Betting on Chaos

Citrini Research has taken Fintwit by storm with a series of prescient market calls covering themes such as AI, GLP-1, and the Trump election.In this episode Citrini discusses how he arrived at thematic investing, the process he uses to find baskets of stocks, and also what it’s like to write up a thesis for tens of thousands of subscribers.Find Citrini on Substack.Find Citrini on Twitter.Support the show by subscribing to the Premium Substack: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/p/new-episode-big-chunky-changes?r=ckepvEmail the show: risk of ruin pod at gmailFollow the show on Twitter: @halfkelly

Domer is a prediction market trader, and is one of the biggest bettors on Polymarket. He talks about his journey from Intrade, to Predictit, to Polymarket. He also talks about the 2024 election, which was a rollercoaster. It featured highs - like backing Kamala Harris before President Joe Biden had even dropped out of the race - and also lows, like being short Trump on election night.Domer also talks about unraveling the mystery of the so-called French Whale.Domer on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/profile/0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344Domer on Twitter: https://x.com/DomahhhhSupport the show by subscribing on Substack: https://riskofruinpod.substack.comFollow the show on Twitter: https://x.com/halfkelly

Jake Hoselton is the CEO of Grass Clippings. Pete Wilson is the CMO of Grass Clippings. Howard Lindzon is the Managing Partner of Social Leverage.The guests talk about trying to build a new high stakes par 3 golf league.Links:2024 Grass Clippings Openhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cX0ktag2kA2024 Good Good Desert Openhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PE7t7K173-UFollow Grass Clippings on X (formerly Twitter):https://x.com/GrassClippingscFollow Howard Lindzon on X (formerly Twitter):https://x.com/howardlindzonFollow the show on X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/halfkellySupport the show links:https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YTMUqap_Z0D9832cOl5wYxUs16Byr6xx-iAZzrRL3VU/edit

Curtis, Phil, and Reilly are professional sports bettors that provide the valuable service of getting down for originating groups. They are logistics providers in the gambling world. They talk about starting as casino APs, finding sports, and having several hundred thousand dollars taken from them by a  sportsbook.Find Reilly on X. https://twitter.com/ValleyBlitz_15Support the show credit card links: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YTMUqap_Z0D9832cOl5wYxUs16Byr6xx-iAZzrRL3VU/edit?usp=sharingEmail us: risk of ruin pod at gmailFollow on X: https://twitter.com/halfkelly

Matt writes the blog "Miles Earn and Burn" which stands alone in the credit card space. He has no ads on the site, and he writes about advanced strategies that don't make it into the mainstream travel blog world. The post that got me interested in having Matt as a guest said basically: go to your local credit union and see if there's anything that you might be able to profit from. In the advantage play world that would be called scouting. In the manufactured spend world it's known as probing. https://milesearnandburn.com/index.php/2023/09/29/taking-a-stroll-to-the-local-financial-district/Email the show: risk of ruin pod at gmailFollow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly

Mr. Doppy became an advantage player hustling the video poker game Ultimate X. Since then he's gone after online sports books, credit card points, and also a state lottery.Mr. Doppy's Twitter account: https://twitter.com/MrDoppySupport the show links: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YTMUqap_Z0D9832cOl5wYxUs16Byr6xx-iAZzrRL3VU/editEmail the show: Risk of ruin pod at gmail dot comFollow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly

Richard Munchkin and Darryl Purpose are career advantage players. Over the past 40 years they've teamed up to win millions of dollars from casinos. In this episode they recount some of the war stories and also offer reflections on the nature of teamwork.Darryl Purpose's music website: https://darrylpurpose.com/Richard Munchkin / Gambing With an Edge: https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/category/podcast/Earlier episode of Risk of Ruin featuring Richard and Darryl: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/david-goliath-part-i/id1527018692?i=1000493338179James Grosjean's "Beyond Coupons": https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/beyondcouponsbjfo.pdfEmail the show: risk of ruin pod at gmailFollow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly

John Hempton runs Bronte Capital, which generates its excess returns primarily through shorting fraudulent companies. John walks through a hypothetical short, explaining how they find it, how they size positions, and the kinds of returns that can be expected. He also discusses his shorts of Valeant Pharmaceutical and Wirecard.John Hempton on Twitter: https://twitter.com/John_HemptonJohn's Blog: http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/Netflix documentary on Valeant: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7909184/Email the show: [email protected] the show on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly

Marc Cohodes made a living exposing fraudulent companies, and profiting when their stock prices collapsed. But the life of a short seller is spent on a high wire because executives willing to engage in fraud don't play by the rules when their freedom is at stake. Marc tells the stories of the adversity he's faced holding public companies accountable. Marc recounts the war stories from his shorts of iomega, TCBY, Lernout & Hauspie, Novastar Financial, Jos. A Bank, Bally Manufacturing, Direct Focus, and more.Follow Marc on Twitter: @alderlaneeggsMarc's Mimedx Website: http://petiteparkerthebarker.com/Email the show: [email protected]: @halfkelly

Houyi went from Yale Law School to a job in finance before he left it all behind to become a professional advantage player. He talks about counting cards, learning to play hole cards, traveling the world, and a fateful poker game in Cambodia.Email the show: [email protected] us on Twitter: @halfkelly