US Market Open: Stocks and crude a touch firmer, TSMC beats, raises FY guide

Israel and Lebanon 10-day ceasefire took effect from 17:00EDT on Thursday. Despite this, reports indicate that Israel bombed several villages in southern Lebanon after announcing the ceasefire agreement.US President Trump said the Iran war is going swimmingly and should be ending pretty soon, added going to see some incredible results.European bourses mixed; US equity futures remain near ATHs, NFLX slips after maintaining guidance and co-founder stepping down.DXY slightly softer, G10s mixed, GBP unreactive on UK politics.Global fixed benchmarks broadly unchanged awaiting Fed speak.Crude pressured despite light newsflow, Israel/Lebanon ceasefire shows fragility.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Housing Starts (Mar). Speakers include BoE's Pill, Fed’s Daly, Barkin & Waller. Earnings from State Street. Credit Reviews include Morningstar DBRS reviews credit rating on the EU and Italy.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said they are making a lot of progress on Iran, and he is not sure the ceasefire needs to be extended, while he added that Iran is willing to do things today they previously weren't.US President Trump said he had excellent conversations with Lebanon’s President Aoun and Israeli PM Netanyahu, while he announced that the leaders agreed to formally begin a 10-day ceasefire from 17:00EDT on Thursday.Israeli security official said the military has no plans to withdraw forces from Southern Lebanon during a ceasefire.A source told Al-Mayadeen that starting Friday, at noon (10:00BST) anyone wishing to cross Bab al-Mandab should be more vigilant than ever before in all six directions, while other reports noted that the warning was made by a resistance commander.APAC stocks were mostly lower; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2%.Looking ahead, highlights include Italian Balance of Trade (Feb), Canadian Housing Starts (Mar). Speakers include BoE's Breeden & Pill, Fed’s Daly, Barkin & Waller. Earnings from State Street. Credit Reviews include Morningstar DBRS reviews credit rating on the EU and Italy.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The Trump administration's goal is to bring both sides to the brink of an overarching deal to end the conflict that can then be pushed over the finish line in a second face-to-face meeting.A military advisor to the Islamic Revolution Leader says Iranian Armed Forces’ launchers are ready to hit American warships and sink all of them, Press TV reported.European bourses printing mild gains, TSMC earnings lift the tech sector; US equity futures muted just shy of ATHs.DXY cautiously firms, JPY pares verbal intervention strength while GBP unreactive despite upside GDP surprise.Global benchmarks initially firmer, but hit as the risk tone deteriorated.Crude tilts higher as markets still await confirmation of any talks/ceasefire.Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobless Claims (Apr/11), Philly Fed Index (Apr), Industrial/Manufacturing Production (Mar), New Zealand Food Inflation (Mar), ECB Minutes (Mar). Speakers include Fed’s Williams & Miran, ECB’s Schnabel, Nagel & Lane, RBA’s Hunter & BoE’s Taylor. Earnings from Abbott, Charles Schwab, PepsiCo & Netflix.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The Trump administration's goal is to bring both sides to the brink of an overarching deal to end the conflict that can then be pushed over the finish line in a second face-to-face meeting.Iran could consider ships being able to sail through the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz without interference or attack as part of a deal with the US.Iran and the Pakistani mediator will discuss details of the messages exchanged between Tehran and Washington today.Israeli officials said their assessment was that the ceasefire in Lebanon could begin within days; Lebanese officials said a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was expected 'soon'.APAC stocks mostly gained; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.3%.Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP (Feb), Industrial Production (Feb), Italian HICP Final (Mar), EZ HICP Final (Mar), US Jobless Claims (Apr/11), Philly Fed Index (Apr), Industrial/Manufacturing Production (Mar), New Zealand Food Inflation (Mar), ECB Minutes (Mar) & SNB Minutes (Mar). Speakers include Fed’s Williams & Miran, ECB’s Schnabel, Nagel & Lane, RBA’s Hunter & BoE’s Taylor. Supply from Spain, France & UK, Earnings from TSMC, Abbott, Charles Schwab, PepsiCo, Netflix, Tesco & Pernod Ricard.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

AP reported that effort to extend the US-Iran ceasefire has made progress with mediators aiming to extend for at least another two weeks. Both sides gave an “in principle agreement” to extend the ceasefire.The Pentagon is sending thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days, WaPo reported citing US officials. This move aims to pressure Iran while the US mulls the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if the ceasefire breaks.European bourses mixed, Luxury suffers on KER FP and RMS FP while ASML raises FY guidance; US equity futures flat with Morgan Stanley and BofA ahead. DXY muted, GBP/USD retreats from 1.36 with UK GDP later in the week.Global fixed benchmarks trade cautiously awaiting President Trump and central bank speakers.Commodities tread water in anticipation of a second US-Iran meeting.Looking ahead, highlights include US Export/Import Prices (Mar), Fed Beige Book (Apr). Speakers include US President Trump, Fed’s Barr, Hammack & Bowman, ECB’s Lagarde, Cipollone, Nagel & Schnabel, BoE’s Bailey, Greene, SNB’s Schlegel, RBA’s Hauser & RBNZ's Breman. Earnings from Morgan Stanley and Bank of America.