Episode 392: Small Cap Value Indexes, Managed Futures Butterly, And A Mini-Rant On Bucketeering

In this episode we answer emails from Kyle, Steve and James.  We discuss the three most common small cap value indexes -- S&P 600, CRSP and Russell, modifications to the Golden Butterfly portfolio using managed futures, and the fantasies and follies of portfolio Bucketeering.Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterSteve's Modified Golden Butterfly:  testfol.io/?s=hJZl3QbaXsjMerriman's Best In Class ETFs:  Best-in-Class ETF Recommendations | Merriman Financial Education FoundationKitces Article About Bucket Strategies:  Managing Sequence Risk: Bucket Strategies Vs Total ReturnAmusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Can equal-weighted ETFs outperform their cap-weighted counterparts? Find out as we break down their impact on factor representation within diversified portfolios, focusing on strategies like the Golden Butterfly. Join me, Frank Vasquez, in our latest episode as I discuss listener questions and share insights on choosing between Invesco's RSP and traditional options like SPY or VOO. I'll also revisit my preference for the small-cap value ETF VIOV over VBR, emphasizing the advantages of the S&P 600 index's unique profitability filter. This episode is packed with knowledge to help you refine your portfolio allocation strategies, with a special focus on the role of managed futures and their influence on compound annual growth rates and drawdowns.Shatter the myth of bucket strategies as we confront their limitations in mitigating sequence of returns risk. Drawing on Bill Bengen's studies, I argue that excessive cash allocations hinder performance more than they help. We explore the psychological allure of bucket strategies and suggest that true financial security lies in prudent spending rather than complex asset arrangements. Tune in as we offer a fresh perspective on managing your financial future, challenging conventional wisdom and emphasizing smarter, evidence-based approaches to portfolio management. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting, this episode promises valuable insights and a chance to rethink traditional investment strategies.Support the show

In this episode we conduct our annual reviews of the Eight Sample Portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio and compare them with some commercial preparations.In addition we discuss the year of 2024 in general, the performance of various asset classes, the follies of using the year as a crystal ball to predict the future, and the more effective use of base rates for that purpose.  And the missing Santa Claus.Links:Portfolio Charts Annual Returns Calculator:  Annual Returns – Portfolio ChartsTestfolio Backtesting and Analysis Site:  testfol.ioAmusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Uncover the secrets to constructing a resilient investment portfolio while sidestepping the pitfalls of misguided financial predictions. Join me, Frank Vasquez, as I humorously dissect the world of economic forecasts and their accuracy, or lack thereof. Through a historical lens, we’ll examine past events like the 1970s inflation scare and the 1990s dot-com bubble, revealing the wisdom in relying on historical base rates for more stable predictions. This episode promises to arm you with critical insights from Morgan Housel and transform your understanding of market trends, using relatable analogies like dice rolls to make the probabilities clear and engaging.Engage with a treasure trove of data as we review eight sample portfolios, shedding light on the roller-coaster performances of various assets over the past year. From the triumphs of large-cap growth stocks and gold to the contrasting fates of different sectors, discover the vital role of diversification. With a focus on both domestic and international opportunities, I outline the highs and lows, such as the standout performance of the MAG-7 and the challenges faced by REITs, while emphasizing the benefits of a diversified portfolio.Finally, I unravel the performance of diverse investment strategies, including risk parity models and experimental leveraged portfolios. Unpack the complexities of asset allocations and the unique challenges posed by leverage, with insights into the successes and lessons learned. To wrap it up, I weave in a playful narrative about a year without Santa Claus, illustrating the importance of cautious investing amidst unexpected events. This episode blends finance, storytelling, and critical insights into an entertaining and informative package that promises to captivate both seasoned investors and newcomers alike.Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Kyle, Adam, and Steve.  We discuss equal weight vs. cap weighted funds and the fallacy that one fund stock portfolios are optimal, a variable withdrawal strategy plan, and what kinds of portfolios work best for which types of people and purposes.And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional Links: Father McKenna Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterShannon's Demon Article:  Unexpected Returns: Shannon's Demon & the Rebalancing Bonus – Portfolio ChartsPortfolio Charts Retirement Spending Calculator:  Retirement Spending – Portfolio Charts2024 Morningstar Report Analyzing Variable Withdrawal Strategies:  State_of_Retirement_Income_2024.pdfSwedroe Factor Investing Book:  Book Review: Your Complete Guide to Factor-Based Investing | CFA Institute Enterprising InvestorMerriman Best In Class ETFs:  Best-in-Class ETF Recommendations | Merriman Financial Education FoundationAmusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Step into the world of Risk Parity Radio, where we unravel the mysteries of asset allocations and personal finance. Ever wonder how equal weight differs from cap-weighted index ETFs? We promise to guide you through this intriguing comparison, emphasizing the importance of utilizing multiple funds for a comprehensive market strategy. Together with my co-host Mary, we explore how concepts like Modern Portfolio Theory and Shannon's Demon can elevate your portfolio's performance beyond a single-fund approach. And, in a nod to community spirit, we encourage our listeners to support the Father McKenna Center, weaving philanthropy into our financial discourse.This episode goes beyond the basics, challenging the notion that one-size-fits-all in the world of investing. We dissect the benefits of combining growth and value funds, and highlight the risk management advantages of cap-weighted ETFs. Our heartfelt retirement segment touches on a listener's email about crafting a sustainable portfolio through variable withdrawal strategies. We navigate the nuances of personal inflation adjustments, equipping you with the tools to fortify your financial future. Join us as we counter cognitive biases and fine-tune strategies to align investments with economic realities, ensuring that your financial journey is as robust as it is rewarding.Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from John, Jane and Christoph.  We discuss financial and non-financial considerations when transitioning to retirement, the alternative investment strategy fund QSPNX, and revisit why you should not try to time bond investments anymore than you should try to time the stock market. And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional Links:  Choose FI Episode 508 With Yours Truly:  508 | 5% SWR, Revealed Preferences, and the 3 Stories | Frank Vasquez QSPNX Fund Summary:  AQRFunds - AQR Style Premia Alternative FundQSPNX Main Page:  AQR Style Premia Alternative Fund - QSPNXAmusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:What if your retirement could be as thrilling as a holiday adventure? Tune into our pre-Christmas special on Risk Parity Radio, where we unravel the secrets to crafting a financially stable and fulfilling retirement. Join us as we dissect eight unique sample portfolios, responding to John’s burning questions about transitioning to a risk parity approach. We celebrate John’s upcoming retirement by sharing actionable insights from personal experiences, setting the stage for a journey filled with financial clarity and exciting new opportunities.Ever wondered how to make your retirement years truly rewarding? Discover the art of lifestyle planning as we weigh the merits of covered call strategies against the traditional buy-and-hold approach. From embarking on early adventure travels to finding joy in volunteering or teaching, we guide you in aligning your financial strategies with your life goals. This is not just about numbers; it's about crafting a retirement that's as enriching as it is financially sound, ensuring your golden years shine brightly.As we wrap up, we dive into the AQR Style Premia Alternative Fund's niche role in a risk parity portfolio. With a pinch of humor and a dash of nostalgia, we navigate listener emails, including a lighthearted reflection on childhood mishaps and classroom blunders. We end on a playful note, reminding you to embrace the imperfections and enjoy the whimsical side of life. Remember, while our advice aims to enlighten, always turn to your trusted advisors for personalized guidance.Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Cy, Lucas, and Rafa.  We discuss a poem from a financial advisor, a quandary between two gambling problem leveraged portfolios and application of the Macro-allocation Principle, and what to do about a trust with an abbreviated distribution timeline.Note, we forgot to include the second email from Lucas, but it was just yet another reference to the Cederburg paper that has already been beaten like a dead horse.Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterCederburg Paper redux (revised December 2024):  Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice by Aizhan Anarkulova, Scott Cederburg, Michael S. O'Doherty :: SSRNAmusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:What happens when AI and financial advice collide in unexpected ways? Join me, Frank Vasquez, as I share an amusing tale of a birthday poem that might just have been crafted by a robot for my client, Randolph. We dive into the hilarious side of AI-generated content and how it intersects with personal finance, pondering the sincerity of such personalized gestures. Alongside these playful musings, we explore listener inquiries, prioritizing those supporting our cherished Father McKenna Center, and trace the ripples of AI's growing role in financial advisory services.Ever wondered if your investment portfolio could use a strategic shake-up or if classic Western films still hold a place in today's world? We tackle these questions by examining the pros and cons of composite versus aggressive asset class funds, unraveling the complexities of leveraging investments. As a palate cleanser, we venture into a nostalgic realm, reminiscing about the enduring legacies of Western film icons like Gene Autry and Randolph Scott. Their timeless appeal serves as a reminder of past cinematic glory, offering a perfect blend of finance, nostalgia, and entertainment without crossing into the realm of legal or tax advice. Tune in for an engaging journey through these fascinating topics!Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Ed, Wes and Mary Anne.  We revisit the momentum factor and squeeze that lemon a bit (and our dinner with the Dude) talk about mid-caps and limited 401k options, and discuss some of the information on the portfolios page at the website (and its limitations).And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterTest Folio Analysis of Large Cap Growth And Momentum Funds:  testfol.io/analysis?s=aBroPEsxfLpTest Folio Analysis of Small Cap Value With Momentum:  testfol.io/analysis?s=fjwv647o2PUAmusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Can a simple shift in investment strategy transform your portfolio's performance? Explore the power of momentum factors with us in this episode of Risk Parity Radio. We unpack a listener's question on how momentum could enhance a diversified mix of large cap growth, small cap value, long-term government bonds, gold, and rental properties. Delve into the nuances of funds like MTUM and QMOM, and discover whether they offer a meaningful edge over traditional large cap growth options. We promise you'll leave with a clearer understanding of when momentum factors might be a game-changer for your investment strategy.Navigating the complex world of portfolio performance metrics can be daunting. With insights from listener Mary Ann's query, we dissect the intricacies of interpreting performance charts and the importance of total return over an income-only focus. Our conversation touches on tools like Testfolio and Portfolio Visualizer, essential for a consistent, long-term analysis. Don't miss our take on the festive phenomenon known as the Santa Claus rally and how it might impact your financial decisions this December.As we wrap up, join us for a weekly portfolio performance review, where we assess both traditional and experimental portfolio setups. From the All Seasons to the new Optra portfolio, discover the latest trends and strategies. Stick around for our quirky sign-off and find out how you can interact with us, sharing your thoughts and questions. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just curious about optimizing your financial future, this episode is packed with insights and a sprinkle of humor to keep things lively.Support the show

In this episode we answer email from Pankaj, Matthias and Iain.  We discuss the simple path to withdrawals when you are over-saved and the over-complications of the over-saved, reprise some information about leveraged accumulation portfolios and provide some tips for a U.K listener.Links:Interview of Jim Grubman: Dr. Jim Grubman: The Psychology of Wealth | Rational Reminder 282PensionCraft YouTube Channel:  What Is The Safe Withdrawal Rate In Retirement?Many Happy Returns Podcast:  Building a Bulletproof Retirement Portfolio, with Tyler from Portfolio Charts - Many Happy ReturnsAmusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:  Could a simple tweak to your investment strategy unlock enhanced withdrawal rates and bolster your legacy savings? We unravel the misconceptions surrounding risk parity portfolios and explore how they truly aim to balance asset risk profiles, not just maximize safe withdrawal rates. Discover innovative portfolios like the golden butterfly and golden ratio designed to potentially boost your financial freedom, especially if your spending is comfortably below 3%. For those more focused on long-term growth, we share Warren Buffett’s straightforward approach: a mix of 90% S&P 500 and 10% T-bills. Join us as we also highlight the conservative investment habits of financial minds like William Bernstein and Bill Bengen, and the irony of their attraction to simplicity amidst complex financial strategies. We explore the power of leveraging portfolios for high risk tolerance investors with long horizons, discussing how concentration and leverage could elevate your returns. Practical advice on setting up a leveraged portfolio is on the docket, along with the risks you need to consider. Remember, this engaging episode is purely for your entertainment and enlightenment, not financial guidance.Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Ashley, Alexi (a/k/a "the Dude"), and Sean.  We discuss our charity and my financial coaching on the side, fun times with the Dude, and an overview of the use of bonds in a portfolio and principles of portfolio construction.  For reference, earlier bond episodes mentioned are 14, 16, 75 and 78, 142, 186 and 232, although there are others you can find on the RSS feed page.And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterChooseFI Podcast With Yours Truly:  194 | The Role of Bonds in a Portfolio | With FrankPortfolio Visualizer Monte Carlo Simulator:  Monte Carlo SimulationPortfolio Charts Portfolio Matrix Calculator:  Portfolio Matrix – Portfolio ChartsTestfolio Site:  testfol.ioAmusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Ever wondered how to optimize your portfolio during the distribution phase of your financial journey? Picture this: you're sitting at a cozy dive bar, sipping your favorite drink, while we unravel the art of asset allocation in a way that's both enlightening and entertaining. Join me as I share Ashley's inspiring story, a listener who not only hit an impressive milestone of three million dollars in liquid assets but also made a generous donation to the Father McKenna Center. Her journey is a testament to the power of community and the surprising impact of employer matching in charitable giving.Brace yourself for a lively tête-à-tête on financial consultation and strategy, complete with tales of delightful dinners