How Does The Iran War End?

Eric and Eliot continue to wrestle with the ongoing Iran war, examining the media coverage surrounding it, the tactical successes the joint forces have had, the inexplicable failure to provide counter-drone defense to US forces, the baffling inattention to mine storage facilities that may have led to mines being seeded in the Gulf, and the enormous expenditure of munitions that may leave the US vulnerable if military operations were required in other theaters. They also discuss how the war might be concluded, likely downstream consequences, and the prospect that President Trump may shift his focus to Cuba, where President Diaz-Canel has confirmed that quiet negotiations with the US have been going on for some time.Eliot's Latest in The Atlantic on Air Campaigns (Gift Link):https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/03/air-campaign-military-primer/686294/?gift=KGDC3VdV8jaCufvP3bRsPqEbYdfKy52g6Ojp5VlDiRo&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=shareShield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot welcome Norman Roule, a non-resident senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a thirty-four-year career veteran of the U.S. intelligence community, where he served in the Directorate of Operations as a division chief and chief of station, and for nearly a decade as the national intelligence manager for Iran in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). They discuss Trump's effort to replicate his Venezuela playbook and the search for an Iranian Delcy Rodríguez, the intricacies of the Iranian succession, and the potential for the regular army (ARTESH) to step in and seize leadership of the country. The conversation also covers the IRGC's hold on the system in Iran, the sources of Iran's misreading of the regional situation and of Donald Trump, the failure of Iran's alliances to come to the rescue, and the nature of Iran as an intelligence target.Eliot's Latest in The Atlantic (Gift Link):https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/03/trump-iran-war-confusion/686259/?gift=KGDC3VdV8jaCufvP3bRsPq02AwLxoJbONMjAocns7uo&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=shareShield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

NOTE: This episode was recorded on Monday, March 2, 2026.Eric and Eliot assess where the US and Israel stand in the current war with Iran and identify the downside risks while acknowledging the world is a better place with the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. They weigh the prospects for success against some of the darker possibilities, discuss the internal situation in Iran, and examine Israel’s role in the operation.Eliot’s Latest in the Atlantic:America’s Invaluable Ally:https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/03/americas-invaluable-ally/686205/?gift=KGDC3VdV8jaCufvP3bRsPo_i9WWeAapCb1_ocSZQ-ag&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=shareTrump Rolls the Iron Dice:https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/02/trump-rolls-iron-dice-iran/686199/?gift=KGDC3VdV8jaCufvP3bRsPiz9hFl3HmKfcY7OSD7I258&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=shareShield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

