark Zuckerberg envisions a future where businesses simply tell Meta their objective and budget, and AI does everything else, including creating the ads. This isn't some distant fantasy. We're already halfway there with campaign automation, and the implications for ad agencies are massive.

When you "let results be your guide," make sure those results actually matter. Jon explains why advertisers often make bad decisions based on meaningless data and outlines four critical factors that determine when your metrics are truly worth acting on.

"Let results be your guide" is more than just a catchphrase. It's the antidote to rigid marketing formulas. Jon explains why universal answers to questions like "How often should I update creative?" and "Should I restrict by age or gender?" miss the point, and how focusing on your actual performance data leads to better advertising decisions.

A baseball manager's job is to put talented players in position to succeed, not over-manage with unnecessary bunts and quirky strategies. Jon explains why advertisers make the same mistake - focusing on complex campaign tactics instead of what actually wins: great ads.

Small budgets create a cascade of problems beyond just limited results. Jon explains why low ad spend makes it impossible to meaningfully test, optimize, or learn from your campaigns - and what to do when you simply can't spend more.