and the irreplaceable warmth of human interaction. Discover how a simple evening out with listener Alexi turned into a treasure trove of insights into building portfolios that cater to substantial spending for loved ones. Amidst the laughter and pop culture references, you'll hear musings on AI's role in podcasting and why the human touch remains a cherished component of our discussions in an automated world.As we meander through the intricacies of bond investing, prepare to challenge conventional wisdom with modern tools like Portfolio Visualizer and Monte Carlo simulations. We'll explore the nuances of bond ETFs and strategic cash allocations, advocating for a more nuanced approach to retirement planning. From understanding the dynamics between stocks and bonds to critiquing typical cash hoarding habits, this episode promises a hearty mix of humor, insight, and practical advice. So grab a seat, and let's embark on this journey to demystify investment strategies while keeping it all delightfully entertaining.Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Justin, Matt and Donald.  We regale in friendships, revisit large cap growth funds with IWY, do a reprise of Episode 238 about the limitations of CAPE ratios with the help of AI podcasters, and discuss the purpose of treasury bonds in a portfolio as recession insurance, and the circumstances of when you might not need it.Links:Father McKenna Center Lessons & Carols:  Lessons and Carols - Father McKenna CenterFather McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterComparison of QQQ, VUG and IWY:  testfol.io/analysis?s=6uPSB8ZpIIREpisode 238:  Podcast | Risk Parity Radio Episode 238Pinwheel Portfolio:  Pinwheel Portfolio – Portfolio ChartsAmusing AI-Bot SummaryWhat if you could navigate the complex world of asset allocation with confidence? Discover the secrets to mastering large-cap growth funds as we share an email from Justin, who pits QQQ, VUG, and IWY against each other, revealing why IWY takes the crown for concentrated growth. As we reminisce about the insightful posts on the Risk Parity Chronicles blog, we also invite you to join us in supporting the Father McKenna Center through our charity event. This episode is a blend of foundational investment principles and community spirit, perfect for both new and seasoned listeners.Ever wondered how useful the CAPE ratio really is for your retirement plan? We tackle this question head-on, weighing its stability in stock market valuations against its pitfalls in predicting short-term and sector-specific performances. Our conversation highlights the importance of a diversified, flexible portfolio that aligns with your personal values and long-term goals. With insights from the Fama-French model and behavioral economics, we aim to equip you with strategies that mitigate biases and enhance financial decision-making.Feeling puzzled about the role of long-term treasury bonds in your portfolio? Our discussion, inspired by an email from Donald in the U.S. Navy, examines their necessity as recession insurance and deflation hedges. We trace the evolution of risk parity portfolios, emphasizing the significance of diverse assets in navigating economic uncertainties. Lastly, indulge in a light-hearted reflection on love and technology, as we celebrate connections that transcend the digital realm. Tune in for a heartfelt, humorous, and informative journey with Risk Parity Radio.Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from James, Van and Michael.   We discuss the new international fund in the federal TSP, the Pinwheel Portfolio and the Portfolio Matrix Tool, and variations in portfolio management with the Golden Butterfly portfolio. And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional Links:Father McKenna Center Lessons & Carols:  Lessons and Carols - Father McKenna CenterFather McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterArticle About New TSP International Fund:  What to Know About the New TSP I Fund | MorningstarMerriman Best In Class ETFs:  Best-in-Class ETF Recommendations | Merriman Financial Education FoundationPinwheel Portfolio:  Pinwheel Portfolio – Portfolio ChartsPortfolio Matrix Tool:  Portfolio Matrix – Portfolio ChartsAmusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Imagine stepping into a world where personal finance feels as cozy and welcoming as your favorite neighborhood bar. On this episode of Risk Parity Radio, hosted by Frank Vasquez, we tackle James' inquiry about the iFund in the Thrift Savings Plan, delving into its recent shifts, and why you might want to consider the C fund or other diversification paths beyond the TSP. The conversation takes an intriguing turn as we discuss how the mighty US dollar sways international investments, urging you to broaden your horizons for potentially richer outcomes.Join us for a colorful exploration of investment portfolios like the All-Seasons, Golden Butterfly, Golden Ratio, and Risk Parity Ultimate, each with their own flair and strategy. We navigate through last week's market waves, noting which portfolios are riding high and those that are weathering the storm. Venturing into the more adventurous terrain of leveraged funds, we underscore both the thrill and the risks involved. Frank also shares a touch of personal wisdom from his mother's sayings, reminding us that life's journey is full of unpredictable twists—just like the world of investments. Connect with Frank via email or the Risk Parity Radio website, and remember, while we're here to entertain and inform, your financial decisions deserve tailored advice from your trusted experts.Support the show