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he views the war as being very close to over, according to Fox.US President Trump said he isn't thinking about extending the ceasefire and doesn't think it will be necessary, according to reports citing an ABC reporter on X.US Vice President JD Vance said they are negotiating with Iran and the ceasefire is holding, while he also stated Iranian negotiators wanted to make a deal, and he feels good about where they are.US President Trump's full interview on Fox Business will be aired on April 15th at 06:00EDT/11:00BST.APAC stocks were mostly higher; European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1%Looking ahead, highlights include French HICP Final (Mar), EZ Industrial Production (Feb), US Export/Import Prices (Mar), Fed Beige Book (Apr). Speakers include Fed’s Barr & Bowman, ECB’s Lagarde, Cipollone & Schnabel, BoE’s Bailey, SNB’s Schlegel, RBA’s Hauser & RBNZ's Breman. Supply from Germany. Earnings from Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Hermes.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Next round of talks between US and Iran could take place this week or early next week, according to the Iranian embassy official in Pakistan.US VP Vance said we made some progress in Iran talks, and he wouldn't say things went wrong, while he added Iranians moved in our direction in talks, but not far enough.A US official said there is “continued engagement” with Iran and forward motion on trying to get to an agreement, while a senior US official also said talks between the US and Iran are continuing even now and there is progress in trying to reach an agreement, according to Axios.Energy eases amid continued reports of further US-Iran talks.Global equities gain on positive risk tone; US banks ahead.DXY soften, Kiwi continues to outperform while JPY helped modestly by reports BoJ is to increase price forecast.Fixed benchmarks gain, heavy speaker slate ahead. Looking ahead, highlights include US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Mar), ADP Weekly Change, PPI (Mar), South Korean Export/Import Prices (Mar), IMF World Economic Outlook Press Briefing (Apr). Speakers include BoE's Bailey & Greene, ECB's Lane, Cipollone & Lagarde, RBNZ's Breman, Fed's Goolsbee, Barr, Paulson, Collins & Barkin, Earnings from JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, Citi, J&J, Wells Fargo & Kering.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The US is reportedly eyeing a potential second round of in-person talks with Iran as the blockade takes hold, according to CNN.AP reported that the US and Iran could be headed toward a second round of talks, which could happen on Thursday.US VP Vance said we made some progress in Iran talks, and he wouldn't say things went wrong, while he added Iranians moved in our direction in talks, but not far enough.A US official said there is “continued engagement” with Iran and forward motion on trying to get to an agreement, while a senior US official also said talks between the US and Iran are continuing even now and there is progress in trying to reach an agreement, according to Axios.An IRGC spokesperson said that if the war continues, they will unveil capabilities that the enemy has no idea about, according to SNN.APAC stocks traded higher as risk sentiment was underpinned by hopes regarding US-Iran peace talks; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.4%.Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish CPIF Final (Mar), German Wholesale Prices (Mar), Spanish HICP Final (Mar), US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Mar), ADP Weekly Change, PPI (Mar), South Korean Export/Import Prices (Mar), IEA OMR (Apr), IMF World Economic Outlook Press Briefing (Apr). Speakers include BoE's Mann, Bailey & Greene, ECB's Lane, Cipollone & Lagarde, RBNZ's Breman, Fed's Goolsbee, Barr, Paulson, Collins & Barkin, Supply from the Netherlands & Germany. Earnings from JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, Citi, J&J, Wells Fargo, BMW & Kering.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The US delegation left US-Iran talks in Pakistan without an agreement after 21 hours of talks. As a response, US President Trump said the US Navy will begin the process of blockading any and all ships trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz, effective 10:00EDT/15:00BST.Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish mediators will continue talks with the US and Iran in the coming days, aiming to help close the gaps between US-Iran, Axios reported citing sources. All parties believe a deal is possible.Energy spikes, Brent returns above USD 100/bbl as Trump threatens Hormuz blockade.European bourses weaker but off worst levels, LHA GY suffer from another strike; US equity futures in the red.DXY firmer on haven demand, HUF surges on Tisza supermajority.Global fixed income hit as energy surges; busy speaker slate ahead. Looking ahead, highlights include US Existing Home Sales (Mar), OPEC MOMR (Apr). Speakers include ECB's de Guindos, RBA's Hauser & Fed's Miran. Earnings from Goldman Sachs & LVMH.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The US delegation, led by Vice President Vance, left US-Iran talks in Pakistan to return to the US without an agreement after 21 hours of talks.US President Trump said the US Navy will begin the process of blockading any and all ships trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz.US Central Command said it will begin implementing a blockade on all maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports on April 13th at 17:00 Israeli time (15:00BST/10:00EDT).Crude futures surged with Brent crude back above the USD 100/bbl level following the failure of US-Iran talks in Islamabad and with the US to begin a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.APAC stocks declined; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.4%, off worst levels.Looking ahead, highlights include US Existing Home Sales (Mar), OPEC MOMR (Apr). Speakers include ECB's de Guindos, RBA's Hauser & Fed's Miran. Earnings from Goldman Sachs & LVMH.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk