2025 Outlook: Rotating Between Defense and Offense

As of late May, the US ranks 39th out of 44 global stock markets—firmly in the bottom 15%. Meanwhile, international markets are gaining momentum, with 7 of the top 10 performing countries located in Europe. This performance gap appears to be supported by improving fundamentals, favorable currency trends, and rising earnings expectations across the region. Can it continue? In this episode of Simple, But Not Easy, host Nick VanDerSchie is joined by Morningstar’s Paul Tait and international equity portfolio manager Nabil Salem to explore why now may be the right time to take a fresh look at international diversification.

When markets hit a rough patch—as they did in early April—investors often lose confidence. Emotions run high after paper losses, and that’s when many fall into the “ready, fire, aim” trap. Decisions become reactive, not disciplined. It’s common to see investors flee to cash or pivot to more conservative positions in an effort to feel safer. But more often than not, resisting that urge is the better path. In this episode of Simple, But Not Easy, we sit down with Morningstar’s Global Chief Research & Investment Officer, Dan Kemp, to explore how advisors can guide clients through uncertainty—not with bold predictions, but by remaining anchored to a clear investment philosophy.

We explore the growing convergence between public and private markets and what it means for today’s investors. As private market strategies become more accessible, advisors and their clients are gaining new tools to diversify portfolios and pursue long-term growth. We break down what’s driving this shift, the opportunities and risks involved, and how financial professionals can help investors navigate this evolving landscape.

Time is a financial advisor’s most valuable asset. As industry tailwinds push the profession toward greater client-centricity—and as clients demand more from their advisors—many are recognizing the benefits of outsourcing investment management. By doing so, they can focus on what truly drives their business: being in front of clients and strengthening relationships.

Morningstar Wealth's Chief Investment Officer, Philip Straehl, and Head of Investments, Ricky Williamson share insights on the key themes shaping the investment landscape for 2025 and beyond.

While presidential elections often create tension and leave many feeling on edge, the stock market didn’t share this level of apprehension. Remarkably, October was one of the least volatile months in history leading up to a presidential election. Although this might seem surprising, it’s not entirely unusual. Markets frequently display greater resilience than we might expect. However, it’s important to remember that volatility isn’t always synonymous with selloffs or down days. As Morningstar Wealth Chief Multi-Asset Strategist Dom Pappalardo recently explained during his podcast appearance on Simple, but Not Easy, market activity post-election highlights the varied forms volatility can take. In his role, Pappalardo focuses on helping clients understand how Morningstar's research efforts translate into actionable portfolio management decisions.

Some have called this the weirdest housing market in recent history due to the unusual mix of high interest rates and declining affordability. And yet, we still have record high home prices across the 20 largest housing markets in the country. This month, we're diving into the U.S. housing market, a topic very relevant to many investors given a house is often the largest single asset one owns. In this episode, we're excited to shed light on the US housing market, what makes it challenging, what makes it unusual, and what needs to change for it to improve. We're joined by Preston Caldwell, Morningstar's Chief US Economist and Brian Bernard, Director of Equity Research specializing in the industrial sector, which includes homebuilders.

Welcome back to Simple But Not Easy. We hope you had an enjoyable summer and are ready to finish the year on a high note. In today's episode, we're excited to dive deep into the world of investing, market strategies, and the future of wealth management. We'll start by getting to know Philip Straehl, Morningstar's new Chief Investment Officer of the Americas, as he shares insights from his career journey and a wealth of knowledge on the evolving market landscape. From there, we'll explore Morningstar's mission and investment philosophy, and importantly, what sets it apart in an ever-evolving financial world. Wealth management industry trends are also on the agenda, and we'll close with some investing themes that everyone should be thinking about.

A special live episode from the Morningstar Investment Conference. Two of Morningstar Wealth’s investment leaders—Matt Wacher and Ricky Williamson—joined the show to help us dig into what’s already happened this year and where we may be headed. The topics covered included: • The Fed and where rates may be headed • Further discussion on fixed-income • US stocks are off to another hot start this year. Can outperformance continue? • Every business is thinking about AI. How is it impacting markets? • And how should investors be preparing for a presidential election? And as always, we address the implications on client portfolios and help consider action items.

The evolution of financial advice in a few decades time has been nothing short of revolutionary. The industry's transformation has been driven by technological advancements, regulatory changes and evolving investor preferences. Traditional methods of in-person advice have been expanded to include digital platforms, providing investors with greater accessibility and customization. And we've all observed an evolution in financial planning journeys and an increase in the number of advisors making financial planning core to their value proposition. But we still have to ask, is there room for improvement?