All things US: midterms, Fed and the dollar

In this filmed episode the hosts are joined by Jim Reid (Global Head of Macro and Thematic Research). After reviewing the latest developments in energy, equity, and fixed income space, the trio discuss in detail what’s next for AI and markets. Jim first shares his views on AI’s potential boost to productivity and its impact on jobs. He then provides some context around AI’s increasingly debt-financed expansion and its implications for risk assets, before concluding with some thoughts on the wider fiscal impact of higher yields and potential for bond vigilantes to resurface.

In this edition of Rate Check, the hosts are joined by Parag Thatte, and cover the current earnings season, what the midterm elections mean, and why equities have been so resilient in the face of higher bond yields.

In the latest episode of Rate Check, the hosts are joined first by Yacine Rouimi (European economist) and Michael Hsueh (Oil strategist). They discuss the recent market moves around France, including an historic widening of the French-German 10yr government bond yield spread. They then move onto the global energy market, where they consider the outlook for oil prices amidst geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

In the latest episode of Rate Check, the hosts are joined first by Oliver Harvey (Head of CEEMEA and LatAM FX research). They start by discussing the rise in US yields above 5%, and why its drivers make for a more cautious outlook on EM FX. The trio then discuss the series of global supply shocks and its policy implications. In the second half of the episode, the hosts are then joined by Shoki Omori (Chief Japan Fixed Income Strategist). They discuss the takeaways from last week’s Bank of Japan rate hike, the key drivers of Japanese rates going forward, and the interesting normalisation of inflation domestically.

In the latest episode of Rate Check, the hosts are joined by Mark Wall (Chief European Economist) and Ioannis Sokos (Senior Rates Strategist). They discuss the forthcoming ECB meeting and why global and European developments now leave the risks skewed towards two more hikes this year. With Ioannis, they then discuss what’s next for Bund yields and why his bias remains for curve steepening from here. Finally, they ask whether it may be a case of “too cheap, too soon” for OATs after the weakness over the summer.

In the latest episode of Rate Check, the hosts are joined first by Matt Luzzetti (Chief US Economist). They discuss the implications of recent US data for the Fed outlook, look ahead to Fed Chair Warsh’s address at the Jackson Hole Symposium, and the US Treasury’s recent announcement of long-end bond buybacks. The hosts are then joined by Perry Kojodjojo (Asia Macro Strategists) to discuss all things Korea. They start with the booming global demand for Korean goods, before turning to the constructive medium-term outlook for the won.

In the latest episode of Rate Check, the hosts are joined by Francis Yared (Global Head of Rates Research) and Mallika Sachdeva (Head of FX Thematics). They discuss recent developments in global markets, with a focus on rates, what’s happening in Japan, and the US Dollar.

In the latest episode of Rate Check, the hosts are joined by Brett Ryan (US Economist) and Tim Baker (Head of Americas FX Research). They discuss the latest trends in global markets, before focusing on the key events in the US in coming weeks and months. They discuss whether a hawkish Fed is already priced into the dollar ahead of next week’s inflation print, before looking further ahead to the US midterm elections and their importance for markets.

In the latest episode of Rate Check, the hosts are joined by Helen Belopolsky (Global Head of Geopolitical Research) and Matt Raskin (US Head of Rates Research) to discuss the two main drivers of markets in recent weeks: the interim US-Iran deal and the hawkish Fed meeting. The discussion focuses on how events in the Middle East could unfold in the coming weeks and months, and the implications for the rates market from Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair.

In the latest episode of Rate Check, the hosts are joined by Robin Winkler (Chief German Economist). They discuss the latest trends in global markets, before focusing on the German economic outlook. The trio then discuss the key risk events to watch over the coming weeks, including Kevin Warsh’s first monetary policy meeting as Fed Chair and a unique referendum in Switzerland