NOTE: This episode was recorded before the attack on Iran.Eric and Eliot review the State of the Union and discuss Eliot’s Atlantic article on the degradation of American political rhetoric. They criticize the President’s failure to make a case for military action in Iran and discuss the potential for the operation to go sideways quickly. They also cover the outbreak of hostilities between Afghanistan and Pakistan and the Pentagon’s declaration of war on Anthropic. They then turn to returning guest Seth Jones, President of the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and author of The American Edge: The Military Tech Nexus and the Sources of Great Power Dominance. They examine consolidation within the defense industrial base, the scale of Chinese military-industrial production, the convoluted U.S. procurement system, and lessons about munitions consumption from the war in Ukraine.The American Edge: The Military Tech Nexus and the Sources of Great Power Dominance: https://a.co/d/0bkXEhfoEliot on the State of the Union: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/02/cooper-union-state-union/686149/?gift=KGDC3VdV8jaCufvP3bRsPlUvaCAbledQrfoRDY_9QJU&utm_Frank Kendall on The Pentagon v Anthropic: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/27/opinion/anthropic-pentagon-ai-defense.html?unlocked_article_code=1.PVA.40eZ.6OQb5YZlIGOe&smid=url-shareAnthropic Statement: https://www.anthropic.com/news/statement-department-of-warShield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot debate the merits and deficiencies of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s attempt to present “Trumpism with a human face” at the Munich Security Conference before turning to the dilemmas Trump faces in Iran. They discuss the administration’s uncertain strategic objective, the failure to consult Congress and the public, and the potential for a much longer military engagement than Trump is accustomed to. In the second half of the show, they welcome Hoover Institution Senior Fellow Frank Dikötter to discuss his newly published book, Red Dawn Over China: How Communism Conquered a Quarter of Humanity. They explore the weakness of the communist movement before World War II; the extensive role Soviet support played in sustaining it and in equipping and training what would become the People’s Liberation Army; the deep Stalinist ideological impact on the party; and the extraordinary violence and barbarity the CCP inflicted on the Chinese populace in the territories it occupied.Red Dawn Over China: How Communism Conquered a Quarter of Humanity:https://a.co/d/0d3ozDuBEliot on Marco Rubio's Munich Speech (Gift Link):https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/02/marco-rubio-munich/686025/?gift=KGDC3VdV8jaCufvP3bRsPv8cuxRM97HlBS7AWRa8x2QShield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot begin with a buffet of administration jackassery before pivoting to a preview of the Munich Security Conference. They discuss Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Bridge Colby's remarks, as well as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's speech highlighting the importance of transatlantic ties. They also examine the New START treaty's recent lapse and the future of arms control, the prospect for additional U.S. strikes on Iran, and the apparent shutdown of Russian Starlink terminals. They conclude with a discussion of the ongoing international fallout from the Epstein affair and his many unexplained Russian connections.Eric and Frank Miller's Latest on New START:https://thedispatch.com/article/new-start-expiration-russia-united-states-nuclear-program/Eric and Frank Miller on NATO:https://www.nationalreview.com/2026/01/natos-not-dead/Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot welcome back friend of the show Kori Schake, Senior Fellow and Director of Foreign and Defense Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, to discuss her new book, The State and the Soldier: A History of Civil-Military Relations in the United States. They explore Kori’s critique of Samuel Huntington’s canonical study, The Soldier and the State, examine George Washington’s consequential resignation of his commission before the Continental Congress, and discuss the role of charismatic but unhinged military figures in American politics, as well as the relationship between civilians and military officers when executing orders.  The State and the Soldier: A History of Civil-Military Relations in the United States:https://a.co/d/0biIePiPThe Soldier and the State: The Theory and Politics of Civil–Military Relations:https://a.co/d/0dsgKaLrShield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot discuss Trump’s latest reversals on Greenland before pivoting to the recently released National Defense Strategy. They dissect the many flaws of the NDS, including North Korean–style adoration for the President, a lack of explanation for how its stated goals would be achieved, and the total omission of Taiwan. The two also speculate about how Xi Jinping’s recent purge of General Zhang Youxia could impact the Indo-Pacific in the near future, before closing with an assessment of whether Trump is on the cusp of military action against Iran.Eric on the National Defense Strategy:https://thedispatch.com/article/trump-national-defense-strategy-europe-china-homeland/Eliot on the National Defense Strategy:https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/01/unserious-national-defense-strategy/685784/Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot welcome Stephen Kotkin, professor emeritus of history at Princeton University and senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and Freeman-Spogli Institute. They discuss his recent Foreign Affairs article, “The Weakness of the Strongmen: What Really Threatens Authoritarians?” Kotkin explores the frailty and resilience of authoritarian regimes through the lens of recent events in Venezuela and Iran, as well as the rise of Russia and China as authoritarian powers. They also discuss potential alternative future paths for Russia and turn to the current authoritarian temptation in the United States, along with the historic reasons for optimism that American democracy is robust enough to weather the depredations of the Trump administration.  Eliot’s Latest in The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/01/trump-greenland-europe-nato/685720/?gift=KGDC3VdV8jaCufvP3bRsPgGy7Ja9UMv_dSH1wXC41Rk&utm_ The Weakness of the Strongmen: What Really Threatens Authoritarians?: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/weakness-strongmen-stephen-kotkin The Five Futures of Russia: And How America Can Prepare for Whatever Comes Next: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/five-futures-russia-stephen-kotkin Stalin: Paradoxes of Power, 1878-1928: https://a.co/d/40CsvHC Stalin: Waiting for Hitler, 1929-1941: https://a.co/d/6IQt4nR Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eliot's coastal Georgian internet connection holds on just long enough to review the administration's latest jackassery before Eric welcomes journalist Michael Weiss to the show. Their wide-ranging conversation covers the prospects for U.S. strikes in Iran, Trump's Venezuelan adventure, and the latest from the Russia-Ukraine war. Finally, the two discuss recent revelations related to Havana Syndrome and the role Russian military intelligence has likely played in attacks on U.S. intelligence, law enforcement, and foreign service officers overseas.Eric and Frank Miller's Latest on New START:https://open.substack.com/pub/thebulwark/p/time-to-end-the-last-us-russia-nuclear-trreaty-new-start-trump-putin-china-weapons-missiles-ukraineForeign Office by Michael Weiss:https://macspaunday.substack.com/Michael's Investigation in The Insider on GRU Links to Havana Syndrome:https://theins.ru/en/politics/270717Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.