Carry Analysis - Small vs Large Universe

In this episode, Adam Butler is joined by Harley Bassman, Managing Partner at Simplify Asset Management, for a wide-ranging discussion on interest rate volatility, portfolio construction, and public policy. Bassman explains his creation of the MOVE Index before diving into strategies using long-dated options to create asymmetric payoffs. They also explore the systematic risks that challenge diversified portfolios during Fed policy inflection points. The conversation concludes with Bassman's strong case against the re-privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, detailing the potential negative consequences for the housing market.Topics Discussed• The creation and mechanics of the MOVE Index as a VIX for the bond market• Explaining complex financial derivatives by drawing analogies to fundamental physics concepts• Constructing highly asymmetric, long-term trades based on the shape of the yield curve• The failure of traditional diversification during major inflection points in Federal Reserve policy• The paradigm shift to passive investing flows overriding traditional market valuation metrics• A new trade idea involving a positive-carry call option on Treasury rates as a recession hedge• The evolution of portfolio tools like Return Stacking and derivative-based ETFs• Identifying U.S. immigration policy as the most significant and overlooked macroeconomic risk• The public policy argument against the re-privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

In this episode, Rodrigo Gordillo, Mike Philbrick, and Adam Butler explore the timely relevance of managed futures, examining why the current macroeconomic environment may be particularly favorable for these strategies. They discuss recent drawdowns, the uncorrelated nature of trend and carry strategies, and the importance of diversification. The conversation also covers the benefits of strategic overlaying in portfolios, the impact of policy shocks, and the potential for managed futures to add value in various market conditions, including inflationary periods.Topics Discussed• The recent, challenging drawdown period for both trend and carry managed futures strategies• Behavioral hurdles of investing in strategies that hit new highs infrequently, leading to investor fatigue• The strong macro case for diversification due to concentrated U.S. equity portfolios and potential inflation• The physical resource demand from the AI boom creating potential trends in commodities and energy• The role of managed futures in capturing global trends beyond commodities, including international equities and currencies• The argument that the fundamental drivers for trend and carry remain intact despite recent performance• Utilizing Return Stacking to reduce tracking error and make it easier to hold diversifiers long-term

In this episode, Rodrigo Gordillo, President of ReSolve Asset Management Global, and Mike Philbrick, CEO of ReSolve Asset Management Global unpack Ric Edelman’s bold argument for allocating 10–40% of a portfolio to Bitcoin. They explore how Bitcoin is evolving from a fringe asset to a foundational one, discuss its role alongside gold, and examine the structural shifts—from regulatory clarity to ETF innovation—that are driving institutional adoption. If you're rethinking diversification in a changing economic landscape, this conversation delivers the key insights.Topics Discussed• Differentiating Bitcoin and gold as scarce, non-cash flow assets that offer distinct diversification benefits• The role of regulatory clarity and its accelerating impact on institutional and advisor adoption of Bitcoin• Return stacking techniques that allow alternative assets like Bitcoin and gold to be layered on top of traditional cash-flow portfolios• Key insights from the Ric Edelman paper regarding Bitcoin’s portfolio allocation and the existence of a measurable risk premium• Portfolio construction strategies, including equal risk contribution approaches between Bitcoin and gold• Analyzing the impact of Bitcoin’s volatility on overall portfolio risk metrics and diversification outcomes• Innovations in digital asset accessibility through ETFs, buffered ETFs, and curated crypto index solutions• The evolving investment narrative for Bitcoin as a global asset amidst shifting economic and fiscal paradigms

In this episode of ReSolve Riffs, host Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo welcome Mark Valek, partner at Incrementum AG and co-author of the acclaimed In Gold We Trust report. Mark, a seasoned macro investor with decades of expertise at the intersection of gold, monetary policy, and systemic risk, offers deep insights into the evolving roles of gold and Bitcoin. The discussion covers a diverse range of topics including macro investing, fiscal dominance, central bank gold accumulation, innovative portfolio allocations, and the emergence of Bitcoin as digital gold.Topics Discussed• Gold as a superior store of value with a stable stock-to-flow ratio• The impact of central bank gold accumulation amid global financial uncertainty• Fiscal dominance, counterparty risks, and the influence of geopolitical tensions• Future gold price scenarios and detailed long-term predictions under varying inflation conditions• The evolution of Bitcoin as a digital alternative to traditional gold• Reimagining the classic 60/40 portfolio with an emphasis on hard assets• Practical investor guidance on asset allocation strategies and risk management

ReSolve Riffs returns with a deep dive into the world of alternative assets, featuring Mike Philbrick—CEO of ReSolve Asset Management and co-founder of Return Stacked® ETFs, and Rodrigo Gordillo, President of ReSolve Asset Management and co-founder of Return Stacked® ETFs, both of whom are recognized voices in asset management and diversification. In this engaging episode, Mike and Rodrigo explore a broad range of topics, including gold’s structural fundamentals, bitcoin’s emerging role, portfolio diversification techniques, behavioral biases, and the macro trends shaping global investment strategies.Topics DiscussedStructural fundamentals and the historical role of gold as a monetary assetInstitutional shifts and the public adoption phase in gold investingComparative analysis of gold versus bitcoin in today’s marketPortfolio diversification through equal risk contribution and return stackingBehavioral influences and challenges in market timing and allocationThe impact of central banks, emerging markets, and global macro trends on gold demandLeveraged products, futures, and the risks associated with volatility dragStrategic portfolio construction using non-correlated assets for enhanced returns

In this episode, Rodrigo Gordillo sits down with Rafael Ortega, a distinguished Spanish investor and Senior Investment Fund Manager at Andbank Wealth Management. Known for pioneering innovative portfolio solutions in Spain—from the classic permanent portfolio to advanced return stacking and off-road strategies—Rafael discusses a wide range of topics including diversification, structural risk balancing, leveraging, regulatory hurdles, and the future of portable alpha in today’s dynamic markets.Topics DiscussedRafael Ortega’s journey from engineering to a transformative investment philosophyThe evolution of the permanent portfolio strategy into a modern diversified approachStructural diversification and risk balancing using all-weather return stackingCustomizing portfolio volatility through post-diversification leverageOvercoming operational and regulatory hurdles in Europe’s investment landscapeThe integration of trend following, carry, and other non-traditional diversifiersCommunicating advanced diversification concepts to retail investorsThe future outlook for portable alpha and return stacking in an evolving regulatory framework

ReSolve Riffs returns with Julian Brigden, the president and founder of MI2 Partners, who joins the conversation as a seasoned market strategist and global macro expert. In this episode, Julian and his co-hosts Adam Butler and Richard Laterman dissect a broad range of topics—from U.S. exceptionalism and dollar dynamics to treasury market vulnerabilities and the complex interplay of global capital flows. The discussion navigates themes such as fiscal deficits, policy shifts, asset rotations, and geopolitical recalibrations that are reshaping the global financial landscape.Topics Discussed• U.S. exceptionalism and the reflexive cycle of capital inflows, hyper-financialization, and current account imbalances• Policy triggers and market cycles driven by the Trump administration’s tariff measures and shifting economic narratives• Dollar performance and its impact on global purchasing power, equity valuations, and hedging dynamics• Structural challenges in the U.S. Treasury market, fiscal dominance, and the looming implications of elevated deficits• Global capital flows and the divergence in behavior between sovereign investors and private market participants• Comparative dynamics across asset classes, including equity market rotations, emerging market opportunities, and the role of commodities• Geopolitical recalibrations driven by U.S. retrenchment from European defense commitments and the evolving Middle Eastern investments• Divergent monetary policy challenges in key economies, especially Japan’s yield curve control and the risks of fiscal dominance

Tired of Clients Chasing Returns?Learn how Return Stacked® Global Balanced & Macro ETF (RGBM) aims to provide diversification in a way that helps manage client (mis-)behavior.As financial advisors, we know clients struggle to stay the course with liquid diversifying investments, especially when 60/40 portfolios have been strong.RGBM ETF offers a solution: a 100% global balanced strategy stacked with an additional 100% systematic macro strategy. This 2 for 1 combination is designed to help deliver the diversification your clients may need in a solution they can actually stick to.In this podcast, we explore how RGBM’s unique 'return stacking' approach can improve portfolio resilience and client outcomes. Learn how it minimizes the behavioral challenges of owning diversifying assets.How RGBM seeks to provide diversification that can help clients stay invested, even when traditional assets are performing well.The power of 'return stacking': Combining a global balanced allocation & a systematic macro strategy.Why systematic macro may improve portfolio performance during equity drawdowns and inflationary periods.How to use RGBM as an overlay to your strategic portfolio for capital efficiency.This podcast may be suitable for: Investment professionals and financial advisors seeking innovative solutions for client portfolio diversification and behavioral risk management.

In this episode of ReSolve Riffs, host Rodrigo Gordillo is joined by Riccardo Gambineri, President at Crown Global Life Insurance Group, and Frank Seneco, President at Seneco Global Advisors. The discussion delves into sophisticated wealth planning solutions with a focus on private placement life insurance, comparing U.S., U.K., and offshore products while addressing topics such as asset protection, tax deferral, and strategic estate planning.Topics Discussed• Differences in Private Placement Life Insurance across Jurisdictions and Regulatory Frameworks• Investment Flexibility and Portfolio Diversification within PPLI Structures• Regulatory Compliance and Jurisdictional Challenges in Domestic and Offshore Markets• Mechanics of Policy Borrowing, Interest Rates, and Accessing Cash Value• Asset Protection and Creditor Shielding Advantages of Offshore Policies• Transparent Cost Structures and the Value Proposition of PPLI versus U.K. Bonds• Tax Implications, Deferral Mechanisms, and Estate Planning Strategies• Integrating Comprehensive Family Governance and Customized Advisory Solutions

In this discussion, Adam Butler, CIO of ReSolve Asset Management Global, a seasoned expert in multi‑asset carry strategies, walks through his latest research comparing two implementations of a carry strategy. He explains the fundamentals of carry in diverse asset classes and explores a wide range of topics including carry fundamentals, market liquidity, simulation analysis, historical cycles, and portfolio strategy, all while putting recent market performance into a broader cyclical context.Topics Discussed• Carry strategy fundamentals and the yield dynamics across various asset classes• Comparison between a small, highly liquid 26‑market universe and an extended universe of up to 80 markets• Detailed statistical analysis using historical simulations and probability cones• Examination of recent performance divergences between liquid and broader market universes• The influential role of soft commodities and other non‑liquid market segments on carry returns• Historical patterns of divergence and subsequent reversion in carry strategy performance• Implications for long‑term investment strategies and tactical portfolio management